Big North Graphite [TSX:V.NRT, Stock Forum] is a highly speculative small-cap company that is not suitable for all investors. Proper due diligence, including consulting with a financial adviser, should be done before investing in any small-cap company. NOTE: The analysis and forecasts I offer are entirely my own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the beliefs of management. I have no formal or informal business relationship with the company, except that I am a shareholder.
Last August, I recommended investors take a close look at
Big North Graphite. Here’s
the article I wrote, which has generated a large number of page views. At the time, the stock was trading at C$0.07. On January 3, 2014 Big North reached an intraday high of C$0.10. As I write this on January 9th, shares are trading hands at C$0.075. Despite very significant developments that greatly de-risk the company, shares are virtually unchanged from last summer.
I continue to love Big North as the story keeps getting better! CEO Spiro Kletas has been very busy since my last piece in which I described how Big North is the first to market in North America with actual sales of graphite. The company has now announced four months in a row of amorphous graphite sales (through November) and should pass a cumulative 1,000 tonnes relatively soon. Importantly, the company now has over 500 tonnes of graphite stockpiled.
Graphite Sector Getting a lot of Attention Recently
Recently, two companies announced off-take agreements that have sent their share prices soaring. Quebec hopeful
Focus Graphite (
TSX:V.FMS,
Stock Forum) announced a deal on December 19th to supply a, “Chinese industrial conglomerate.” Focus Media’s stock price more than doubled within days. On December 23rd, Australian-listed
Kibaran Resources signed an off-take agreement with a, “major European graphite trader.” Kibaran’s stock price doubled as well. Big North has been working on increasing sales and could be the next company to announce an off-take deal for amorphous graphite in Mexico and/or the U.S., albeit on a smaller scale.
Transformational Acquisition De-Risks Big North and Enhances Upside Potential
In December, Big North announced the signing of a LOI for a game-changing
acquisition. Big North plans to acquire Grafito de Mexico, the registered and beneficial owner of the El Tejon property, a past producing flake graphite mine. The El Tejon property is located in the state of Oaxaca and includes a flake graphite mine and mill. This property is the only flake graphite mine to have produced in Mexico. The mine and mill were built in 1980 by the Government of Mexico. In 1989, a second processing line was installed to increase the capacity to approximately 4,400 tonnes per year of finished graphite. The mine was operated by the Government until 1988 and then run privately until 2002, only closing due to low graphite prices. Historically, the mine produced approximately 20% large flake and 80% medium and fine flake graphite.
This news is very substantial for a number of reasons. It diversifies the company from only being an amorphous player and expands the universe of potential customers. Flake graphite production would greatly increase the company’s overall margins. As a past producing mine, a lot of infrastructure is already in place and the operating flow sheet is established. The risk of restarting El Tejon is far less than the dozens of green field projects around the world, many of which are in inhospitable countries. Therefore, Big North could become a mid-sized producer of a suite of graphite products in Mexico to sell in North America. Best of all, the company could achieve mid-tier status within just 2 years at a very low relative capital cost.
Back of the Envelope Valuation Exercise…
As a valuation exercise, I take a stab at the growing amorphous segment and then consider the potential value of the flake graphite operations. I assume that the margins on amorphous sales are about $125/tonne, (
just my estimate based on a sales price probably close to $300/tonne). From a few hundred tonnes per month, I believe there’s demand for sales to grow to 500-1,000 tonnes per month by the end of 2014. By 2015, I assume the company could sell 12,000 tonnes x a $125/tonne = $1.5 million of profit. And by 2016, I assume sales grow by 50% to 18,000 tonnes and the margin grows to $175/tonne due to a combination of economies of scale, further on-site processing of the graphite (to upgrade quality) and cutting out the middleman in the sales cycle. Therefore, by 2016 Big North could be generating (
my opinion only) annual profit of 18,000 tonnes x $175/tonne = $3 million.
Moving on to the prospective flake graphite acquisition, large flake is currently selling for close to $1,500/tonne and fines at just under $1,000/tonne. Based on the historical mix of 80% medium / fine and 20% large flake, that’s a weighted average price of $1,260/tonne. Assuming a 50% margin ($630/tonne) and 4,000 tonnes of finished product in 2016 (vs. 4,400 tonnes of existing mill capacity), that would yield profits of 4,000 x $630/tonne = $2.5 million. From 2017 on I expect that the company would be able to expand significantly above 4,000 tonnes by upgrading the mill. Assuming a moderate scale operation of 8,000 tonnes, Big North could be looking at $5 million of profit per year.
Combined, the two segments could be producing annual profits of $8 million within 3-4 years. Ascribing a 5x multiple to that high-margin earnings stream would value the company at $40 million. Big North has 55 million shares outstanding and 82 million fully-diluted. The options/warrants are out of the money. The company has no debt. Assuming that the company issues new shares and exercises options/warrants to end up with 100 million shares, the valuation would be C$0.40 per share, (
assumes C$ parity with USD$) which would be a 5-BAGGER. If the company were to issue 50 million new shares and exercise all existing options/warrants the share count would be 132 million and the per share valuation C$0.30.
A Lot Can Go Wrong, But Overall Risk Appears Low Compared to Peer Greenfield Projects
Make no mistake, I fully recognize that a lot can go wrong on the way to a $40 million valuation. And, I fully recognize that the $40 million figure is based on somewhat arbitrary inputs. However, I’m comforted by the fact that my assumptions are not that aggressive AND that both of Big North’s segments are, or would be, relatively simple compared to greenfield projects in high-risk countries, locations without infrastructure or severe climates where year-round production is impossible. I’m heartened by the fact that I’m only forced to forecast 2-3 years, not 5-10 years as is the case with many other companies. Big North will have very competitive transportation advantages in Mexico and the U.S. and be able to offer security of supply and just-in-time deliveries.
In conjunction with (potentially) acquiring this highly prospectively flake graphite asset, Big North is doing something incredibly smart…they just
appointed to the Board the man who knows more about El Tejon than anyone on the planet! I could go on and on about Cesar J. Guajardo’s credentials, (
please click on link) but suffice it to say that he has amazing experience in Mexico, in graphite and with El Tejon specifically. His connections and understanding of the project will substantially improve the chances of success.
Finally, let me reiterate that Big North’s projects should not be capital intensive. Many aspiring graphite producers facing the daunting task of raising hundreds of millions are scrambling to cut corners to bring capital costs down. Big North’s total capital raising requirements over the next few years should be comparatively small. A mixture of debt, equipment financing and forward sales (perhaps through off-take agreements) could mitigate the need for equity dilution. Positive cash flow from the sale of amorphous graphite could also help offset the capital costs of restarting El Tejon.
Conclusion
It’s a new year, investor risk appetites are refreshed. The graphite sector has seen some big winners in just the past few months. In addition to Focus and Kibaran,
Mason Graphite (
TSX:V.LLG,
Stock Forum) and
Flinders Resources (
TSX:V.FDR,
Stock Forum) have made very meaningful moves higher.
At a current market cap of just C$3.5 million, Big North has ample room to run. Notice the huge uptick in trading volume of late. I’m told that A LOT of the shares are in friendly hands, the hands of investors, not day traders, with more moving in that direction daily. Big North is poised to become a profitable mid-tier producer into an underserved market faster and at far less cost than almost anyone else. I strongly believe that Big North is a company with blue-sky potential and near-term catalysts.