Major residential real estate markets poised for further growth in 2014
LAVAL, QC, Dec. 11, 2013 /CNW Telbec/ - Canadian consumers remained
remarkably steadfast in their determination to achieve homeownership in
2013, fuelling residential real estate sales and average price
nationally to a five-year high, despite a spotty regional performance.
Improved economic performance on both a national and global stage,
combined with historically low interest rates and rising consumer
confidence, should spark greater strength in 2014, with housing sales
and values expected to further appreciate, according to a report
released today by RE/MAX.
The RE/MAX Canadian Housing Market Outlook 2014 examined trends and developments in 25 major markets across the
country. The report found that the number of homes sold is expected to
match or exceed 2012 levels in almost two-thirds of markets (15/25) in
2013, led by strong activity in British Columbia, including Vancouver
(up 10 per cent) and Kelowna (10 per cent). Quebec markets are expected
to soften somewhat from year-ago levels, with Greater Montreal and
Quebec City poised to record a nine percent and 12 per cent decline in
sales respectively. The province experienced greater impact from
stricter lending regulations and saw confidence hampered by labour
challenges and weaker economic growth in 2013. Ninety-two per cent
(23/25) of markets are set to experience average price increases by
year-end 2013, with Hamilton-Burlington the country's frontrunner at
7.5 per cent, followed by Barrie and District at seven per cent,
Calgary and St. John's at six per cent, and Greater Vancouver, Winnipeg
and the Greater Toronto Area at five per cent. Montreal and Quebec
City are anticipated to post modest average price gains of two and four
per cent respectively.
The forecast for 2014 shows the upward trend gaining momentum, with
values expected to climb yet again in 92 per cent (23/25) of centres,
led by Greater Toronto at six per cent. Montreal should see average
price plateau, while Quebec City is expected to mark a slight one per
cent contraction. Strength and stability are forecast to characterize
Canadian real estate in 2014, with sales estimates on par or above
year-ago levels in all markets examined, led by Kelowna (10 per cent)
and Calgary (nine per cent). The Quebec markets are expected to resume
a growth trajectory in unit sales in 2014, both at two per cent.
Nationally, an estimated 466,000 homes will change hands in 2013, an
increase of three per cent over the 453,372 sales recorded in 2012.
Canadian home sales are expected to climb two per cent to 475,000 units
by year-end 2014. The average price of a Canadian home is forecast to
appreciate four per cent to $380,000 in 2013, up from $363,740 in
2012. Values are expected to continue to escalate in 2014, rising
three per cent to $390,000 by year end.
"Housing markets proved incredibly resilient in 2013, particularly in
light of the greater disparity in year-over-year performance that
existed earlier in the year," says Sylvain Dansereau, Executive Vice
President, RE/MAX Quebec. "While activity proved weaker overall in
Quebec, a more positive picture should emerge next year. Quebecers and
Canadians overall have demonstrated a long-term mindset that bodes well
for stability. Yet, they also value progress, and we expect that to
translate again in 2014. Equity gains should continue to result in
tangible leaps to larger homes or better neighbourhoods, as well as a
growing wave of renovation and revitalization. Gains in equity markets
may also serve to bolster activity, as paper wealth is converted to
material wealth. We anticipate improved momentum going forward."
Regional disparities surfaced early in 2013, according to the RE/MAX
Report, and were evident throughout the year. Alberta started the year
with a bang, with both major markets bucking the national downward
trending in sales. Homebuying activity in British Columbia,
Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario kicked into high gear in July, with
most centres expected to move ahead of 2012 levels by year end, led by
Greater Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria (six per cent), Windsor-Essex (six
per cent), Edmonton (five per cent) and Hamilton-Burlington (five per
cent). Yet, performance in Quebec and Atlantic Canada is forecast to
fall short of 2012 levels. More consistent performance is expected in
2014, especially given economic projections for the East Coast and
Quebec. Both regions should rebound in the new year, led by
Halifax-Dartmouth (five per cent), Moncton (three per cent), Greater
Montreal (two per cent) and Quebec City (two per cent).
