Aegis app tracker data for Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Pandora Media Inc (NYSE: P) showed very strong usage
trends in the fourth quarter, and both companies have reported above consensus financial results (Pandora
pre-announced).
Now, analyst Victor Anthony takes a look at what the data implies for other internet companies that have yet to report their
fourth-quarter numbers.
Investors should note that the apps do not capture mobile website activity and desktop activity, and these continue to
constitute a meaningful portion of revenues for several companies.
Internet Stocks Still To Report
Following are the implications of the data on various internet firms along with their earnings dates:
Amazon.com,
Inc. (NASDAQ:
AMZN): Buy, February 2.
- Very Positive, with strength on all metrics and on both app platforms. But, this is
Amazon’s
seasonally strong quarter, so those results are expected. Etsy Inc (NASDAQ: ETSY): Not Rated (NR), February 20.
- Looks Negative. In both iOS and Google Play, downloads, DAUs and MAUs declined month-over-month, in what should be a
seasonally strong quarter.
Expedia Inc (NASDAQ:
EXPE): NR,
February 9.
- Overall Positive. In iOS, November was a standout month across all three metrics, while in Google Play, December was the
standout month.
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:
FB): Buy, February
1.
- Overall Positive. Downloads, MAUs and DAUs were all solid in the quarter. For Instagram, app downloads were strong on both
mobile platforms, and in Google Play, MAUs and DAUs were solid.
- “However, we did see a softening of MAUs and DAUs in iOS,” Anthony wrote in a note.
Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:
GRPN): NR,
February 9.
- Looks Negative. In Google Play, downloads, DAUs and MAUs declined month-over-month in every month of the quarter in what
should be a seasonally stronger quarter. In iOS, the trends were similar but the declines were less pronounced.
GrubHub Inc (NYSE:
GRUB): NR, February
8.
- Looks Positive. In iOS, app traffic held steady in each month of the quarter. However, in Google Play, app traffic was lumpy
with November being a particularly strong month.
Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:
MTCH): Buy,
January 31.
- Positive. All metrics on iOS and Google Play were very strong for Tinder, in what is a seasonally weak quarter for online
dating. App downloads, DAUs, MAUs and ARPU was up strongly in the fourth quarter.
Paypal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:
PYPL):
NR, January 26.
- Mixed. The data showed healthy app traffic trends in iOS but trends softened in the last two months of the quarter in Google
Play.
Priceline Group Inc (NASDAQ:
PCLN):
NR, February 15.
- Overall Positive. In iOS, the data showed a dip in November app usage and a recovery over and above in December across all
the metrics. In Google Play, December was a particularly strong month across all the metrics.
Shutterfly, Inc. (NASDAQ:
SFLY): Buy,
February 1.
- Very Positive. App downloads, MAUs and DAUs were up nicely in each month of 4Q. While this is expected due to seasonality, it
is notable given that competition is elevated during the holiday season.
Snap (IPO expected this year).
- Very Positive. App downloads, MAUs and DAUs have been exceptionally strong on both app platforms.
Twitter Inc (NYSE:
TWTR): Sell, February
9.
- Mixed to Positive. On Google Play, DAUs and MAUs declined in November over October and in December over November. In iOS,
both metrics held steady throughout the months of the quarter.
Wayfair Inc (NYSE:
W): NR, February 23.
- Mixed to Negative. In iOS, November app traffic was stronger than October, but December was weaker than both November and
October. Google Play also showed similar trends.
XO Group Inc (NYSE:
XOXO): Buy, March 1.
- Mixed. Very healthy app traffic trends for The Knot in iOS, but softening was seen throughout the quarter on Google Play for
downloads, MAUs and DAUs.
Yelp Inc (NYSE:
YELP): Buy, February 6.
- Mixed to Negative. In iOS, app downloads increased month-over-month. However, both MAUs and DAUs softened in the last two
months of 4Q. The story was gloomy in Google Play, where downloads, DAUs and MAUs declined month-over-month.
YouTube, a unit of
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:
GOOG) (NASDAQ:
GOOGL), January 26.
- Very Positive. In both iOS and Play, Downloads, MAUs, DAUs and monetization were up in each month of the quarter and that
strength has continued into the current quarter. YouTube has shown one of the strongest trends of all the apps that Aegis is
tracking.
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