SAN FRANCISCO -- I just talked to the folks at
Gran Colombia Gold (
TSX:T.GCM,
Stock Forum). I am
as upset as anyone that one of our
TCR 8 faces as much as 50 percent share dilution if a $7 million to $15 million equity financing takes place. The prospectus was filed
Nov. 19.
I own the shares. They are at their all-time low, a rat's hair above $1 Canadian.
Most Colombia prospectors and producers are the hardest hit of any jurisdiction in the nearly three-year global dumping of metals equities.
GCM, as I am reminded frequently, has evaporated about 80 percent of its market value since the
MedoroResources merger a few years ago.
No excuses, but so have others down there. Please look at
Continental Gold (
TSX:T.CNL,
Stock Forum) from peak to decline. Pick just about any of the Colombia prospectors. I do not need to include the charts:
Bellhaven (
TSX:V.BHV,
Stock Forum),
Colombian Mines (
TSX:V.CMJ,
Stock Forum), our own ravaged
Solvista Gold (
TSX:V.SVV,
Stock Forum), another of the
TCR 8.
I still own shares in these wealth destructors, having committed the error of purchasing a few of them early (2008, 2009, when Colombia was still cheap and I first started returning to Medellin, Bogota and environs), then holding on as most of them rose 5x, some even more. Then me: watching as all were driven into the ground.
The reasons: a lousy democratically elected national government, increased illegal mining, safety concerns, landscape and environmental concerns, regional bureaucracy, a kidnapping or two ... and in the good times, a rush of syndicators into the country.
Oh yes, and piss-poor managing on the part of some of 'em.
The only Colombia prospector-producer I follow on behalf of our
TCR audience, and own, that is outpacing the pack is
Atico Mining (
TSX:V.ATY,
Stock Forum). Atico today (Monday) consummated its purchase of El Roble, the gold-copper underground mine and surrounding VMS property. Bravo.
That is the exception. Even Atico is down to 60 cents or so from $1 a share.
Many of
Los Colombianos have lost 60 percent to 90 percent of their peak value (pre-March 2011) in a nation I still consider one of the richest regions anywhere for gold of all styles: porphyry, VMS (volcanic), epithermal, high-grade veined.
Colombia, and especially Gran Colombia Gold, right now is a laughing stock for metals investors, if they are not crying that is.
I say that having friends at Gran Colombia in Bogota, in Segovia and in Toronto. I say it respecting some of its social-healing work and community efforts at Segovia in deepest
bandito region of Antioquia. I say it holding in regard the day-to-day workers in the front office and in the field.
Here is an
unedited blast from a member of our
TCR family to me. It is from someone who is a GCM shareholder and also once was connected to the company:
"Incompetent and dysfunctional management team, I'm afraid... simply no other word for it. In early 2011 before the merger, the market cap for Medoro and GCM exceeded $USD 600 million. The latest market cap is $USD 17 million."
He continues, "The completion of the
Pampa Verde (at Segovia) project has already slipped from the third to the fourth quarter of next year and guidance for this year has slipped from 110,000 ounces to somewhere around 105,000 ounces, making it close to the 2012 production despite the fact that they have the Maria Dama plant operating at higher capacity for the whole year whereas last year it only had the higher capacity for the past 7 months."
I have been through the
blow-by-blow of GCM's gold-denominated and silver-denominated notes, its checkered past, its struggles to lower operating costs at Segovia, and its inability to dispatch gnarly
El Marmato to a bidder, any bidder ... or other projects for that matter (
Zancudo, for one, Mazamoras for another) instead of raising cheap equity cash that likely will put the common shareholder down not just 80 percent from the peak, but as much as 95 percent.
Merely
Internet-search GCM | Calandra | Segovia.
To see the articles, that is.
GMP Securities of Toronto is doing the (short-form) financing at what will be an absurd price determined by the investing audience for mega-speculative gold and silver producers. Management, led by Executive Chairman
Serafino Iacono's group, indicates it shall put in $5 million, maybe more.
I will NOT participate. I rarely do in the case of financings, as my audience does not have a chance to get in. In this case, I imagine
anyone can get a piece of the new stock.
I was hoping instead of this desperate cash-dash, that Gran Colombia Gold shareholders instead might see the top executives and shareholders, who include Frank Holmes's
U.S. GlobalInvestors (
NYSE:GROW,
Stock Forum) in Texas, attempt to
purchase shares in the open market.
Mr. Iacono, the chairman, told me in late September: "We are reducing cost, we are on time and under cost on plant and have no problems with any defaults.
Blue Pacific in the next 30 days will invest 5 million dollars in the company shares and we are more than happy with our company but not happy with price of shares but see an opportunity to increasing our holdings."
Blue Pacific is the investment group for Mr. Iacono.
Now, I took that direct quotation to be that execs and insiders would purchase $5 million worth of stock in the open market. The GCM managers, starting with Mr. Iacono, have done that in the past at far higher prices.
I write this knowing I probably will be seen as naive when it comes to the stock market, especially the Canada market for dumpster metals equities. I know that an
open-market purchasing approach does nothing in the way of raising money for Gran Colombia, which right now is operating with what I believe is negative working capital. (If I am mistaken, I am willing to stand corrected.)
I know there are rules for large shareholders listed on the Toronto big board. For instance: the private agreement exemption under
Multilateral Instrument 62-104 - Take-Over Bids and Issuer Bids. See documents.
These rules, reviewed constantly up there, are designed to protect shareholders who do NOT own, say 5 percent or 10 percent or 20 percent of a single company's shares.
The bidder exemption was used by a large fund manager holder of
Lynden Energy (
TSX:V.LVL,
Stock Forum), which I own. The fund manager is in Houston and as a large shareholder, with warrants, can increase its ownership beyond a certain level only by making a small handful of offers to select common shareholders.
It did, at market price. Bravo. The stock is doing quite well, thank you.
In the case of GCM, I am sure there are restrictions on the group that Mr. Iacono and his partners control -- the Blue Pacific one with stakes in several companies, including GCM, and a Colombia coal company and a well-known Colombia oil and gas producer,
Pacific Rubiales.
The company in my chat today maintains that open-market buying is not practical for a company that requires working capital to proceed to complete its improvements at the Segovia mills and mines. Also, the company tells me that its denominated silver and gold notes restrict its ability to borrow cash (which I am not recommending).
Crux of tirade: The current plan to issue millions more shares and warrants does nothing for me and nothing for our TCR audience.
Not a thing.
As I said, there are other options: a tender for a percentage of the shares in a good faith effort?
I am not a banker. (Once again, sure, pile it on: I am naive, after all these years of covering markets and companies?)
I also am an investor who still loves Colombia and sees the promise of one of the highest grade underground networks of gold-bearing and silver-bearing veins in the world: Segovia and surrounding area.
End of THIS TIRADE. Not end of story, of course.
At the top end, let's start by getting the current president down there,
Juan Manuel Santos, OUT OF OFFICE.
Drilling down, pun intended: if GCM and its lead banker proceed with this equity financing, I likely
never shall get a positive return on my investment. Even worse, those who are in this with
TCR will not.
Please, just sell
El Marmato to anyone. Sell it all. Keep Segovia (former El Frontino Mine). Keep cutting costs. Finish the new mill. Wait out the stock market.
Your disaffected,
Thom Calandra
@thomcalandra
melt-ups@thomcalandra.com