The whole market has been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 coronavrius, but travel stocks have had an
especially rough go.
It’s completely understandable why, of course. Many people don’t want to travel if it puts them at risk, whether from the transportation itself or because of the destination. This isn’t limited to global epidemics, as even small outbreaks are noted to deter travellers and cause cancellations.
To make matters worse, the ongoing epidemic has been publicly and directly linked to travel. Cruise ships have
made headlines after becoming hotbeds for COVID-19, and airline passengers have
unknowingly evaded health officials and spread the illness around the world.
Investors watching the whole market fall are, ideally,
entering a correction strategy and focusing on the long-term. That’s why the fall of travel stocks has turned heads, and has many looking back at historical epidemics to see what transpired before.
(20-year price chart for Royal Caribbean Cruises)
During the 2003 SARS outbreak, airline and cruise operators were hit hard and took many months to bottom out. Looking at the historical charts for companies like
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (
NYSE:RCL) and
Southwest Airlines Company (
NYSE:LUV), you can see the dip from November 2002 to March 2003, which seems miniscule now but was massive at the time. Once the situation was deemed under control, however, everyone started to recover, eventually and quickly growing past their former highs.
For investors currently thinking of investing in a travel stock bounceback, there are many operators to choose from. From airline companies like
Air Canada Inc. (
TSX:AC) and
United Airlines Holdings Inc. (
NASDAQ:UAL) to cruise operators like Royal Caribbean and
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (
NYSE:NCLH), it’s easy to see the massive devaluation of travel stocks on account of COVID-19.
(20-year price chart for Air Canada)
Picking the
right one is all about doing your due diligence, and settling down for a very long-term game. Companies devalued by external pressures are likely to recover, but if the company wasn’t doing well beforehand, recovery is a lot harder to achieve.
On top of everything, the impact and seriousness of COVID-19 is different than other historical outbreaks we’ve seen. A direct comparison can definitely be useful, but starts to become impossible when the scope and magnitude of the current outbreak is exponentially greater than what came before.
Investors expecting travel stocks to recover from outbreak should settle in for the long-haul. As recently as Monday, health officials were encouraging the public to
actively avoid cruise ships. The bottom for many of these companies has yet to be reached, and the recovery period will likely stretch out.
Again, heed the correction investment experts and focus on the long-term. You might not buy in at the absolute bottom, but investing in a severely devalued stock and waiting out the storm is a historicaly winning move for a reason.
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