The Fed’s Powell testimony on the economy before Congress pushed stock prices higher last week. And it was worth paying attention to that news. But will the next set of economic data confirm the bullish outlook? Investors will have to focus on Wednesday’s and Friday’s releases. Let’s take a look at the details.
The week behind
The second week of November was bearish for the
U.S. dollar, and the price of gold didn’t recover its recent losses. On the other hand, stocks have extended their over 10-year-long bull market. The economic data releases were pretty much mixed last week, but investors came to a conclusion that the
monetary policy will continue to favor risk assets.
A week ago we described the
Fed’s Powell Testimony before Congress as the most important event of the coming week. And probably it was, as
Jerome Powell painted a very optimistic picture of the U.S. economy again.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment number release set the bullish tone for the EUR/USD trading in the middle of the week and the Australian dollar sold off following Wednesday’s important economic data releases.
The week ahead
What about the coming week? Wednesday’s Fed Minutes will be the most important economic release this week. We will also have a very busy Friday in Europe and in the U.S. There will also be some data releases on Tuesday and on Thursday. Outside of U.S., it’s worth to mention economic data releases from Australia and Canada. Let’s take a look at key highlights:
- On Wednesday we will get the FOMC Meeting Minutes release. Will it confirm last week’s Powell’s words?
- Friday will be data-heavy in Europe and in the U.S. The markets will react to PMI numbers and the ECB’s Lagarde speech.
- On Tuesday we will get the U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts data, and on Thursday the Philadelphia Fed number and the Existing Home Sales will be released.
- The oil inventories release on Wednesday will be the most important piece of data the oil traders will get in the coming week.
You will find this week’s the key news releases below (EST time zone). For your convenience, we broken them down per market to which they are particularly important, so that you know what to pay extra attention to, if you have or plan to have positions in one of them. Moreover, we put the particularly important news in bold. This kind of news is what is more likely to trigger volatile movements. The news that are not in bold usually don’t result in bigger intraday moves, so unless one is engaging in a particularly active form of
day trading, it might be best to focus on the news that we put in bold. Of course, you are free to use the below indications as you see fit. As far as we are concerned, we are usually not engaging in any day trading during days with “bold” events on a given market. However, in case of more medium-term trades, we usually choose to be aware of the increased intraday volatility, but not change the currently opened position.
Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks
Monday, November 18
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, November 19
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
- 9:00 a.m. U.S. - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
- 8:30 p.m. China - PBOC Interest Rate
Wednesday, November 20
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Common CPI y/y, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 21
- 7:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
- 8:40 a.m. Canada - BOC Governor Poloz Speech
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales
Friday, November 22
- 3:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
- 9:45 a.m. U.S. - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Crude Oil
Monday, November 18
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, November 19
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
- 9:00 a.m. U.S. - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
- 8:30 p.m. China - PBOC Interest Rate
Wednesday, November 20
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Common CPI y/y, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y
- 10:30 a.m. U.S. - Crude Oil Inventories
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 21
- 7:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
- 8:40 a.m. Canada - BOC Governor Poloz Speech
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales
Friday, November 22
- 3:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
- 9:45 a.m. U.S. - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Stock Markets
Monday, November 18
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - NAHB Housing Market Index
Tuesday, November 19
- 6:00 a.m. U.K. - CBI Industrial Order Expectations
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
- 9:00 a.m. U.S. - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
- 8:30 p.m. China - PBOC Interest Rate
Wednesday, November 20
- 10:30 a.m. U.S. - Crude Oil Inventories
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 21
- 7:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
- 10:00 a.m. Eurozone - Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales
- 7:30 p.m. Japan - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Friday, November 22
- 2:00 a.m. Eurozone - German Final GDP q/q
- 3:15 a.m. Eurozone - French Flash Services PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 3:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
- 4:00 a.m. Eurozone - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
- 8:00 a.m. Eurozone - German Buba President Weidmann Speech
- 9:45 a.m. U.S. - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
EUR/USD
Monday, November 18
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - NAHB Housing Market Index
Tuesday, November 19
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
- 9:00 a.m. U.S. - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
- 8:30 p.m. China - PBOC Interest Rate
Wednesday, November 20
- 2:00 a.m. Eurozone - German PPI m/m
- 4:00 a.m. Eurozone - ECB Financial Stability Review
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 21
- 7:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
- 10:00 a.m. Eurozone - Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales
Friday, November 22
- 2:00 a.m. Eurozone - German Final GDP q/q
- 3:15 a.m. Eurozone - French Flash Services PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 3:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
- 4:00 a.m. Eurozone - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
- 8:00 a.m. Eurozone - German Buba President Weidmann Speech
- 9:45 a.m. U.S. - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD/JPY
Tuesday, November 19
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
- 9:00 a.m. U.S. - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
- 6:50 p.m. Japan - Trade Balance
- 8:30 p.m. China - PBOC Interest Rate
Wednesday, November 20
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 11:30 p.m. Japan - All Industries Activity m/m
Thursday, November 21
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales
- 6:30 p.m. Japan - National Core CPI y/y
- 7:30 p.m. Japan - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Friday, November 22
3:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
9:45 a.m. U.S. -
Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
10:00 a.m. U.S. - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
GBP/USD
Tuesday, November 19
- 6:00 a.m. U.K. - CBI Industrial Order Expectations
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
- 9:00 a.m. U.S. - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
- 8:30 p.m. China - PBOC Interest Rate
Wednesday, November 20
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 21
- 4:30 a.m. U.K. - Public Sector Net Borrowing
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales
Friday, November 22
- 3:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
- 9:45 a.m. U.S. - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD/CAD
Monday, November 18
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - NAHB Housing Market Index
Tuesday, November 19
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Manufacturing Sales m/m
- 9:00 a.m. U.S. - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
- 8:30 p.m. China - PBOC Interest Rate
Wednesday, November 20
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Common CPI y/y, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y
- 10:30 a.m. U.S. - Crude Oil Inventories
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 21
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 8:40 a.m. Canada - BOC Governor Poloz Speech
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales
- 10:30 a.m. Canada - BOC Financial System Review
Friday, November 22
- 3:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
- 9:45 a.m. U.S. - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
AUD/USD
Monday, November 18
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - NAHB Housing Market Index
- 5:00 p.m. Australia - RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, November 19
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
- 9:00 a.m. U.S. - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
- 6:30 p.m. Australia - MI Leading Index m/m
- 8:30 p.m. China - PBOC Interest Rate
Wednesday, November 20
- 10:30 a.m. U.S. - Crude Oil Inventories
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 21
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales
- 5:00 p.m. Australia - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Friday, November 22
- 3:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
- 9:45 a.m. U.S. - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
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Thank you.
Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care
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Disclaimer
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.