D&B (NYSE: DNB), the world’s leading source of commercial information
and insight on businesses, today published its five-year forecast of the
global economy, predicting continued but sluggish growth against
challenging headwinds, differing from region to region.
D&B’s Global Economic Outlook to 2017, based on a
comprehensive study and analysis of its proprietary business data and
external data sources, provides insights on several contributing factors
to real GDP growth for more 132 countries, representing seven major
geographic areas. These assessments are based on D&B’s proprietary risk
ratings which evaluate a number of factors including short- and long-
term economic growth potential, global competitiveness and policy and
sovereign debt risk.
“The recovery from the 2008-2009 recession represents the slowest and
most problematic during the post-war era. We believe economic growth
will remain uneven across regions and time as structural and fiscal
imbalances, new political risks and other headwinds result in a global
economy predicted to achieve annual real-GDP growth of only 2.9 percent
by the end of 2017,” said Paul Ballew, Global Chief Data and Analytic
Officer, D&B. “On the flip side, these pressures are partly offset by
substantial improvement in corporate sector health.”
“The dramatic increase in public sector debt since 2008 has resulted in
an important inflection point for most developed economies,” said
Ballew. “As a result, fiscal austerity will have to increase through
spending restraint, and higher tax levels will occur over the next few
years as governments attempt to balance their books. That, in turn, will
limit growth in economies such as the United States, where private
sector restructuring has begun.”
Where We Are Today
U.S. economy continues to move slowly toward recovery.
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Concerns over a double-dip recession are unfounded despite the
fiscal policy challenges. The significant improvement in the health of
the corporate sector in combination with moderate consumer spending
growth are offsetting austerity that will be required at all levels of
government. Growth remains constrained but the recovery continues to
gradually gain momentum.
The outlook for European economies remains troubling.
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The immediate crisis in the Eurozone has subsided, but the
underlying challenges in the region remain substantial. While
attention remains focused on fiscal and monetary policy D&B remains
concerned about the competitiveness of European economies and the
ability of their business sector to offset fiscal restraint. The
outlook for the region remains unsettled with substantial downside
risk given policy uncertainty.
In 2012, three years into the recovery, D&B downgraded 32 countries in
its country risk analysis—the third highest number of downgrades in one
calendar year—while only upgrading seven.
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Risk ratings for 56 of the 132 countries are worse than in October
2009 when the recovery started, while only 23 are better.
Where We Are Going: 2013 to 2017
“After the 2012 slowdown, global economic growth is expected to pick up
gradually through 2017, but below trend until the middle to latter
stages of the decade,” said Ballew. “Nevertheless, we expect it to be
lower than in the five years prior to 2008 as several concerns still
weigh heavily on these forecasts.”
Despite cautious optimism, a number of risks remain, namely:
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High levels of debt, particularly in the public sector;
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Unintended consequences of unprecedented monetary easing policies;
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Political risks associated with the transformation of countries to new
governmental systems (e.g., Arab Spring).
For a copy of D&B’s Global Economic Outlook to 2017, please http://www.dnb.com/lc/credit-education/global-outlook-to-2017.html#.UVRiy1f4J8E.
For more information on D&B’s Country Risk Services Team and their
research, please contact countryrisk@dnb.com.
About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B)
Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world's leading source of commercial
information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with
Confidence® for 171 years. D&B's global commercial database contains
more than 220 million business records. The database is enhanced by
D&B's proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our
customers with quality business information. This quality information is
the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make
critical business decisions.
D&B provides two solution sets that meet a diverse set of customer needs
globally. Customers use D&B Risk Management Solutions™ to mitigate
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For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.
