Phoenix, Dallas and Orlando were the most popular migration destinations of 2021, but with home prices up roughly 30% in certain Sun Belt hotspots, some locals are getting priced out and some relocators may have second thoughts
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Phoenix was the most popular U.S. migration destination of 2021, followed by Dallas and Orlando, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Redfin estimates the Phoenix metro gained roughly 85,000 residents from other metro areas in 2021, far more than any other metro, while Dallas gained about 56,000 and Orlando gained about 53,000.
The report ranks migration destinations by net inflow, a measure of how many more people moved into a metro area than out. The estimates of net inflows are based on search data from Redfin.com and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Nine of the 10 most popular migration destinations of 2021 are in the Sun Belt, and half had a median home-sale price under the national median of roughly $383,000 in December. But while hundreds of thousands of Americans flocked to Sun Belt cities last year in search of affordability, housing costs are rapidly rising. That’s largely because so many people—often remote workers taking advantage of low mortgage rates—are moving in from other areas. Nationwide, 31% of Redfin.com users looked to move to another metro in 2021, up from 25.6% in 2019, before the onset of the pandemic.
Home-price growth was well above the national growth rate (15% year over year) for all 10 of the most popular destinations in December. Similarly, the average growth in rental payments for new leases far outpaced national growth (14%) in seven of the 10 most popular metros.
In Phoenix, for example, the typical home sold for $435,000 in December, 28% more than a year earlier, and the average monthly rental payment increased 26% year over year to $2,100. Prices of consumer goods and services are also increasing faster in popular migration destinations, with prices in Phoenix up 8.4% year over year in the fourth quarter, the second-highest inflation rate in the U.S.
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U.S. metro areas that gained the most residents in 2021
Data in the net inflow column is for the full year 2021
All housing market stats are from December 2021
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Metro area
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Net inflow
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Median home price
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Median home price, YoY
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Average monthly rent payment, new leases
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Average monthly rent payment, new leases, YoY
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Number of homes for sale, YoY
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1
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Phoenix, AZ
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85,183
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$435,200
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28%
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$2,107
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26%
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-18.6%
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2
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Dallas, TX
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56,449
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$385,000
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20.3%
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$2,081
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28.5%
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-27.6%
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3
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Orlando, FL
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52,621
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$356,000
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22.8%
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$2,050
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28.8%
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-29%
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4
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Atlanta, GA
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37,970
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$350,000
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22.8%
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$2,016
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12.1%
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-27.4%
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5
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Tampa, FL
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37,440
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$338,000
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24.3%
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$2,076
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28.1%
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-8%
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6
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Austin, TX
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32,184
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$482,100
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30.3%
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$2,290
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39.9%
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-6.5%
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7
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Las Vegas, NV
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31,701
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$399,400
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24.8%
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$1,820
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25.2%
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-27.7%
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8
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Charlotte, NC
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28,546
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$357,000
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20.4%
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$1,730
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11.5%
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-31.4%
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9
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Denver, CO
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25,665
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$540,000
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19.5%
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$2,661
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19%
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-26.8
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10
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San Antonio, TX
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23,909
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$308,600
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18.7%
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$1,386
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11.5%
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-17.8%
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“Moving across the country is now easier for many Americans, thanks to remote work. That cultural shift is here to stay,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “What’s changing is the affordability of the most popular destinations. Some locals, particularly renters who aren’t able to take advantage of rising home values, are getting priced out of places like Phoenix and Austin as the cost of housing and other goods and services go up. New construction tends to be robust in sprawling Sun Belt cities, and local governments ought to continue to prioritize building new homes to keep up with ongoing demand.”
Out-of-towners with big budgets are helping fuel rapid price growth in the most popular destinations. In eight of the 10 most popular destinations (the two Florida metros are the exception), the average out-of-towner’s budget was at least 15% higher than the average local’s budget in the first quarter of 2021.
“Sellers are listing their homes at higher prices than ever before, partly because of huge demand in the last year from out-of-towners,” said Austin Redfin agent Barb Cooper. “I recently had a couple looking for a 2,000-square-foot home anywhere in the Austin area for under $300,000. I had to tell them it doesn’t exist.”
To read the full report, including methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/homebuyer-migration-2021-rising-home-prices/
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220207005205/en/