CALGARY, Feb. 5, 2014 /CNW/ - (ARX - TSX) ARC Resources Ltd. ("ARC") released today its 2013 year-end
reserves and resources information.
"I am really pleased with our team's performance again this year. We
added significant reserves at a low finding cost through the drill bit
and continued to convert our large reserve and resource base into
production and cash flow," stated Myron Stadnyk, President and CEO.
HIGHLIGHTS
-
Replaced approximately 200 per cent of 2013 total production, adding
68.4 mmboe of proved plus probable ("2P") reserves.
-
2P reserves increased four per cent to 634 mmboe, comprised of 2.6 Tcf
of natural gas and 194 mmbbls of crude oil and natural gas liquids
("NGL's") at year-end 2013.
-
Replaced 180 per cent of 2013 crude oil and NGL's production, adding 25
mmbbls of 2P crude oil and NGL's reserves. ARC's crude oil and liquids
development resulted in a four per cent increase in 2P crude oil and
NGL's reserves from 186 mmbbls to 194 mmbbls.
-
Finding and Development costs ("F&D") of $12.79 per boe for 2P reserves
and $17.45 per boe for proved reserves excluding changes in Future
Development Capital ("FDC"). ARC's three year average F&D costs for 2P
reserves were $8.24 per boe, excluding changes in FDC. ARC's 2013
capital development program focused significantly on oil and liquids
development which typically carries higher finding and development
costs, while yielding higher returns given the current commodity price
environment.
-
ARC's 2P RLI has decreased to 15.5 years from 17.5 years and the Future
Development Cost to develop our reserves has declined to $3.3 billion
from $3.4 billion at year-end 2012. Both are the result of significant
capital being spent in 2013, which is expected to increase production
to a range of approximately 110,000 to 114,000 boe per day in 2014. The
reduction in FDC is also partially attributable to capital efficiencies
recognized through pad drilling and longer horizontal wells.
-
Including changes in FDC, ARC's 2P F&D was $11.47 for 2013 and $12.01
for the trailing three year average. Proved F&D including changes in
FDC, was $18.11 for 2013 and averaged $17.42 for the three year
average.
-
Recycle ratio of 2.2 times and 3.3 times for the current year and three
year average, respectively, for 2P reserves based on current and three
year average F&D costs, before changes in FDC, and based on 2013 and
three year average netbacks of $28.57 per boe and $27.24 per boe,
respectively.
-
ARC updated an Independent Resources Evaluation ("Resources Evaluation"
or "Independent Resources Evaluation") for its Montney lands in the
northeast British Columbia ("NE B.C.") Montney region. The updated
evaluation reaffirmed the significant resource base on ARC's NE B.C.
Montney lands of 55.1 Tcf of natural gas resource (10 per cent increase
relative to 50.1 Tcf in 2012) and 2.2 billion barrels of oil resource
(50 per cent increase relative to the 1.5 billion barrels in 2012).
2013 INDEPENDENT RESERVES EVALUATION
GLJ conducted an independent reserves evaluation effective December 31,
2013 and prepared in accordance with definitions, standards and
procedures contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook
("COGE Handbook") and NI 51-101. The reserves evaluation was based on
GLJ forecast pricing and foreign exchange rates at January 1, 2014 as
outlined in Table 1 below.
Reserves included herein are stated on a company gross basis (working
interest before deduction of royalties without including any royalty
interests) unless noted otherwise. All reserves information has been
prepared in accordance with National Instrument ("NI") 51-101. This
news release contains several cautionary statements that are
specifically required by NI 51-101 under the heading "Information Regarding Disclosure on Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources and
Operational Information". In addition to the detailed information disclosed in this news release
more detailed information will be included in ARC's Annual Information
Form ("AIF").
