New vehicle sales levels in October remain unchanged from the ongoing trend
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Oct. 28, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- On a volume estimate of 1.315 million units, S&P Global Mobility expects U.S. light vehicle sales in October to realize year-over-year growth of 11%. While the volume improvement can be attributed to two additional selling days in the month compared to last year, this result would translate to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units, one of the better results for the SAAR metric this year.
As we begin the final quarter, there's potential that automakers will look to provide additional support for consumers
"As we begin the final quarter of the calendar year, there's potential that automakers will look to provide some additional support for consumers," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "This would be warmly received by new vehicle shoppers who continue to be pressured by high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high monthly payments."
Support from advancing inventories also provides some signals that auto sales could develop further to close out the year.
According to S&P Global Mobility Retail Advertised Inventory data, retail advertised inventory in the U.S. soared to just over 3 million units in September 2024. "This is a significant 4.7% increase from the previous month and breaking the three-million mark for the first time in our dataset," said Matt Trommer, associate director at S&P Global Mobility. "This surge aligns with a broader trend we've observed over the past two years, where inventory levels consistently rise in the fall."
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US Light Vehicle Sales
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Oct 24 (Est)
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Sep 24
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Oct 23
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Total Light Vehicle
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Units, NSA
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1,315,000
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1,169,908
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1,198,162
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In millions, SAAR
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15.9
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15.8
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15.3
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Light Truck
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In millions, SAAR
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12.9
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12.8
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12.3
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Passenger Car
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In millions, SAAR
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data, BEV share of sales has been above 8% every month since June, certainly reflecting progress from levels earlier in the year. September BEV share was estimated to reach above 9% and we expect October BEV sales to remain above that level again. Assisted by the sustained roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue and to be followed by new BEVs such as the Polestar 3, Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the fourth quarter, electric vehicle sales are expected to advance over the remainder of the year.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
