(TSX: AAV, NYSE: AAV)
CALGARY, Sept. 30, 2013 /CNW/ - The Alberta Securities Commission has
requested that Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. ("Advantage" or the "Company")
present its reserves and resource estimates contained in the press
releases dated May 21, 2013 and July 15, 2013 (the "Press Releases")
without providing a summation of the individual estimates of reserves,
contingent resources and prospective resources. The individual
estimates of volumes of reserves and resources effective as of March
31, 2013 as presented in the previous Press Releases are unchanged.
The evaluation of Advantage's Glacier Montney resources was prepared by
Sproule Associates Ltd. ("Sproule"), an independent qualified reserve
evaluator, with an effective date of March 31, 2013 in accordance with
National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGE Handbook").
The following three tables summarize the results of Sproule's resource
assessment of Advantage's Glacier Montney resources as at March 31,
2013:
|
Resource Categories (AAV Working Interest, Best Estimate, Raw) (1)
|
Tcf
|
|
Total Petroleum Initially In Place (TPIIP)
|
16.03
|
|
Discovered Petroleum Initially in Place (DPIIP) (2)
|
13.98
|
|
Undiscovered Petroleum Initially in Place (UPIIP) (3)
|
2.05
|
|
DPIIP (AAV Working Interest, Sales) (2)
|
Low
Estimate
|
Best
Estimate
|
High
Estimate
|
|
Natural Gas
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative Production (Tcf) (4) |
0.100
|
0.100
|
0.100
|
|
Reserves (Tcf) (5) |
0.927
|
1.526
|
1.770
|
|
Contingent Resources (Tcf)
|
2.316
|
3.540
|
4.898
|
|
Unrecoverable DPIIP (Tcf)
|
9.574
|
7.751
|
6.149
|
|
Natural Gas Liquids
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative Production (mbbls) (4) |
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Reserves (mbbls) (5) |
5,949
|
11,071
|
12,732
|
|
Contingent Resources (mbbls) |
72,472
|
110,274
|
152,013
|
|
Unrecoverable DPIIP (mbbls)
|
225,654
|
182,730
|
139,330
|
|
UPIIP (AAV Working Interest, Sales) (3)
|
Low
Estimate
|
Best
Estimate
|
High
Estimate
|
|
Natural Gas
|
|
|
|
|
Prospective Resources (Tcf)
|
0.342
|
0.556
|
0.776
|
|
Unrecoverable UPIIP (Tcf)
|
1.561
|
1.347
|
1.127
|
|
Natural Gas Liquids
|
|
|
|
|
Prospective Resources (mbbls)
|
7,381
|
11,691
|
16,274
|
|
Unrecoverable UPIIP (mbbls)
|
25,558
|
21,248
|
16,665
|
|
Notes to above tables:
|
|
(1)
|
See Appendix A for the definitions from the COGE Handbook of the various
resource categories used herein.
|
|
(2)
|
There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any
portion of the DPIIP.
|
|
(3)
|
There is no certainty that any portion of the UPIIP will be discovered.
If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially
viable to produce any portion of the UPIIP.
|
|
(4)
|
The cumulative production represents the actual total historic
production from Advantage's Glacier Montney resources and as such is
not a Low, Best or High Estimate.
|
|
(5)
|
For reserves, the Low Estimate is proved reserves, the Best Estimate is
proved plus probable reserves and the High Estimate is proved plus
probable plus possible reserves. Possible reserves are those additional
reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves.
There is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will
equal or exceed the sum of proved plus probable plus possible reserves.
|
In the July 15, 2013 press release, Advantage announced the results of
an addendum to the evaluation prepared by Sproule, in which Sproule
estimated the future net revenue associated with Advantage's Glacier
Best Estimate contingent resources. As a result of Sproule's estimate
of the future net revenue, all of Advantage's petroleum and natural gas
Montney Best Estimate contingent resources at Glacier were considered
economic based on forecast commodity prices, capital costs and
operating costs as at March 31, 2013. Sproule estimated that the before
tax net present value of future net revenue of Advantage's petroleum
and natural gas Montney Best Estimate contingent resources was $3,215
million discounted at 10% and $1,642 million discounted at 15%.