Based on this independent reserves evaluation, ARC's reserve profile as
at December 31, 2013 is summarized below:
-
ARC's year-end 2013 2P reserves increased four per cent to 634 mmboe
compared to 607 mmboe of 2P reserves recorded at year-end 2012
-
2P reserve additions from exploration and development activities
(including revisions) were 68.4 mmboe while 6.7 mmboe was divested (net
of minor acquisitions), bringing the total additions to 61.7 mmboe
before 2013 production of 34.8 mmboe
-
The 68.4 mmboe 2P reserves additions from development activities
represents approximately 200 per cent of the 34.8 mmboe produced during
2013
-
Proved developed producing reserves represent 56 per cent of total
proved reserves and 33 per cent of 2P reserves
-
Total proved reserves account for 59 per cent of 2P reserves
-
Crude oil and NGL's comprise 31 per cent of 2P reserves and natural gas
comprises 69 per cent of 2P reserves on a 6:1 boe conversion basis
-
Positive technical revisions of 21 mmboe mainly from the Sunrise,
Dawson, Pembina, and Redwater fields illustrate the strength of ARC's
asset base
Table 1
|
|
|
|
|
GLJ January 1, 2014
Price Forecast
|
West Texas
Intermediate
Crude Oil
($US/bbl)
|
Edmonton
Light
Crude Oil
($Cdn/bbl)
|
Natural Gas
at AECO
($Cdn/mmbtu)
|
Foreign Exchange
($US/$Cdn)
|
2014
|
97.50
|
92.76
|
4.03
|
0.95
|
2015
|
97.50
|
97.37
|
4.26
|
0.95
|
2016
|
97.50
|
100.00
|
4.50
|
0.95
|
2017
|
97.50
|
100.00
|
4.74
|
0.95
|
2018
|
97.50
|
100.00
|
4.97
|
0.95
|
2019
|
97.50
|
100.00
|
5.21
|
0.95
|
2020
|
98.54
|
100.77
|
5.33
|
0.95
|
2021
|
100.51
|
102.78
|
5.44
|
0.95
|
2022
|
102.52
|
104.83
|
5.55
|
0.95
|
2023
|
104.57
|
106.93
|
5.66
|
0.95
|
Escalate thereafter at
|
+2.0%/yr
|
+2.0%/yr
|
+2.0%/yr
|
0.95
|
Table 2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RESERVES SUMMARY
|
Light and
Medium
Crude Oil
(mbbl)
|
Heavy
Crude Oil
(mbbl)
|
Total
Crude Oil
(mbbl)
|
NGLs
(mbbl)
|
Natural
Gas (Bcf)
|
Oil
Equivalent
2013
(mboe)
|
Oil
Equivalent
2012
(mboe)
|
Company Gross
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proved Producing
|
88,620
|
1,503
|
90,123
|
11,074
|
644
|
208,454
|
201,019
|
Proved Developed Non-producing
|
2,584
|
78
|
2,662
|
847
|
23
|
7,383
|
12,044
|
Proved Undeveloped
|
17,690
|
105
|
17,795
|
9,462
|
785
|
158,139
|
150,841
|
Total Proved
|
108,894
|
1,686
|
110,580
|
21,383
|
1,452
|
373,976
|
363,904
|
Proved plus Probable
|
153,028
|
2,154
|
155,182
|
38,882
|
2,639
|
633,864
|
606,982
|
Table 3
|
RESERVES RECONCILIATION COMPANY GROSS
|
|
|
Light and
Medium Crude
Oil (mbbl)
|
|
Heavy Crude
Oil (mbbl)
|
|
Total Crude
Oil (mbbl)
|
|
NGLs
(mbbl)
|
|
Natural Gas
(mmcf)
|
|
Oil
Equivalent
(mboe)
|
PROVED PRODUCING
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Opening Balance
|
88,539
|
|
1,739
|
|
90,278
|
|
9,578
|
|
606,975
|
|
201,019
|
|
Exploration Discoveries
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
1
|
|
30
|
|
6
|
|
Extensions and Improved Recovery(1)
|
10,510
|
|
94
|
|
10,604
|
|
2,714
|
|
122,657
|
|
33,761
|
|
Technical Revisions
|
2,462
|
|
-88
|
|
2,374
|
|
1,353
|
|
60,204
|
|
13,761
|
|
Acquisitions
|
58
|
|
0
|
|
58
|
|
4
|
|
77
|
|
75
|
|
Dispositions
|
-1,381
|
|
-11
|
|
-1,392
|
|
-744
|
|
-19,045
|
|
-5,310
|
|
Economic Factors
|
-6
|
|
-11
|
|
-17
|
|
7
|
|
-564
|
|
-104
|
|
Production
|
-11,562
|
|
-220
|
|
-11,782
|
|
-1,839
|
|
-126,795
|
|
-34,754
|
Closing Balance
|
88,620
|
|
1,503
|
|
90,123
|
|
11,074
|
|
643,539
|
|
208,453
|
TOTAL PROVED
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Opening Balance
|
105,255
|
|
1,739
|
|
106,994
|
|
20,214
|
|
1,420,174
|
|
363,904
|
|
Exploration Discoveries
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Extensions and Improved Recovery (1)
|
14,009
|
|
277
|
|
14,286
|
|
2,678
|
|
88,094
|
|
31,646
|
|
Technical Revisions
|
2,421
|
|
-88
|
|
2,333
|
|
1,084
|
|
94,552
|
|
19,176
|
|
Acquisitions
|
58
|
|
0
|
|
58
|
|
4
|
|
77
|
|
75
|
|
Dispositions
|
-1,409
|
|
-11
|
|
-1,420
|
|
-752
|
|
-19,101
|
|
-5,356
|
|
Economic Factors
|
122
|
|
-11
|
|
111
|
|
-6
|
|
-4,921
|
|
-715
|
|
Production
|
-11,562
|
|
-220
|
|
-11,782
|
|
-1,839
|
|
-126,795
|
|
-34,754
|
Closing Balance
|
108,894
|
|
1,686
|
|
110,580
|
|
21,383
|
|
1,452,079
|
|
373,976
|
PROVED PLUS PROBABLE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Opening Balance
|
146,442
|
|
2,256
|
|
148,698
|
|
36,850
|
|
2,528,603
|
|
606,982
|
|
Exploration Discoveries
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Extensions and Improved Recovery(1)
|
18,373
|
|
99
|
|
18,472
|
|
4,755
|
|
145,069
|
|
47,405
|
|
Technical Revisions
|
1,436
|
|
47
|
|
1,483
|
|
107
|
|
118,498
|
|
21,340
|
|
Acquisitions
|
85
|
|
0
|
|
85
|
|
5
|
|
89
|
|
105
|
|
Dispositions
|
-1,773
|
|
-15
|
|
-1,788
|
|
-985
|
|
-24,293
|
|
-6,822
|
|
Economic Factors
|
27
|
|
-13
|
|
14
|
|
-10
|
|
-2,372
|
|
-391
|
|
Production
|
-11,562
|
|
-220
|
|
-11,782
|
|
-1,839
|
|
-126,795
|
|
-34,754
|
Closing Balance
|
153,028
|
|
2,154
|
|
155,182
|
|
38,882
|
|
2,638,799
|
|
633,864
|
(1)
|
Reserves additions for Infill Drilling, Improved Recovery and Extensions
are combined and reported as "Extensions and Improved Recovery".