"Inventory played a key role in keeping housing markets at an
equilibrium in 2013—with supply largely meeting demand throughout the
year," says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of
Western Canada. "The anticipated run-up in inventory failed to
materialize in most major centres. Prices remained healthy as a
result, with steady upward momentum noted, particularly in the latter
half of the year. The trend is forecast to continue, with average
price appreciation expected to break existing records in 2014."
Although there are several factors that are expected to contribute to
rising housing values on a national basis, one of the most pressing is
build out. Nowhere is that more obvious than in Vancouver, where the
mountains and the ocean have prevented further growth, and the Greater
Toronto Area, where the greenbelt has stymied future development. As
such, the availability of low-rise homes relative to the population is
expected to contract, placing further pressure on prices. Vertical
growth and its affordable price point is representative of the future.
"We are seeing an increasing focus on higher density developments across
the country," says Dansereau. "While the trend is expected to gain
traction in most major centres, we anticipate a softening in Quebec's
condominium segment, until the current oversupply is absorbed."
On the whole, solid underpinnings continue to support healthy levels of
real estate activity from coast to coast. Buyers appear to be
realistic in their pursuits, and after several rounds of mortgage
tightening, many are coming to the table better qualified, with larger
downpayments and readjusted expectations. Imposed restrictions have had
the desired effect. A sound framework is now in place to support
steady and sustainable growth over the next several years. Existing
inventory levels remain crucial to Canadian housing markets moving
forward. The tightening currently demonstrated at entry-level price
points—as more first-time buyers make their way back into the
market—could translate into further price hikes down the road.
"The housing outlook remains healthy and positive," says Gurinder
Sandhu, Executive Vice President, Regional Director, RE/MAX
Ontario-Atlantic Canada. "Continued growth and expansion should
characterize most residential markets in the year ahead. The appeal of
residential real estate continues to resonate with Canadians, as a
relatively low-risk, tangible asset that serves multiple
purposes—shelter, investment, and retirement fund rolled into one."
About the RE/MAX Network
RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative,
entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the
flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. Over
90,000 agents provide RE/MAX a global reach of more than 90 countries.
RE/MAX is Canada's leading real estate organization with approximately
19,000 sales associates and 750 independently-owned and operated
offices nationwide.
RE/MAX, LLC, one of the world's leading franchisors of real estate
brokerage services, is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings, Inc.
(NYSE:RMAX).
For more information about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an
agent in your community, please visit www.remax.ca.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release includes "forward looking statements" within the
meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the United States Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements
may be identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "believe",
"intend", "expect", "estimate", "plan", "outlook", "poised," "should"
and "project" and other similar words and expressions that predict or
indicate future events or trends or that are not statements of
historical matters. Forward looking statements should not be read as a
guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be
accurate indications of the times at, or by, which such performance or
results will be achieved. Forward looking statements are based on
information available at the time those statements are made and/or
management's good faith belief as of that time with respect to future
events, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause
actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed
in or suggested by the forward looking statements. Such risks include,
without limitation, those described in the sections "Risk Factors" and
"Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and
Results of Operation in RE/MAX Holdings Inc.'s registration statement
on Form S-1 filed with the United States Securities and Exchange
Commission ("SEC") and (1) changes in business and economic activity in
general, (2) changes in the real estate market, including changes due
to interest rates and availability of financing, and (3) changes in
laws and regulations that may affect our business or the real estate
market. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on
forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which
they are made. Except as required by law, RE/MAX Holdings Inc. does not
intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to reflect
future events or circumstances. Investors are referred to in RE/MAX
Holding Inc.'s registration statement on Form S-1 and subsequent
reports filed with the SEC.
Data Source: Historical data is sourced from CREA or Local Real Estate Boards.
Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX
broker/owners and affiliates.
