Los Angeles, CA / September 11, 2014 / On Wednesday, CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSEMKT: CVM)
made public the fact that the respected University of Minnesota's Masonic Cancer Center has become
part of the company’s Phase III head and
neck cancer clinical trial. This is the 7th clinical site in the U.S. to join
CEL-SCI’s late stage study for its investigational cancer immunotherapy
treatment Multikine* (Leukocyte Interleukin, Injection).
Doubters may say what they’d like, but looking at the
recent news flow here and it certainly appears that management has turned the
corner on these trial enrolments. After a number of setbacks with a previous
contract research organization (CRO), management continues to expect that they
will expand the Multikine trials from 17 to 20
countries with an estimated 880 patients to be enrolled by the end of 2015. Let’s
face it, what happened with the previous CRO might have killed or
burdened the company with financial obligations too difficult to overcome if it
hadn’t been caught and turned around in time.
Doubters have cast their shadows on the firm’s enrollment goals. Some have stated
that they are simply unrealistic, but CEL-SCI just keeps (en)rolling along and
each time we see another development on this front, their formidable task looks
far more feasible.
The fact that they fired that previous contract research organization (inVentiv
Clinical, LLC (f/k/a PharmaNet, LLC and PharmaNet GmbH (f/k/a PharmaNet AG)
and then initiated an arbitration claim seeking at least $50 million in damages
against them has turned into a hidden trade catalyst for the stock as well. For those who don’t know, CEL-SCI's
arbitration claim was initiated under the Commercial Rules of the American
Arbitration Association alleging (I) breach of contract, (ii) fraud in the
inducement, and (III) common law fraud, and seeks at least $50 million in
damages. inVentiv tried hard to dismiss the arbitration claims, but they were
shot down according to more recent public filings. If a settlement is made or
CEL-SCI is awarded the damages they seek, it could not only cause the stock to
shoot up in value unexpectedly, it could also have serious implications for the
firm’s coffers as well. CEL-SCI might suddenly find the rest of their PHASE III
trial expenses fully paid for. Not bad for a company that has already beaten so
many of the odds that were placed against them in recent years.
Still the real issue here is valuation. As we have said
on more than one
occasion, we are bullish on CEL-SCI despite the fact that shares continue
to appear vastly
undervalued compared to others in the immunotherapy space.
As one looks at today’s market valuation for the firm, it still seems that
investors have yet to consider that the company has raised more than $200
million to forward Multikine to this last stage of research and trials. The market appears to have completely forgotten
that this firm has a trade secret manufacturing process and plant for which
they spent $70 million in developing and construction costs. None of those
numbers are reflected in today’s $82M market cap and that has to be frustrating
to long time share-holders.
CEL-SCI has been trading sideways at these levels for weeks
despite the fact that the Wm%R indicator says the stock is "oversold." That
tells us that smart traders are quietly accumulating shares at these bottom
level prices where support appears to be pretty solid. In other words, it appears
to us that this has become a relatively safe bottom bounce bet.
In fact, any positive news from Multikine’s Phase I study
with the Naval Medical Center in HIV/HPV co-infected men and women with
peri-anal warts would surely impact trade prices and we expect, given recent
news flow, that news from that segment of the development pipeline should be on
the horizon near term.
We seem to be running out of past concerns which may have
kept the stock depressed. Until the rest
of the market wakes up to that fact, were inclined to keep accumulating CEL-SCI
shares at these levels.
Why not? Prices and common sense valuation, it seems, can only go up from here.
SOURCE: Ray Dirks Research