|
|
RESERVE LIFE INDEX ("RLI")
ARC's 2P RLI was 15.5 years at year-end 2013 while the proved RLI was
9.1 years based upon the GLJ reserves and ARC's 2014 production
guidance mid-point of 112,000 boe per day. The increase in the 2P RLI
from 2009 through 2012 was attributed to the successful development of
the Montney region and the resultant growth in 2P reserves. Along with
the 2P reserves growth, ARC's annual average production increased from
63,538 boe per day in 2009 to 96,087 boe per day in 2013. ARC expects
significant year-over-year production growth based on estimated 2014
production of 110,000 to 114,000 boe per day. The decrease in the RLI
at year-end 2013 is due to the expected increase in 2014 production,
resulting from the development capital spent in 2013 to bring on new
production at Parkland, Tower and Sunrise. The following table
summarizes ARC's historical RLI.
Table 4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reserve Life Index
|
|
|
2013(1)
|
|
|
2012
|
|
|
2011
|
|
|
2010
|
|
|
2009
|
Total Proved
|
|
|
9.1
|
|
|
10.5
|
|
|
10.7
|
|
|
10.4
|
|
|
10.3
|
Proved Plus Probable
|
|
|
15.5
|
|
|
17.5
|
|
|
17.0
|
|
|
15.1
|
|
|
14.4
|
(1) Based on 2014 production guidance midpoint of 112,000 boe per
day.
|
NET PRESENT VALUE ("NPV") SUMMARY
ARC's crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids reserves were
evaluated using GLJ's commodity price forecasts effective January 1,
2014. The NPV is prior to provision for interest, debt service charges
and general and administrative expenses. It should not be assumed that the NPV of Cash Flow estimated by GLJ
represents the fair market value of the reserves. NPVs on both a before and after tax basis are presented below.
Table 5
|
|
|
|
|
|
NPV of Cash Flow (1)
|
Undiscounted
$MM
|
Discounted
at 5%
$MM
|
Discounted
at 10%
$MM
|
Discounted
at 15%
$MM
|
Discounted
at 20%
$MM
|
Before Tax
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proved Producing
|
6,368
|
4,600
|
3,651
|
3,057
|
2,650
|
Proved Developed Non-Producing
|
249
|
171
|
129
|
103
|
86
|
Proved Undeveloped
|
2,824
|
1,633
|
1,009
|
641
|
407
|
Total Proved
|
9,441
|
6,405
|
4,789
|
3,802
|
3,142
|
Probable
|
7,061
|
3,630
|
2,229
|
1,522
|
1,113
|
Proved plus Probable
|
16,501
|
10,034
|
7,018
|
5,324
|
4,255
|
After Tax (2)(3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proved Producing
|
5,357
|
3,917
|
3,134
|
2,641
|
2,299
|
Proved Developed Non-Producing
|
186
|
127
|
95
|
75
|
61
|
Proved Undeveloped
|
2,117
|
1,179
|
684
|
392
|
206
|
Total Proved
|
7,660
|
5,223
|
3,913
|
3,107
|
2,566
|
Probable
|
5,294
|
2,691
|
1,624
|
1,087
|
777
|
Proved plus Probable
|
12,954
|
7,913
|
5,538
|
4,194
|
3,343
|
(1)
|
Based on NI-51-101 Net Interest reserves and GLJ January 1, 2014
Forecast Prices and Costs.
|
(2)
|
Based on ARC's estimated tax pools at year-end 2013.
|
(3)
|
The after-tax net present value of ARC's oil and gas properties here
reflects the tax burden on the properties on a stand-alone basis. It
does not consider the business-entity-level tax situation, or tax
planning. It does not provide an estimate of the value at the level of
the business entity, which may be significantly different. ARC's
Audited Consolidated Financial Statements and Management's Discussion &
Analysis should be consulted for information at the business entity
level.
|
At a 10 per cent discount factor, and on a before tax basis, proved
producing reserves constitute 52 per cent of the 2P estimated value
while total proved reserves account for 68 per cent of the 2P estimated
value.
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT CAPITAL ("FDC")
NI 51-101 requires that F&D costs be calculated including changes in
FDC. Changes in forecast FDC occur annually as a result of development
activities, acquisition and disposition activities and capital cost
estimates that reflect the independent evaluator's best estimate of
what it will cost to bring the proved undeveloped and probable reserves
on production. Future development capital declined slightly to $3.3
billion at year-end 2013 relative to $3.4 billion at year end 2012.