RESIDENTIAL AVERAGE PRICE BY MARKET
2008 - 2014
|
Market
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013E*
|
% +/-
|
2014F**
|
% +/-
|
BRITISH COLUMBIA
|
Greater Vancouver
|
$593,767
|
$592,441
|
$675,853
|
$779,730
|
$730,063
|
$765,000
|
5
|
$800,000
|
5
|
Victoria
|
$484,898
|
$476,137
|
$504,561
|
$498,300
|
$484,164
|
$484,000
|
PAR
|
$490,000
|
1
|
Kelowna
|
$430,755
|
$400,450
|
$419,884
|
$404,756
|
$404,712
|
$397,000
|
-1
|
$405,000
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ALBERTA
|
Edmonton
|
$332,852
|
$320,378
|
$328,803
|
$325,395
|
$334,318
|
$345,000
|
3
|
$358,800
|
4
|
Calgary
|
$407,149
|
$387,413
|
$398,764
|
$402,851
|
$412,315
|
$437,000
|
6
|
$448,000
|
2.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SASKATCHEWAN
|
Regina
|
$229,716
|
$244,088
|
$258,023
|
$276,469
|
$301,332
|
$312,000
|
3.5
|
$320,000
|
3
|
Saskatoon
|
$287,777
|
$279,779
|
$296,378
|
$309,823
|
$331,867
|
$345,500
|
4
|
$356,000
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MANITOBA
|
Winnipeg
|
$196,940
|
$207,342
|
$228,706
|
$241,409
|
$255,058
|
$267,000
|
5
|
$275,000
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ONTARIO
|
Hamilton-Burlington
|
$280,790
|
$290,946
|
$311,683
|
$333,498
|
$360,059
|
$387,000
|
7.5
|
$402,500
|
4
|
Kitchener-Waterloo
|
$267,255
|
$266,385
|
$289,294
|
$301,010
|
$311,006
|
$320,000
|
3
|
$330,000
|
3
|
London-St. Thomas
|
$210,888
|
$213,127
|
$228,114
|
$232,387
|
$238,822
|
$247,000
|
3
|
$250,000
|
1
|
Ottawa
|
$290,483
|
$304,801
|
$328,439
|
$344,791
|
$352,610
|
$360,000
|
2
|
$367,000
|
2
|
Greater Sudbury
|
$216,769
|
$203,941
|
$225,023
|
$234,544
|
$247,462
|
$254,000
|
2
|
$259,000
|
2
|
Greater Toronto
|
$379,943
|
$395,460
|
$431,463
|
$465,412
|
$497,150
|
$520,000
|
5
|
$550,000
|
6
|
Barrie and District
|
$264,034
|
$263,959
|
$281,961
|
$287,588
|
$299,685
|
$320,000
|
7
|
$330,000
|
3
|
St. Catharines
|
$222,104
|
$225,421
|
$237,376
|
$244,630
|
$253,469
|
$258,000
|
2
|
$265,500
|
3
|
Kingston and Area
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
$280,095
|
$286,000
|
2
|
$297,000
|
4
|
Windsor-Essex
|
$162,599
|
$156,615
|
$163,054
|
$170,034
|
$175,581
|
$183,000
|
4
|
$190,000
|
4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUEBEC
|
Greater Montreal
|
$262,611
|
$274,787
|
$297,588
|
$313,997
|
$319,026
|
$324,000
|
2
|
$324,000
|
0
|
Quebec City
|
$197,450
|
$212,203
|
$237,309
|
$247,088
|
$257,713
|
$267,000
|
4
|
$264,500
|
-1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEW BRUNSWICK
|
Saint John
|
$168,965
|
$179,762
|
$178,867
|
$177,328
|
$174,026
|
$181,000
|
4
|
$184,000
|
2
|
Moncton
|
$143,173
|
$150,135
|
$152,257
|
$158,361
|
$158,107
|
$160,000
|
1
|
$165,000
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NOVA SCOTIA
|
Halifax-Dartmouth
|
$232,106
|
$239,158
|
$253,610
|
$260,950
|
$270,742
|
$276,000
|
2
|
$278,000
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
|
|
$139,944
|
$146,044
|
$147,196
|
$149,617
|
$152,250
|
$157,000
|
3
|
$161,700
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
|
St. John's
|
$187,571
|
$218,862
|
$251,191
|
$268,608
|
$285,529
|
$302,500
|
6
|
$317,600
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CANADA
|
$303,594
|
$320,367
|
$339,049
|
$363,346
|
$363,740
|
$380,000
|
4
|
$390,000
|
3
|
* Estimate **Forecast
Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Real Estate
Boards. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinions of
independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates.