Sproule evaluated the economics of Advantage's Best Estimate contingent
resources based on a development scenario that was provided by
Advantage. The development plan included the drilling of 1,120 future
contingent locations with a total undiscounted capital expenditure of
$8.3 billion which includes the necessary facilities and infrastructure
costs. For the evaluation of proved plus probable reserves, the
development plan assumed a maximum production rate of 200 mmcf/d is
reached in 2015 and maintained until 2026. The proved plus probable
reserves evaluation included the drilling of 313 future undeveloped
locations with a total undiscounted capital expenditure of $1.9
billion. In estimating the Glacier contingent resources, Sproule
assumed based on Advantage's development plan that gas plant capacity
would increase over and above the proved plus probable reserves
forecast by 100 mmcf/d per year of raw gas starting in 2015 to a total
throughput of 600 mmcf/d raw gas by 2018. The 600 mmcf/d raw facility
throughput capacity was then maintained to the year 2032 by drilling
wells as required.
The crude oil and natural gas pricing assumptions used for the estimate
were prepared by Sproule effective March 31, 2013. These forecasts were
adjusted for reserve quality, transportation charges and the provision
of any applicable sales contracts. Sproule's price assumptions as at
March 31, 2013 used over the next seven years are summarized in the
table below:
Year
|
|
|
|
|
WTI
Crude Oil
($US/bbl)
|
Edmonton Light
Crude Oil
($Cdn/bbl)
|
Alberta AECO-C
Natural Gas
($Cdn/mmbtu)
|
Henry Hub
Natural Gas
($US/mmbtu)
|
Exchange
Rate
($US/$Cdn)
|
|
2013
|
|
|
|
|
92.85
|
87.92
|
3.52
|
3.87
|
0.999
|
|
2014
|
|
|
|
|
90.51
|
85.58
|
3.80
|
4.14
|
0.999
|
|
2015
|
|
|
|
|
87.69
|
87.75
|
3.95
|
4.30
|
0.999
|
|
2016
|
|
|
|
|
93.22
|
93.30
|
4.66
|
5.00
|
0.999
|
|
2017
|
|
|
|
|
96.96
|
97.03
|
5.32
|
5.66
|
0.999
|
|
2018
|
|
|
|
|
98.41
|
98.49
|
5.40
|
5.74
|
0.999
|
|
2019
|
|
|
|
|
99.89
|
99.96
|
5.49
|
5.83
|
0.999
|
For information relating to the contingencies that prevent the
classification of the contingent resources as reserves and significant
positive and negative factors relevant to the estimates please see the
prior Press Releases, which are available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and Advantage's website at www.advantageog.com.
Appendix A — Reserve and Resource Definitions
Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related
substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as
of a given date, based on the analysis of drilling, geological,
geophysical and engineering data; the use of established technology;
and specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as
being reasonable. Reserves are classified according to the degree of
certainty associated with the estimates as follows:
|
|
|
Proved Reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty
to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities
recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probable Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than
proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the
estimated proved plus probable reserves.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Possible Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than
probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities
recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable
plus possible reserves.
|
Resources encompasses all petroleum quantities that originally existed on or
within the earth's crust in naturally occurring accumulations,
including Discovered and Undiscovered (recoverable and unrecoverable)
plus quantities already produced. "Total resources" is equivalent to
"Total Petroleum Initially-In-Place". Resources are classified in the
following categories:
|
|
|
Total Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("TPIIP") is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist originally in
naturally occurring accumulations. It includes that quantity of
petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in
known accumulations, prior to production, plus those estimated
quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("DPIIP") is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to
be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The
recoverable portion of discovered petroleum initially in place includes
production, reserves, and Contingent Resources; the remainder is
unrecoverable.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established
technology or technology under development but which are not currently
considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more
contingencies.
|
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|
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|
|
Economic Contingent Resources are those contingent resources that are currently economically
recoverable.