The increase in FDC from reserve-adding capital in 2013 was offset by
lower well costs in certain fields resulting from capital efficiencies
gained with the application of multi-well pad development, and a
decrease in future drilling locations in certain fields. The decrease
in future drilling locations was the result of changes to the
development plans for certain fields whereby longer horizontal laterals
are planned, resulting in larger reserves per well and requiring fewer
wells to access the reserves.
Following is a summary of GLJ estimated FDC required to bring total
proved and probable reserves on production.
Table 6
|
Future Development Capital (1)
$ Millions
|
|
|
Total Proved
|
|
|
Total Proved +
Probable
|
2014
|
|
|
630
|
|
|
772
|
2015
|
|
|
538
|
|
|
769
|
2016
|
|
|
308
|
|
|
621
|
2017
|
|
|
248
|
|
|
438
|
2018
|
|
|
174
|
|
|
212
|
Remainder
|
|
|
111
|
|
|
491
|
Total FDC undiscounted
|
|
|
2,009
|
|
|
3,303
|
Total FDC discounted at 10%
|
|
|
1,645
|
|
|
2,588
|
(1) FDC as per GLJ independent reserve evaluation as of December 31,
2013 and based on GLJ forecast pricing as at January 1, 2014.
|
FINDING, DEVELOPMENT AND ACQUISITION COSTS ("FD&A")
ARC's F&D costs were $12.79 per boe and $17.45 per boe for 2P and proved
reserves, respectively in 2013, before changes in FDC ($11.47 per boe
and $18.11 per boe, respectively, for 2P and proved reserves, including
changes in FDC). ARC's three year average F&D costs were $8.24 per boe
for 2P reserves and $14.18 per boe for proved reserves, before changes
in FDC. The low F&D costs are attributed to the high quality of ARC's
property portfolio, excellent results from ARC's development program
and strong reserve growth particularly at Sunrise, Septimus, Dawson,
Parkland, Tower, Ante Creek, and Pembina.
Including net acquisitions, ARC's 2013 FD&A costs were $13.32 per boe of
2P reserves and $18.31 per boe of proved reserves, before changes in
FDC ($12.07 per boe and $19.18 per boe, respectively, for 2P and proved
reserves, including changes in FDC). The three year average FD&A costs
were $8.39 per boe for 2P reserves and $15.00 per boe for proved
reserves, before changes in FDC. ARC's low FD&A costs reflect ARC's
focus on high quality assets, cost management and allocation of
resources and capital to the highest rate of return projects.
The following table illustrates FD&A costs excluding and including
changes in FDC.
Table 7
|
|
Excluding FDC
|
Including FDC
|
FD&A costs - Company Gross (1)(2)
$ Thousands
|
Proved
|
Proved +
Probable
|
Proved
|
Proved +
Probable
|
E&D capital expenditures
|
874,190
|
874,190
|
874,190
|
874,190
|
E&D capital expenditures - change in FDC
|
-
|
-
|
33,015
|
(90,205)
|
|
Total E&D capital expenditures
|
874,190
|
874,190
|
907,206
|
783,985
|
Net acquisition (disposition)
|
(53,345)
|
(53,345)
|
(53,345)
|
(53,345)
|
Net acquisition (disposition) - change in FDC
|
-
|
-
|
5,885
|
13,535
|
Total net acquisition (disposition)
|
(53,345)
|
(53,345)
|
(47,460)
|
(39,810)
|
|
Total capital including net acquisition
(disposition)
|
820,846
|
820,846
|
859,746
|
744,175
|
E&D reserve additions
|
50,107
|
68,353
|
50,107
|
68,353
|
Net acquisition (disposition) reserves
|
(5,281)
|
(6,717)
|
(5,281)
|
(6,717)
|
|
Reserve additions including net
dispositions
|
44,826
|
61,636
|
44,826
|
61,636
|
FD&A costs - $ per boe:
|
|
|
|
|
F&D Costs - Current Year
|
17.45
|
12.79
|
18.11
|
11.47
|
F&D Costs - Three Year Average
|
14.18
|
8.24
|
17.42
|
12.01
|
FD&A Costs - Current Year
|
18.31
|
13.32
|
19.18
|
12.07
|
FD&A Costs - Three Year Average
|
15.00
|
8.39
|
18.57
|
12.47
|
(1)
|
The aggregate of Exploration and Development ("E&D") costs incurred in
the most recent financial year and the change during that year in
estimated future development costs ("FDC") generally will not reflect
total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for
that year.
|
(2)
|
Under NI 51-101, the calculation of F&D costs must incorporate the
change in future development capital required to bring the proved
undeveloped and probable reserves to production. In all cases, the
F&D, or FD&A number is calculated by dividing the identified capital
expenditures by the applicable reserves additions both before and after
changes in FDC costs.
