Technically speaking, the shares of Agrium Inc. (TSX: T.AGU, Stock Forum) have been on fire during the past month, advancing close to 40% since skimming the $48 level in early July. In fact, the equity has outpaced the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by roughly 10% during the past 20 sessions. However, any additional upward momentum could be stifled in the overhead $70-$72 neighborhood, which has contained AGU's rally attempts in 2010.
In light of the stock’s progress on the charts of late, the options crowd has started to board AGU's bullish bandwagon. During the past 10 sessions on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), speculators have bought to open more than four calls for every put on the stock, as indicated by AGU's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.16. What's more, this ratio ranks in the 82nd annual percentile, implying that traders are initiating bullish bets over bearish at a much faster-than-usual pace.
Further evidence that AGU calls have grown more popular than their bearishly biased rivals is the equity’s Schaeffer’s put/call open interest ratio (SOIR), which measures options slated to expire within three months. Since tagging a pessimistic peak above 1.50 in mid-July, the security’s SOIR has depleted to its current perch of 0.91, implying that near-term calls now outnumber puts. Furthermore, this ratio stands higher than only 60% of all others taken during the past year, suggesting that short-term speculators have grown more complacent toward the agricultural issue during the past month.
Elsewhere on the Street, though, the brokerage bunch has already boarded AGU’s bullish bandwagon. According to Zacks, the stock harbors an impressive 11 “strong buys” and five “buy” ratings, compared to just four lukewarm “holds” and nary a “sell” to be found. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters calculates the average 12-month price target on the security at $74.47 – a premium of 11% to AGU’s closing price of $67.17 on Monday.
In conclusion, AGU’s recent run higher has fueled its Relative Strength Index (RSI) to a reading of 71 – in overbought territory – meaning the pool of potential buyers could be dissipating. Should the equity surrender some of its recent gains, or run into resistance in the round-number $70 region, an unwinding of optimism in the options arena or a wave of negative analyst attention could spark added selling pressure on the stock. SchaeffersResearch.com