The internet has revolutionized commerce, communication and how humans live in almost every way imaginable. It provides instant information and access in a world where patience and time are limited commodities.
While some industries have been quick to utilize the power of the internet, others have perilously lagged behind. The internet forced rental movie outlets, such as Blockbuster, to close its doors forever. Online discount brokerage trading platforms gave self-directed investors the power to manage billions, if not trillions, of their own money. This has transformed the brokerage industry. Almost every stockbroker who relied on trading commissions to make a living is now retired or in a different vocation.
Blockbuster's failure to embrace the internet resulted in its brick-and-mortar business collapse
The internet turned the music industry on its head with the rise of illegal downloads through platforms such as Napster. This paved the way for Apple's iTunes and Spotify, which made buying music online legal, easy and more convenient than ever. (CDs are virtually obsolete now)
Now, with regulations changing, the internet is taking a growing slice of the legal gambling pie away from casinos. From the amount wagered to the psychology of risk, new and innovative online platforms are transforming the way people bet and gamble.
With more than 100 million poker players worldwide (according to World Poker Tour) the rise of online poker has been incredible over the last decade.
For the online gambler, the internet provides anonymity in an ever-increasing digital age. Losing a few hundred bucks online in the comfort of your home is more appealing to some than losing it in front of a crowd. This desire to stay anonymous is driving online gaming, much in the way it is driving online dating. Going to the bar and betting via your smartphone while you watch the game as opposed to sitting in a casino is also appealing to many. And, naturally, it requires less effort and no physical transfer of cash (read about the impacts of cashless transactions from our recent Volume
Death of QE, Birth of Cashless Society).
Online Gaming & Gambling Market prepares to take bite out of Land-Based Operators
In any market, there is always resistance to change, especially when that change is being driven by new industry players. Gaming and online gambling have come up against serious resistance in many states. The controversial
Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 was a U.S. legislation that regulated online gambling.
In 2011, the FBI shut down three of the world's largest online poker sites to US residents. Federal prosecutors accused the three founders of the gambling sites with illegal gambling, bank fraud and money laundering, according to the Financial Times.
The law enforcement crackdown stemmed from many social issues, but was rooted in the fact that this new, unregulated industry was difficult to tax.
Tax Revenue: the ace up online gambling's sleeve
Governments are after one thing when it comes to dinosaur sized industries such as online gambling: tax revenue.
In December of 2011, following the
Great Recession, the U.S. Justice Department loosened its ban on internet gambling and lottery sales. This opened the door for individual states to begin ushering in a new era of legal online gaming and gambling.
Nevada was the first US state to adopt a regulated online poker industry after Ultimate Poker launched in April 2013. By November of 2013, Nevada was joined by Delaware and New Jersey.
These three states have passed pro-gaming laws that range from allowing online poker, to implementing near full-fledged legal US online gambling sites.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie famously forecasted $1 billion in revenue and $180 million in taxes by the end of year one.
This potential new revenue source likely has other governors around the country interested...
Key note: online gaming could become very similar to the marijuana industry. As acceptance continues to rise and cash-strapped governments look to raise desperately needed revenue, more and more states may embrace online gaming and gambling.
Online Gambling provides Cost Advantage
Similar to virtually every commercial industry, it's just flat out cheaper for
gambling companies to host a business online as opposed to in a casino. Without having to run a 50,000 square foot air conditioned casino it's easy to understand the potential cost savings and why the economics of online casinos are so appealing. And for the gamblers, they don't have to worry about the cost of flying or driving to the casino, staying at the hotel etc. Gamblers of the future will be able to bet from the palm of their hand.
Online gaming, if more widely adopted and regulated, poses a serious threat to traditional brick-and-mortar casinos
The World's Most Advanced Online Gambling Market: Europe
When evaluating any market it is important to review where adoption has been successful. In 2013, the European market was the largest for online gaming or gambling in the world. However, much like the way Macau passed Las Vegas as the epicentre of land-based or traditional gambling a few years ago, other online gambling markets will surely surpass Europe in the years ahead - Asia, led by China, being the obvious choice (In China, only the government - with the rare partnership exception - is allowed to host online gambling sites).
China Law Blog reported:
"Media reports state that online gambling in China soared during the recent World Cup. Interest was so intense that gambling income in Macao significantly declined, causing a major blow to the bottom line of major casinos that normally rely on a steady flow of high and low rollers from mainland China."
source:
https://www.chinalawblog.com/2014/10/china-online-gambling-illegal-but-ev...
Back to Europe...