|
Table 8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Company Gross Historic FD&A
Costs
($ per boe)
|
|
|
2013
|
|
|
2012
|
|
|
2011
|
|
|
2010
|
|
|
2009
|
Proved Reserves:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annual FD&A excluding FDC
|
|
|
18.31
|
|
|
16.76
|
|
|
11.11
|
|
|
13.35
|
|
|
10.53
|
Three year average FD&A excluding FDC
|
|
|
15.00
|
|
|
13.38
|
|
|
12.02
|
|
|
12.82
|
|
|
13.86
|
Annual FD&A including FDC
|
|
|
19.18
|
|
|
19.96
|
|
|
17.13
|
|
|
18.21
|
|
|
14.36
|
Three year average FD&A including FDC
|
|
|
18.57
|
|
|
18.25
|
|
|
16.95
|
|
|
18.04
|
|
|
18.41
|
Proved plus Probable Reserves:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annual FD&A excluding FDC
|
|
|
13.32
|
|
|
9.34
|
|
|
5.24
|
|
|
9.23
|
|
|
6.46
|
Three Year Average FD&A excluding FDC
|
|
|
8.39
|
|
|
7.80
|
|
|
7.15
|
|
|
8.62
|
|
|
9.61
|
Annual FD&A including FDC
|
|
|
12.07
|
|
|
13.26
|
|
|
12.23
|
|
|
14.26
|
|
|
11.59
|
Three Year Average FD&A including FDC
|
|
|
12.47
|
|
|
13.30
|
|
|
12.90
|
|
|
14.08
|
|
|
14.81
|
NE B.C. MONTNEY RESOURCES EVALUATION
The following discussion in "NE B.C. Montney Resources Evaluation" is
subject to a number of cautionary statements, assumptions and risks as
set forth therein. See "Information Regarding Disclosure on Oil and
Gas Reserves, Resources and Operational Information" at the end of this
release for additional cautionary language, explanations and discussion
and "Forward Looking Statements" for a statement of principal
assumptions and risks that may apply. See also "Definitions of Oil and
Gas Resources and Reserves" in this news release. The discussion
includes reference to TPIIP, DPIIP and ECR as per the GLJ Petroleum
Consultants Ltd. ("GLJ") Resources Evaluation as at December 31, 2013,
prepared in accordance with the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation
Handbook ("COGE Handbook"). Unless indicated otherwise in this news
release, all references to ECR volumes are Best Estimate ECR volumes.
The Montney formation in NE B.C. has been identified as a world class
unconventional natural gas resource play with the potential for
significant volumes of recoverable resources. The area includes dry
gas, liquids-rich gas and crude oil development opportunities. It is
one of the largest and lowest cost natural gas resource plays in North
America. ARC has a significant presence in the region with a land
position of 527 net sections, located primarily in the most prospective
areas of the play.
GLJ was commissioned to conduct an Independent Resources Evaluation for
ARC's lands in the NE B.C. Montney region including Dawson, Parkland,
Tower, Red Creek, Sunrise/Sunset, Attachie, Septimus, Sundown, and
Blueberry in northeastern B.C and Pouce Coupe just across the border in
Alberta (the "Evaluated Areas"). The Resources Evaluation was
effective December 31, 2013 based on GLJ forecast pricing as at January
1, 2014. All references in the following discussion to ECR, TPIIP and
DPIIP are in reference to the Evaluated Areas included in the
Independent Resources Evaluation. See "Definitions of Oil and Gas Resources and Reserves" in this news release.
The evaluation reaffirmed that the NE B.C. Montney region provides a
significant long-term growth opportunity with considerable potential
reserves, extending well beyond existing booked reserves and even the
current estimates of the Economic Contingent Resource ("ECR"). ARC's
NE B.C. Montney assets provide optionality for future growth through
commodity price cycles given the diversity of ARC's Montney
landholdings with exposure to liquids-rich natural gas, crude oil and
dry natural gas. We believe there is considerable upside in our NE
B.C. Montney assets given our significant resource base.
ARC's 2013 capital development program was focused on crude oil and
liquids rich-gas opportunities throughout ARC's entire asset portfolio
while maintaining gas production. In NE B.C., ARC's capital development
program consisted of drilling 41 gross operated (40.5 net) wells
comprised 13 oil wells at Tower, 15 liquids-rich wells at Parkland and
13 gas wells (nine wells at Dawson, two wells at Sunrise, one well at
Attachie and one well at Blueberry).
TPIIP for the gas bearing lands in the evaluated areas increased 10 per
cent relative to 2012 to 55.1 Tcf. The 2013 drilling program resulted
in a 12 per cent increase of DPIIP for the evaluated areas to 30.4
Tcf. Growth in gas TPIIP and DPIIP is primarily attributed to 2013
land acquisition activity in Attachie, Blueberry and Pouce Coupe.
Natural gas ECR increased to 4.5 Tcf from 4.2 Tcf in the 2012 evaluation
and 2P natural gas reserves increased to 2.2 Tcf from 2.1 Tcf. These
increases were primarily the result of land acquisitions, drilling
activity in 2013 and future drilling activity. The natural gas
prospective resources increased slightly from 3.8 Tcf to 3.9 Tcf,
primarily due to land acquisitions
NGL 2P reserves associated with the natural gas resource increased 10
per cent from 24.7 mmbbls in the 2012 evaluation to 27.2 mmbbls. NGL's
ECR increased five percent from 111.2 mmbbls to 116.5 mmbbls and NGL's
prospective resource increased slightly from 113.6 mmbbls to 114.1
mmbbls in 2013, due to increased land holdings.
On the oil bearing lands at Tower, Red Creek and Attachie East, GLJ
identified 2,189 mmbbls of TPIIP and 1,714 mmbbls of DPIIP as well as
10.7 mmbbls of ECR and 11.2 mmbbls of 2P reserves. The increase in oil
TPIIP and DPIIP is attributed to land acquisition activity at Red
Creek. The Tower field is still in the early stages of development and
Red Creek is in the exploration stage, therefore additional production
data is required to better understand the recoverable potential of
these fields. However, with continual advancements in drilling and
completion technology, early indications are very favorable for
exploitation of this significant oil resource.