|
RESIDENTIAL UNIT SALES BY MARKET
2008 - 2014
|
Market
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013E*
|
% +/-
|
2014F**
|
% +/-
|
|
BRITISH COLUMBIA
|
Greater Vancouver
|
25,149
|
36,257
|
31,144
|
32,936
|
25,445
|
28,000
|
10
|
29,000
|
2
|
Victoria
|
6,171
|
7,660
|
6,169
|
5,773
|
5,460
|
5,800
|
6
|
6,000
|
4
|
Kelowna
|
3,773
|
3,924
|
3,289
|
3,330
|
3,902
|
4,300
|
10
|
4,730
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ALBERTA
|
Edmonton
|
17,369
|
19,139
|
16,403
|
16,963
|
17,641
|
18,500
|
5
|
19,400
|
5
|
Calgary
|
22,931
|
24,711
|
20,801
|
22,466
|
26,634
|
27,500
|
3
|
30,000
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SASKATCHEWAN
|
Regina
|
3,338
|
3,704
|
3,581
|
3,909
|
3,922
|
3,700
|
-5
|
3,775
|
2
|
Saskatoon
|
3,522
|
3,822
|
3,558
|
4,027
|
4,171
|
4,200
|
1
|
4,200
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MANITOBA
|
Winnipeg
|
11,854
|
11,509
|
11,572
|
12,297
|
12,094
|
12,300
|
2
|
12,300
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ONTARIO
|
Hamilton-Burlington
|
12,110
|
12,680
|
12,934
|
13,932
|
13,035
|
13,700
|
5
|
14,300
|
4.5
|
Kitchener-Waterloo
|
6,047
|
6,347
|
6,389
|
6,252
|
6,212
|
6,300
|
1
|
6,300
|
0
|
London-St. Thomas
|
8,395
|
8,113
|
8,128
|
8,048
|
8,020
|
8,075
|
1
|
8,150
|
1
|
Ottawa
|
13,908
|
14,923
|
14,586
|
14,551
|
14,497
|
13,800
|
-5
|
13,900
|
1
|
Greater Sudbury
|
2,913
|
2,371
|
2,669
|
2,829
|
2,764
|
2,800
|
1
|
2,800
|
0
|
Greater Toronto
|
74,552
|
87,308
|
85,545
|
89,099
|
85,498
|
87,500
|
2
|
89,000
|
2
|
Barrie and District
|
4,058
|
4,326
|
4,105
|
4,228
|
4,576
|
4,650
|
2
|
4,850
|
4
|
St. Catharines
|
2,894
|
2,808
|
2,940
|
2,836
|
2,621
|
2,700
|
3
|
2,780
|
3
|
Kingston and Area
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
3,791
|
3,750
|
-1
|
3,900
|
4
|
Windsor-Essex
|
4,376
|
4,586
|
4,791
|
4,773
|
4,907
|
5,200
|
6
|
5,400
|
4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUEBEC
|
Greater Montreal
|
40,440
|
41,753
|
42,299
|
40,357
|
40,089
|
36,500
|
-9
|
37,200
|
2
|
Quebec City
|
7,838
|
7,962
|
7,073
|
7,200
|
7,219
|
6,300
|
-12
|
6,425
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEW BRUNSWICK
|
Saint John
|
2,559
|
2,283
|
2,017
|
1,835
|
1,886
|
1,850
|
-2
|
1,870
|
1
|
Moncton
|
2,663
|
2,386
|
2,402
|
2,467
|
2,259
|
2,200
|
-3
|
2,275
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NOVA SCOTIA
|
Halifax-Dartmouth
|
6,472
|
6,062
|
5,944
|
6,119
|
6,239
|
5,700
|
-9
|
6,000
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
|
|
1,413
|
1,404
|
1,487
|
1,521
|
1,614
|
1,600
|
-1
|
1,600
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
|
St. John's
|
3,835
|
3,642
|
3,470
|
3,647
|
3,871
|
3,650
|
-6
|
3,650
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CANADA
|
434,477
|
465,068
|
446,913
|
456,749
|
453,372
|
466,000
|
3
|
475,000
|
2
|
|
*Estimate **Forecast
Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Real Estate
Boards. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinions of
independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates.
|
SOURCE RE/MAX Quebec
PDF available at: http://stream1.newswire.ca/media/2013/12/11/20131211_C9560_DOC_EN_34827.pdf