Market Reaction To Bristol-Myers' Mixed Clinical Results: 'A Little Excessive'

Credit Suisse termed the market reaction to Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE: BMY)'s CM-214 data as overly pessimistic. The comment was based on the 3-percent pullback in the company's shares in after-hours trading Tuesday.

However, at the time of writing, shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb were down 1.04 percent at $57.28.

The firm noted that the company reported topline data for its late-stage CheckMate-2214 study of Opdivo + Yervoy as first-line treatment for renal cell carcinoma.

Analysts Vamil Divan, Michael Morabito, Barbara Kotai and Duaa Mohamed noted that the results were mixed, with the combination showing an improved objective response rate as compared to Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE)'s Sutent. However, the analysts noted that the combo narrowly missed statistical significance on improved progression-free survival.

Credit Suisse indicated that the majority of the alpha in the study was allocated to the third co-primary endpoint of overall survival. Therefore, the analyst said the progression free survival was not considered statistically significant despite the combo showing a 3.2-month improvement.

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The firm believes the data is unlikely to impact the current use of Opdivo in patients with RCC, who were previously treated. However, the firm thinks it would push out potential expansion into the broader first-line setting.

Based on the firm's conversation with the company and its review of clinicaltrials.gov, it thinks it will be another two years or so until OS data from the study will be available. In the meantime, the firm is of the view that competitors such as Pfizer, AstraZeneca plc (ADR) (NYSE: AZN) and Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) will work quickly to catch up in this indication.

"With the revenue opportunity being pushed out and potentially down due to added competition, we feel modest weakness in BMY shares (~1%) is reasonable, although the ~3% decline we are seeing after hours seems a little excessive," the firm said.

As such, Credit Suisse has a Neutral rating and $58 price target for the shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb.

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Image Credit: 'Chromophobe renal cell carcinoma with sarcomatoid differentiation -- high mag" By Nephron (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons

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