The following tables summarize the results of the 2013 and 2012
resources evaluations.
Table 9a
|
|
|
2013
|
|
|
2012
|
Natural Gas Resource Categories (1)(2)(3)(4)
|
|
|
Tcf
|
|
|
Tcf
|
Total Petroleum Initially In Place (TPIIP)
|
|
|
55.1
|
|
|
50.1
|
Discovered Petroleum Initially In Place (DPIIP)
|
|
|
30.4
|
|
|
27.2
|
Undiscovered Petroleum Initially In Place (UPIIP)
|
|
|
24.7
|
|
|
22.9
|
(1)
|
TPIIP, DPIIP and UPIIP have been estimated using a zero percent porosity
cut-off which means that all gas bearing rock has been incorporated
into the calculations. Using a three per cent porosity cut-off, the
2013 TPIIP, DPIIP and UPIIP estimates would be 42.9 Tcf, 25.2 Tcf, and
17.7 Tcf, respectively.
|
(2)
|
The Resource Categories in this table do not include the free
oil/liquids.
|
(3)
|
All volumes in table are company gross and raw gas volumes.
|
(4)
|
TPIIP includes 0.9 Tcf and DPIIP include 0.8 Tcf of solution gas
associated with Tower oil and Red Creek oil.
|
Table 9b
|
|
|
2013
|
|
|
2012
|
Oil Resource Categories (1)(2)(3)
|
|
|
mmbbls
|
|
|
mmbbls
|
Total Petroleum Initially In Place (TPIIP)
|
|
|
2,189.0
|
|
|
1,467.0
|
Discovered Petroleum Initially In Place (DPIIP)
|
|
|
1,714.0
|
|
|
1,467.0
|
Undiscovered Petroleum Initially in Place (UPIIP)
|
|
|
475.0
|
|
|
-
|
(1)
|
TPIIP, DPIIP and UPIIP have been estimated using a three percent
porosity cut-off for oil due to lower mobility for oil relative to
gas. Using a six per cent porosity cut-off, the 2013 TPIIP, DPIIP and
UPIIP estimates would be 924 mmbls, 742 mmbbls and 182 mmbbls.
|
(2)
|
All volumes in table are company gross.
|
(3)
|
The oil DPIIP is a Stock Tank Barrel ("STB")
|
Table 9c
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reserves and Economic Contingent Resources (1)(2)
|
|
|
2013 Best
Estimate
|
|
|
2012 Best
Estimate
|
Natural Gas (Tcf)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reserves (3)
|
|
|
2.2
|
|
|
2.1
|
Economic Contingent Resources
|
|
|
4.5
|
|
|
4.2
|
Natural Gas Liquids (mmbbls) (4)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reserves (3)
|
|
|
27.2
|
|
|
24.7
|
Economic Contingent Resources
|
|
|
116.5
|
|
|
111.2
|
Oil (mmbbls)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reserves (3)
|
|
|
11.2
|
|
|
7.6
|
Economic Contingent Resources
|
|
|
10.7
|
|
|
12.6
|
(1)
|
All DPIIP other than cumulative production, reserves, and ECR has been
categorized as unrecoverable. Cumulative Raw production to year end
2013 was 0.4 Tcf of gas, 0.5 mmbbls of oil and 4.0 mmbbls of NGLs,
which are all immaterial in relation to the Reserves and ECR magnitude.
(NGL cumulative production is calculated based on current NGL
recoveries).
|
(2)
|
All volumes in table are company gross and sales volumes.
|
(3)
|
For reserves, the volume under the heading Best Estimate are 2P
reserves.
|
(4)
|
The liquid yields are based on average yield over the producing life of
the property.
|
Table 9d
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prospective Resources (1)(2)
|
|
|
2013 Best
Estimate
|
|
|
2012 Best
Estimate
|
Natural gas (Tcf)
|
|
|
3.9
|
|
|
3.8
|
Natural gas liquids (mmbbls)
|
|
|
114.1
|
|
|
113.6
|
(1)
|
All UPIIP other than Prospective Resources has been categorized as
unrecoverable. GLJ estimated DPIIP values using a porosity cut-off of
three per cent for natural gas and six per cent for oil.
|
(2)
|
All volumes in table are company gross and sales volumes.
|
Based upon the forgoing analysis and ARC's expertise in the Montney
formation in NE B.C., it is expected that significant additional
reserves will be developed in the future with continued drilling
success on currently undeveloped Montney acreage together with further
development, completion refinements and improved economic conditions.
