SAN JOSE, Calif., Feb. 4, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Realtor.com® today predicted a Denver Broncos win over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50, which also would translate into good news for the 2016 housing market.
"Although there is no economically driven correlation between the outcome of the Super Bowl and the housing market, we have found a promising real estate predictor for the Super Bowl that's more effective than a coin toss," said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for realtor.com®, a leading destination of online real estate services operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA]; [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.
Realtor.com® leveraged the predictive power of Robert Stuvall's Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor phenomenon in reverse. Instead of using the winner of the Super Bowl to predict that year's stock market outcome, realtor.com® relied on the January performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to predict the outcome of the Super Bowl. Out of the 49 games to date, this predictor has anticipated the outcome of the Super Bowl 82 percent of the time.
This year, the market ended the month behind the line of scrimmage – down 5.5 percent – indicating a win for the American Football Conference team, the Denver Broncos. If the market had gained yards in January, the National Football Conference team – Carolina Panthers – would be expected to win the Super Bowl.
Realtor.com's® historical analysis also shows there is more than just celebrating in Denver when the Broncos win the Super Bowl. There is a strong correlation to the housing market.
Denver's past wins in the Super Bowl – in 1998 and 1999 – were also strong years for housing. In 1998, home prices gained a touchdown of 6 percent based on the Case-Shiller National Composite. Existing home sales showed a strong offense of 13 percent based on data from National Association of REALTORS®. Housing starts increased 9 percent based on data from the Commerce Department, with single-family starts up 12 percent. In 1999, the housing market was also in a strong scoring position – home prices gained 7 percent; existing home sales grew 3 percent; starts increased 2 percent with single-family starts up 3 percent.
When Denver loses the Super Bowl, the housing market is more of a wild card. In 1978, housing indicators had some strong drives, but turned over the ball in 1990. While the years 1987, 1988, and 2014 were a mixed bag of flags and positive yards following a Denver loss.
Table 1: Denver Broncos Outcome in Super Bowl and Housing Indicators
|
Year
|
Denver Outcome
|
Key Housing Indicators
|
|
1978
|
Loss
|
Home prices +14%. Existing home sales
+9%. Housing starts +2%. Single-family
starts -2%.
|
|
1987
|
Loss
|
Home prices +9%. Existing home sales
-1%. Housing starts -10%. Single-family
starts -3%.
|
|
1988
|
Loss
|
Home prices +7%. Existing home sales
+2%. Housing starts -7%. Single-family
starts -3%.
|
|
1990
|
Loss
|
Home prices +7%. Existing home sales
+13%. Housing starts -8%. Single-family
starts -4%.
|
|
1998
|
Win
|
Home prices +6%. Existing home sales
+13%. Housing starts +9%. Single-family
starts +12%.
|
|
1999
|
Win
|
Home prices +7%. Existing home sales
grew 3%. Starts increased 2%. Single-family
starts up 3%.
|
|
2014
|
Loss
|
Home prices +7%. Existing home sales
-3%. Housing starts +8%. Single-family
starts +5%.
|
About Move, Inc. and realtor.com®
Move, Inc. operates the realtor.com® website and mobile experiences, which provide buyers, sellers and renters of homes with the information, tools and professional expertise they need to discover and create their perfect home. News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA]; [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] acquired Move in November 2014, and realtor.com® quickly established itself as the fastest growing online real estate service provider as measured by comScore.
As the official website of the National Association of REALTORS®, consumers know they can look to realtor.com® for the most comprehensive and accurate information anytime, anywhere. With relationships with nearly 800 multiple listing services (MLS), realtor.com® has more than 3 million for-sale listings, which account for more than 97 percent of all MLS-listed for-sale properties. More than 90 percent of the listings are updated every 15 minutes. Move's network of websites provides consumers a wealth of innovative tools, including Doorsteps®, Moving.com™, SeniorHousingNetSM and others. Move supports real estate professionals by providing many services to grow their businesses in an increasing digital, on-demand world, including ListHub™, the nation's leading listing syndicator and centralized intelligence platform for the real estate industry; TigerLead®; Top Producer® Systems; and FiveStreetSM and Reesio as well as many free services.
Forward-Looking Statements
This document contains certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance as of the time the statements are made. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in global economic, business, competitive market and regulatory and other factors. More detailed information about these and other factors that could affect future results is contained in News Corp's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The "forward-looking statements" included in this document are made only as of the date of this document and we do not have any obligation to publicly update any "forward-looking statements" to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law.
Media Contact: Lexie Puckett, realtor.com, 805-557-3151
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SOURCE realtor.com