Leading indicators suggest the U.S. economy is getting back on track
ATLANTA, April 8, 2014 /PRNewswire/ - Recent economic news has been mostly
disappointing, but leading indicators suggest stronger growth ahead,
according to the experts at Atlantic Trust, the U.S. private wealth
management division of CIBC (NYSE: CM) (TSX: CM).
While U.S. retail, manufacturing and construction were likely impacted
by the severe weather patterns evident in many parts of the country
this winter, Atlantic Trust's Chief Investment Officer David L.
Donabedian, CFA, says most of the activity in these sectors has simply
been delayed rather than lost and will be made up in the months ahead.
"Economic indicators for March support the notion that the economy is
getting back on track," he says. "We are sticking with our expectation
of a solid year from the U.S. economy but are watching the data
closely."
Federal Reserve policy is always a critical variable for financial
markets, but Donabedian says it is especially so this year as the
markets are dealing with a "new Fed" in two respects: a change in
leadership from Ben Bernanke to Janet Yellen; and, a change in policy
as the central bank phases out quantitative easing and contemplates
raising short-term interest rates. "Our base case on the Fed continues
to be that policy change will inject more volatility into both stock
and bond markets, but the reason for the policy change—rising
confidence in a post-bubble normalization of the economy—is
fundamentally bullish for equities," says Donabedian.
In many ways, the short-term challenges facing the U.S. seem relatively
tame compared to a variety of big macro issues in other parts of the
world. This is one reason why equity valuations in the U.S. are higher.
Recent events in Russia and Ukraine have injected both economic and
geopolitical uncertainties into the outlook. The primary economic issue
relates to reliance of western Europe on Russian oil and gas supplies.
There is a risk that Russia squeezes or cuts off that supply as a salvo
in the sanctions battle, he says. "However, a bigger risk—and a truly
global one—would be a further incursion by Russia into Ukrainian
territory beyond Crimea," adds Donabedian. "The situation is highly
unpredictable, and we are watching it closely."
Emerging markets represent the most attractive valuations and long-term
growth potential in global equity markets, and also represent more than
half of the world's economic activity. While it is an important
strategic asset class, questions about China along with negative
inflation and currency trends in a handful of other emerging economies
mean it may take a while longer for these markets to return to favor,
he says.
The experienced team of investment strategy professionals at Atlantic
Trust designs investment portfolios that seek to reduce the impact of
market volatility while the team also attempts to capitalize on a broad
range of investment opportunities on behalf of clients. Visit www.atlantictrust.com for more information, or explore Atlantic Trust's Online Resource Center for additional investment and wealth management resources.
About Atlantic Trust
Atlantic Trust is one of the nation's leading private wealth management
firms, offering integrated wealth management for high-net-worth
individuals, families, foundations and endowments. The firm considers
clients' financial, trust, estate planning and philanthropic needs in
developing customized asset allocation and investment management
strategies. Experienced professionals deliver a broad range of
solutions, including proprietary investment offerings and a robust open
architecture platform of traditional and alternative managers. Atlantic
Trust operates in 12 full-service locations throughout the U.S. with
$24.0 billion in assets under management (as of December 31, 2013). For
more information, visit www.atlantictrust.com.
About CIBC
CIBC is a leading Canadian-based global financial institution. Through
our Retail and Business Banking, Wealth Management and Wholesale
Banking businesses, CIBC provides a full range of financial products to
individual, small business, commercial, corporate and institutional
clients in Canada and around the world.
CIBC Wealth Management provides relationship-based advisory services and
an extensive suite of leading investment solutions to meet the needs of
personal, institutional and high-net-worth clients through an extensive
distribution network that includes CIBC Private Wealth Management, CIBC
Wood Gundy and CIBC Investor's Edge. Our asset management, retail
brokerage and private wealth management businesses combine to create an
integrated offer, delivered through nearly 1,500 advisors across
Canada. In addition, CIBC Asset Management provides global money
manager services to institutional and high-net-worth clients and
industry-leading retail investment solutions through our two mutual
fund families—CIBC and Renaissance—and the CIBC family of managed
portfolio solutions.
SOURCE Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management