According to the European Gaming & Betting Association,
"of the €26.6 billion of gross win (stakes minus winnings) generated globally [online] in 2013, 47.4% was attributable to the European market."
This global dominance is due to two things:
1. Internet penetration in Europe is among the highest in the world.
2. The US and China have shut down numerous online gaming markets and made it illegal for online providers in many jurisdictions (but we expect that to change in the years ahead).
The European Gaming & Betting Association has predicted that Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR - stakes minus winnings) is expected to rise from €10.9 billion in 2013 to €13.27 billion in 2015 (2-year increase of roughly 22%).
While that expected increase is significant, there is an underlying story that could result in an explosion of online gaming globally. The European online gaming sector, for example, accounted for around 13.27% of the total EU28 gaming market in 2013, according to the EGBA. That's a minuscule amount compared to other industries that have shifted to online commerce.
Independent forecasts expect online gaming's market share to rise to 14.58% in 2015. However, revenue in the offline market is expected to rise from €71.46 billion in 2013 to €73.08 billion in 2015 - meaning that its share of the total gambling market will still be a very large 85.42%, according to EGBA.
This leaves a ton of room for growth in the online gaming industry.
And, if it is anything like the movie, TV, music and publishing industries, which we believe it is, online gambling can realistically capture near a third of worldwide betting.
Europe's market has the most online penetration in the world and its online gaming sector accounted for only 13.2% of industry activity in 2013. There is much more room to grow... much, much more.
If gaming and gambling follow other industries that dipped their toes into the online world before becoming fully submerged in the blink of an eye, adoption rates could become explosive in the next year or two. Remember, online gambling has only recently come out of the shadows of countries like Costa Rica and Malta and into places such as London and New Jersey. This is an industry poised for growth.
In 2013, Juniper Research estimated that betting on mobile devices alone will be a $100 billion worldwide industry by 2017.
Online Mobile Gambling is expected to Rise Dramatically
Reportlinker.com stated that,
"Mobile gambling is expected to grow at double-digit rates and to reach over 40% of the total online gambling market by 2018, as the number of mobile gambling users increases by a hundred million."
source:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-online-gambling--betting-...
Online Gaming & Gambling is Coming to America...
In December of 2011, following the
Great Recession, the U.S. Justice Department tweaked its ban on internet gambling and lottery sales (the law only applies to sports betting now). Since the change, numerous states have either legalized online gambling or entered the process to do so.
New Jersey: a case study
Online gaming became legal on November 26th, 2013 in New Jersey. It generated $8.3 million in revenue in little over 30 days.
Wells Fargo Securities reported that,
"...in the near term, we believe the New Jersey online market could generate between $650 million and $850 million."
source:
https://www.northjersey.com/news/studies-see-far-less-revenue-from-online...
Third party forecasters believe the U.S. is poised to earn gross winnings of over $7.4 billion by 2017, representing around 30% of the global online gaming market with continuous growth expected annually.
"Currently there are an estimated 1,700 offshore sites, which handle bets worth more than $4 billion a year."
source:
https://www.trefis.com/stock/wynn/articles/207175/wynn-partners-with-888-...
"PwC" or the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, released a report titled
Global gaming outlook: The casino and online gaming market to 2015.
The report stated
"With governments now facing severe fiscal constraints and eager to replenish their coffers, their attention has been caught by the potential of legalized and licensed online gaming services as a valuable source of tax revenues."
source:
https://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/entertainment-media/publications/gaming-outl...
PWC's view,
"remains that the currently dominant approach of in-country or in-state regulation and licensing of online gaming will be steadily eroded during the next five years."
source:
https://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/entertainment-media/publications/gaming-outl...
PwC released a video detailing the advantages to online gaming as opposed to traditional land-based gambling activity.
click image above to watch video
Conclusion
The global gambling industry expanded to well over $400 billion in 2013. A MarketLine report stated it is expected to total nearly $641 billion by the end of 2017.
source:
https://www.reportlinker.com/p0138969-summary/Casinos-Gaming-Global-Indus...
What's so stunning about these numbers is that
they only include the legally recorded gambling. Much like marijuana reform, legalization could prompt regular gamblers to place and make bets in a legitimate setting, resulting in a tremendous boost to recorded betting activity and tax revenue. No more bookies - just like the government hopes to eliminate neighborhood grow operations with progressive marijuana laws.
Government online gambling laws and regulatory policies have kept the roof from blowing off this explosive market... for now.
As entitlement programs and lacklustre economies continue to wreak havoc on balance sheets, more governors, following Chris Christie's footsteps, will likely move to pass laws that support online gambling.
All the best with your investments,
PINNACLEDIGEST.COM