Historic drilling success and recoveries on the more fully developed
Montney acreage, abundant well log and production test data, and the
application of increased drilling densities support ARC's belief that
significant additional resources will be recovered. Continuous
development through multi-year exploration and development programs and
significant levels of future capital expenditures are required in order
for additional resources to be recovered in the future. The principal
risks that would inhibit the recovery of additional reserves relate to
the potential for variations in the quality of the Montney formation
where minimal well data currently exists, access to the capital which
would be required to develop the resources, low commodity prices that
would curtail the economics of development and the future performance
of wells, regulatory approvals, access to the required services at the
appropriate cost, and the effectiveness of fraccing technology and
applications. The primary contingencies that prevent the economic
contingent resources from being classified as reserves are the
requirement for additional drilling, completion and testing data to
confirm commercial production rates for development not immediately
offsetting existing production. Confirmation of commercial
productivity is generally required before the company can prepare firm
development plans and commit required capital for the development of
the ECR. Additional contingencies are related to the current lack of
infrastructure required to develop the resources in a relatively quick
time frame. As continued delineation occurs, some resources currently
classified as ECR are expected to be re-classified to Reserves.
DEFINITIONS OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES AND RESERVES
Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related
substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as
of a given date, based on the analysis of drilling, geological,
geophysical and engineering data; the use of established technology;
and specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as
being reasonable. Reserves are classified according to the degree of
certainty associated with the estimates as follows:
|
|
|
|
Proved Reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty
to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities
recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probable Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than
proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the
estimated proved plus probable reserves.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Possible Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than
probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities
recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable
plus possible reserves.
|
|
|
|
Resources encompasses all petroleum quantities that originally existed on or
within the earth's crust in naturally occurring accumulations,
including Discovered and Undiscovered (recoverable and unrecoverable)
plus quantities already produced. "Total resources" is equivalent to
"Total Petroleum Initially-In-Place". Resources are classified in the
following categories:
|
|
|
|
Total Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("TPIIP") is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist originally in
naturally occurring accumulations. It includes that quantity of
petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in
known accumulations, prior to production, plus those estimated
quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("DPIIP") is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to
be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The
recoverable portion of discovered petroleum initially in place includes
production, reserves, and contingent resources; the remainder is
unrecoverable.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established
technology or technology under development but which are not currently
considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more
contingencies.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economic Contingent Resources ("ECR") are those contingent resources which are currently economically
recoverable.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undiscovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("UPIIP") is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, on a given date, to be
contained in accumulations yet to be discovered. The recoverable
portion of undiscovered petroleum initially in place is referred to as
"prospective resources" and the remainder as "unrecoverable."
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application
of future development projects.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unrecoverable is that portion of DPIIP and UPIIP quantities which is estimated, as of
a given date, not to be recoverable by future development projects. A
portion of these quantities may become recoverable in the future as
commercial circumstances change or technological developments occur;
the remaining portion may never be recovered due to the
physical/chemical constraints represented by subsurface interaction of
fluids and reservoir rocks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Uncertainty Ranges are described by the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as low,
best, and high estimates for reserves and resources. The Best Estimate is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will
actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If
probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50 percent
probability (P50) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or
exceed the best estimate.
|
INFORMATION REGARDING DISCLOSURE ON OIL AND GAS RESERVES, RESOURCES AND
OPERATIONAL INFORMATION
All amounts in this news release are stated in Canadian dollars unless
otherwise specified. Where applicable, natural gas has been converted
to barrels of oil equivalent ("BOE") based on 6 Mcf:1 BOE. The BOE
rate is based on an energy equivalent conversion method primarily
applicable at the burner tip, and given that the value ratio based on
the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is
significantly different than the energy equivalency of the 6:1
conversion ratio, utilizing the 6:1 conversion ratio may be misleading
as an indication of value. The BOE rate is based on an energy
equivalent conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and
does not represent a value equivalent at the wellhead. Use of BOE in
isolation may be misleading. In accordance with Canadian practice,
production volumes and revenues are reported on a company gross basis,
before deduction of Crown and other royalties, unless otherwise stated.
Unless otherwise specified, all reserves volumes in this news release
(and all information derived therefrom) are based on "company gross
reserves" using forecast prices and costs. Our oil and gas reserves
statement for the year-ended December 31, 2013, which will include
complete disclosure of our oil and gas reserves and other oil and gas
information in accordance with NI 51-101, will be contained within our
Annual Information Form which will be available on our SEDAR profile at
www.sedar.com.
This news release contains references to estimates of oil and gas
classified as TPIIP, DPIIP, UPIIP and ECR in the Montney region in
northeastern British Columbia which are not, and should not be confused
with, oil and gas reserves. See "Definitions of Oil and Gas Resources and Reserves".
Projects have not been defined to develop the resources in the Evaluated
Areas as at the evaluation date. Such projects, in the case of the
Montney resource development, have historically been developed
sequentially over a number of drilling seasons and are subject to
annual budget constraints, ARC's policy of orderly development on a
staged basis, the timing of the growth of third party infrastructure,
the short and long-term view of ARC on gas prices, the results of
exploration and development activities of ARC and others in the area
and possible infrastructure capacity constraints.
ARC's belief that it will establish significant additional reserves over
time with conversion of DPIIP into ECR, ECR into 2P reserves and
probable reserves into proved reserves is a forward looking statement
and is based on certain assumptions and is subject to certain risks, as
discussed below under the heading "Forward Looking Information and
Statements".
