You can’t deny it anymore: the future of the motor vehicle industry is in emission reductions. While many naturally tie that future to electric vehicles, many automakers and a group of investing experts see a different product rising and stealing the multibillion-dollar market: “blue gas.”
First, credit where credit is due. The rising success of
Tesla Inc. (
NASDAQ:TSLA) has quieted a lot of naysayers decrying the electric vehicle market, and for good reason. What was once an expensive product with a very limited range has gotten cheaper, can go farther, and has more charging stations being set up by the day. That’s why basically every major car manufacturer has its own take and attempts at squashing Tesla’s electric vehicle dominance with their own models.
But while they’ve been resentfully building out their electric fleets, automakers have been not-so-quietly developing their own solution to carbon emissions. The products being developed still use gas, but one with zero harmful emissions. The gas in question is hydrogen, and for energy investors specifically, “blue” hydrogen.
What makes the “blue” version different than regular hydrogen is that it’s produced by a
carbon neutral process that uses natural gas alongside carbon capture and storage. It’s a big step up from the current “grey” hydrogen used by the majority of the market that doesn’t store the carbon, while not quite as hard to attain as “green” hydrogen created using renewable energy sources.
(Concept design of hydrogen generated and stored using renewable energy)
The benefits of vehicles that run on hydrogen fuel cells over electric vehicles are numerous, especially for the existing industry. The biggest benefits are in range and speed, as hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles have shown to have an increased range over Tesla’s vehicles on one tank, and they’re filled up like regular gas vehicles, a significant increase over the time it takes for a full EV battery charge.
That’s piqued the interest of long-haul vehicle fleets of trucks, buses, and trains. It’s a market that Tesla is desperate to enter, but the advantages of fuel-cell vehicles and simplicity in switching over from diesel machines has already won some contracts. On the train front, a zero-emission fuel-cell train
is being commissioned in southern California, and hydrogen-powered trains are already operating in Germany and coming to France and the UK.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (
NYSE:BUD) started
testing semi-tractor trucks from start-up
Nikola Motors, and the Port of Los Angeles signed a deal for
hydrogen fuel cell utility trucks from
Toyota Motor Corp. (
NYSE:TM).
In fact, Toyota is shaping up to be the biggest disrupter to the electric vehicle market by expanding the hydrogen vehicle market. Despite Tesla CEO Elon Musk
decrying fuel-cell tech as “mind-boggingly stupid” and not possible to achieve success, Toyota has
ramped up production of its Mirai fuel-cell sedan and invested in the installation of a hydrogen fill-up network.
Yet despite articles hailing hydrogen and blue gas as
Tesla’s largest threat and
biggest competitor, the hype is
incredibly forward-thinking and dependent on a number of factors. Electric vehicles have a massive first-mover advantage in the market, with more charging stations, better batteries, greater market penetration, and reduced prices compared to launch. Tesla’s investments in growing out the industry has started to yield profit, change, and most important of all for new vehicle types, normalcy. Meanwhile, for all of their advantages, hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles are more expensive than EVs and the network for filling up hydrogen is comparably non-existent.
(Hydrogen-powered Toyota Mirai being fueled up in Hamburg, Germany)
For what it’s worth, a lot of the investment potential in hydrogen fuel-cells relies on governments committing to the idea, and so far, promises from the Asian and European markets have seen fuel-cell stocks surge. Investors should look at producers like
FuelCell Energy Inc. (
NASDAQ:FCEL)
Plug Power Inc. (
NASDAQ:PLUG) and
Ballard Power Systems Inc. (
TSX:BLDP). Even diesel giant
Cummins Inc. (
NYSE:CMI) has bought out a fuel-cell company.
Further commitment, however, will require a significant increase in supply and true shift to the “blue gas” itself. Almost all of the fuel-cells on the market today use the market standard “grey” hydrogen, which is attractive on paper for having zero emissions, but still releases carbon into the atmosphere during production. Governments are
all for the idea of “blue” and “green” hydrogen which will help them meet emission reduction standards, but the industry needs to
ramp up supply and bring costs of production down.
And while some investors might be hearing about “blue gas” and hydrogen fuel-cells shaking up the market for the first time, others will recognize a story that made the rounds a few times in the past decade. The tech has evolved, yes, and the rollout of fuel-cell vehicles has begun, but the long-term fundamentals are the same. Until some big commitments and investments accelerate in the field and bring down costs as they have with electric vehicles, “blue gas” won’t rise to the top.
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