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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Undiscovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("UPIIP") is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, on a given date, to be
contained in accumulations yet to be discovered. The recoverable
portion of undiscovered petroleum initially in place is referred to as
"prospective resources" and the remainder as "unrecoverable."
|
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Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application
of future development projects.
|
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|
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Unrecoverable is that portion of DPIIP and UPIIP quantities which is estimated, as of
a given date, not to be recoverable by future development projects. A
portion of these quantities may become recoverable in the future as
commercial circumstances change or technological developments occur;
the remaining portion may never be recovered due to the
physical/chemical constraints represented by subsurface interaction of
fluids and reservoir rocks.
|
Uncertainty Ranges are described by the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as low,
best, and high estimates for reserves and resources as follows:
|
|
|
Low Estimate: This is considered to be a conservative estimate of the quantity that
will actually be recovered. It is likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will exceed the low estimate. If probabilistic
methods are used, there should be at least a 90 percent probability
(P90) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the
low estimate.
|
|
|
|
|
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Best Estimate: This is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will
actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If
probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50 percent
probability (P50) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or
exceed the best estimate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
High Estimate: This is considered to be an optimistic estimate of the quantity that
will actually be recovered. It is unlikely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will exceed the high estimate. If probabilistic
methods are used, there should be at least a 10 percent probability
(P10) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the
high estimate.
|
Advisory
The information in this press release contains certain forward-looking
statements, including within the meaning of the United States Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to
future events or our future intentions or performance. All statements
other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always,
identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan",
"continue", "estimate", "demonstrate", "expect", "may", "will",
"project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could",
"might", "should", "believe", "would" and similar expressions and
include statements relating to, but not llimited to, details of the
development plan to recover the resources, capital costs associated
with the recovery of the resources, forecast commodity prices,
estimated reserves and resources. These statements involve substantial
known and unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond
Advantage's control, including: the impact of general economic
conditions; industry conditions; changes in laws and regulations
including the adoption of new environmental laws and regulations and
changes in how they are interpreted and enforced; fluctuations in
commodity prices and foreign exchange and interest rates; stock market
volatility and market valuations; volatility in market prices for oil
and natural gas; liabilities inherent in oil and natural gas
operations; uncertainties associated with estimating oil and natural
gas reserves; competition for, among other things, capital,
acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel;
incorrect assessments of the value of acquisitions; changes in income
tax laws or changes in tax laws and incentive programs relating to the
oil and gas industry and income trusts; geological, technical, drilling
and processing problems and other difficulties in producing petroleum
reserves; and obtaining required approvals of regulatory authorities.
Advantage's actual decisions, activities, results, performance or
achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied
by, such forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurances can
be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking
statements will transpire or occur or, if any of them do, what benefits
that Advantage will derive from them. Except as required by law,
Advantage undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any
forward-looking statements. For additional risk factors in respect of
Advantage and its business, please refer to its Annual Information Form
which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and www.advantageog.com.
Throughout this press release the term Tcfe (trillion of cubic feet of
gas equivalent) is used. Such term may be misleading, particularly if
used in isolation. The conversion ratio used herein of 1 barrel per six
thousand cubic feet (1 bbl: 6 mcf) of barrels of oil to natural gas
equivalent is based on an energy equivalency conversion method
primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value
equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the
current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly
different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on
a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. In this press
release, the abbreviations mbbls means thousands of barrels,mmcf/d
means millions cubic feet of gas per day and tcf means trillion of
cubic feet.
Where any disclosure of reserves data and resources is made in this
press release that does not reflect all reserves of Advantage, the
reader should note that the estimates of reserves, future net revenue
and resources for individual properties or groups of properties may not
reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future
net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation.
SOURCE Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