NOTICE TO U.S. READERS
The oil and natural gas reserves contained in this press release have
generally been prepared in accordance with Canadian disclosure
standards, which are not comparable in all respects of United States or
other foreign disclosure standards. For example, the United States
Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") generally permits oil
and gas issuers, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved
reserves (as defined in SEC rules). Canadian securities laws require
oil and gas issuers, in their filings with Canadian securities
regulators, to disclose not only proved reserves (which are defined
differently from the SEC rules) but also probable reserves, each as
defined in NI 51-101. Accordingly, proved reserves disclosed in this
news release may not be comparable to U.S. standards, and in this news
release, ARC has disclosed reserves designated as "probable reserves"
and "proved plus probable reserves". Probable reserves are higher risk
and are generally believed to be less likely to be accurately estimated
or recovered than proved reserves. The SEC's guidelines strictly
prohibit reserves in these categories from being included in filings
with the SEC that are required to be prepared in accordance with U.S.
disclosure requirements. In addition, under Canadian disclosure
requirements and industry practice, reserves and production are
reported using gross volumes, which are volumes prior to deduction of
royalty and similar payments. The practice in the United States is to
report reserves and production using net volumes, after deduction of
applicable royalties and similar payments. Moreover, ARC has determined
and disclosed estimated future net revenue from its reserves using
forecast prices and costs, whereas the SEC generally requires that
prices and costs be held constant at levels in effect at the date of
the reserve report. As a consequence of the foregoing, ARC's reserve
estimates and production volumes in this news release may not be
comparable to those made by companies utilizing United States reporting
and disclosure standards. Additionally, the SEC prohibits disclosure
of oil and gas resources, whereas Canadian issuers may disclose
resource volumes. Resources are different than, and should not be
construed as, reserves. For a description of the definition of, and the
risks and uncertainties surrounding the disclosure of, resources, see
above.
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION AND STATEMENTS
This news release contains certain forward-looking information and
statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of
any of the words "expect", "anticipate", "continue", "estimate",
"objective", "ongoing", "may", "will", "project", "should", "believe",
"plans", "intends", "strategy" and similar expressions are intended to
identify forward-looking information or statements. In particular, but
without limiting the foregoing, this news release contains
forward-looking information and statements pertaining to the following:
the recognition of significant additional reserves under the heading
"2013 Independent Reserve Evaluation" and the recognition of
significant resources under the heading "NE B.C. Montney Resources
Evaluation", the volumes and estimated value of ARC's oil and gas
reserves; the life of ARC's reserves; the volume and product mix of
ARC's oil and gas production; future oil and natural gas prices; future
results from operations and operating metrics; and future development,
exploration, acquisition and development activities (including drilling
plans) and related production expectations.
The forward-looking information and statements contained in this news
release reflect several material factors and expectations and
assumptions of ARC including, without limitation: that ARC will
continue to conduct its operations in a manner consistent with past
operations; results from drilling and development activities consistent
with past results; the continued and timely development of
infrastructure in areas of new production; the general continuance of
current industry conditions; the continuance of existing (and in
certain circumstances, the implementation of proposed) tax, royalty and
regulatory regimes; the accuracy of the estimates of ARC's reserve and
resource volumes; certain commodity price and other cost assumptions;
and the continued availability of adequate debt and equity financing
and cash flow to fund its plans expenditures. There are a number of
assumptions associated with the development of the Evaluated Areas,
including the quality of the Montney reservoir, continued performance
from existing wells, future drilling programs and performance from new
wells, the growth of infrastructure, well density per section, and
recovery factors and development necessarily involves known and unknown
risks and uncertainties, including those risks identified in this press
release. ARC believes the material factors, expectations and
assumptions reflected in the forward-looking information and statements
are reasonable but no assurance can be given that these factors,
expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct.
The forward-looking information and statements included in this news
release are not guarantees of future performance and should not be
unduly relied upon. Such information and statements involve known and
unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual
results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such
forward-looking information or statements including, without
limitation: changes in commodity prices; the early stage of development
of some areas in the Evaluated Areas; the potential for variation in
the quality of the Montney formation, changes in the demand for or
supply of ARC's products; unanticipated operating results or production
declines; unanticipated results from ARC's exploration and development
activities; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or
other regulatory matters; changes in development plans of ARC or by
third party operators of ARC's properties, increased debt levels or
debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of ARC's oil and gas
reserve and resource volumes; limited, unfavorable or a lack of access
to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance
coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed
from time to time in ARC's public disclosure documents (including,
without limitation, those risks identified in this news release and in
ARC's Annual Information Form).
The forward-looking information and statements contained in this news
release speak only as of the date of this news release, and none of ARC
or its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to publicly update or revise
them to reflect new events or circumstances, except as may be required
pursuant to applicable laws.
ARC Resources Ltd. ("ARC") is one of Canada's largest conventional oil
and gas companies with an enterprise value of approximately $10
billion. ARC expects 2014 oil and gas production to average 110,000
to 114,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from its properties in
western Canada. ARC's Common Shares trade on the TSX under the symbol
ARX.
ARC RESOURCES LTD.
Myron M. Stadnyk
President and Chief Executive Officer
SOURCE ARC Resources Ltd.
Image with caption: "ARC Resources' Tower Well Pad in northeast British Columbia. (CNW Group/ARC Resources Ltd.)". Image available at: http://photos.newswire.ca/images/download/20140205_C7666_PHOTO_EN_36327.jpg
ARC Resources Ltd.
Suite 1200, 308 - 4th Avenue S.W.
Calgary, AB T2P 0H7