The plane shook and shuddered as we crossed mountain ranges and carved through unstable Asian air en route to India.
Even less stable at the time were the countries below us. It was just after I’d witnessed the British handover of Hong Kong to the Chinese back in 1997. And no sooner had I left Hong Kong than the Asian Financial Crisis began.
Thailand was the first domino to fall and the rest followed in lockstep – except for one country: India.
“Big bull” and emerging market mischief
It was my first visit to India. And while the country did fall, it wasn’t the Asian contagion that brought it down.
Instead, it was the shenanigans of Hershad Mehta, fondly known as the “Big Bull” in reference to his bullish calls on the Bombay Stock Exchange. However, little did anyone know that the Big Bull was manipulating the thinly-traded market with money borrowed from none other than the Bank of India.
It wasn’t my first taste of emerging market mischief.
A couple of years prior, I was in Chengdu, the capital city of China’s Sichuan province. Some local city commissioners had concocted a story that the city’s biggest steel mill was now privately run – and they had stock certificates and a stamp of approval from a “Big Eight” accounting firm in Hong Kong to prove it.
Turns out the company was real, but the firm’s ownership was still in the hands of the state. They got away with the ruse for a while. And fortunately, I was able to steer clear of the deal after an alcohol-fueled night (not on my part!) led the management team to confess to me what they were actually doing.
But today, things are very different in China and India…
Investment research inside the heart of India
On the last investment research trip that I led in India, our group was fortunate enough to meet with some of the top Indian companies – ICICI Bank, Infosys, Zee TV and many more.
The difference in tone was marked. It wasn’t the same “guess who’s telling the truth” type of mission as earlier ones. We also met with several local business people, municipalities and even some higher-level governmental types. It was these guys who let us in on the real unknown deals, the private deals and the government’s plans in regard to the country’s infrastructure.
In short, it was a much clearer, more honest insider look at the direction of business and government. For example, it was through these contacts that we learned about Larson and Tubro – major players in the infrastructure area – and that Bangalore was being left behind, due to its poor infrastructure.
And now it’s time for “India: The 2010 Edition”…
Why India is a better emerging market bet than China
In October, I’ll be leading another investment research trip to India – and the timing couldn’t be better.
Right now, the Indian market is hotter than a summer’s day in Cochin.
During the crash of 2008/2009, it fell the least. And it’s now recovering the fastest, outperforming just about every other emerging market in the process.
Why? Because India isn’t your run-of-the-mill emerging market…
- Home-grown demand: While India will experience crashes, its strength is that its economy isn’t export-driven. Rather, it’s an insulated market, which thrives on local demand, not the whims of the international markets or currency flows.
- Population: Unlike China, India doesn’t have a population on the verge of anarchy if the government stops spending its reserves just to create make-do work. In addition, the country’s middle class is larger than the entire population of the United States, which allows it to generate a tremendous amount of internal economic activity.
- Business protection: India’s companies tend to thrive with less threat of competition from abroad, thanks to the country’s protective business policies.
Going forward, if there’s one true emerging opportunity with less true risk than other emerging markets, India would have to be at the top of the list.
Question is: What’s the best way to invest in India?
Get your boots on the ground in India
One route is to buy shares of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as the PowerShares India (NYSE: PIN, Stock Forum) or WisdomTree India Earnings (NYSE: EPI, Stock Forum).
Another way is to buy individual Indian companies. However, they’re quite impenetrable. Sure, you have ADRs that trade on the NYSE. But they’re not the kind of small-cap opportunities that you see on the ground.
Disclosure: The author does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned.