Brexit has become very likely due to result of the UK vote. But so what (gold- and currency-wise)? The uncertainty dropped significantly, and markets were able to sign a breath of relief (bearish for gold), but on the other hand Brexit itself increases the geopolitical turmoil (bullish for gold). Gold didn’t react decisively in the short run overall, but the European currencies: the
euro, and the
pound rallied. In the first part of today’s analysis, we’ll focus on what happened in the euro and how the
forex situation fits the other
gold price predictions.
Let’s start with the long-term chart featuring gold price in terms of the euro.
Gold in the Eyes of the Europeans
The most important thing about gold’s performance is it’s 2019 attempt to break above the 2011 highs. It succeeded but only for a short while. The breakout was invalidated almost instantly as it was clear that gold is not able to withstand the selling pressure. Invalidations of breakouts tend to be very bearish developments and this time was no exception. And just like that – gold declined.
It’s been a few months since gold topped and gold – looking from the long-term perspective - is now only a little lower. Some may say that it’s a proof that gold is just correcting after a big rally and that another big upswing is just around the corner. But that’s not what the chart facts support. The fact is that gold failed to break above the previous high, which is bearish. Looking at the short-term performance, it might be both: correction or the early part of the decline, but so far nothing happened that would justify the bullish interpretation.
In particular, please note that back in 2012, when gold also tried to break above the previous high (and it actually succeeded in terms of the monthly highs), and failed, it also declined at a relatively slow pace initially. That didn’t prevent gold from declining very rapidly in the following months.
This means that if you’re using euro for your day-to-day transactions (for instance, because you live in the Western Europe), then you shouldn’t count on the continuation in gold’s rally in the following months. In fact, something exactly the opposite could take place.
If you’re using U.S. dollars for your day-to-day purchases, the above is also very important to you. In this case, the above chart implies that the value of gold is likely to decline relative to what the
EUR/USD currency pair will be doing.
And the EUR/USD pair…
The Euro and the Dollar
The Euro Index – proxy for the above – is at its medium-term resistance. Being at an important resistance without breaking above it means that the price is likely to move down. That’s how
resistances work.
Moreover, please note that the entire September – today decline is one big prolonged shoulder of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern (the early-2019 rally being the head). This means that once the Euro breaks significantly lower (perhaps triggered by one of the
market news scheduled for this week) – below the previous 2019 lows, it’s likely to fall particularly hard. The size of the decline that follows the breakdown below the head-and-shoulders pattern is likely to be similar to the size of the head, which in this case means a move below the 2017 low. Of course, this would have major repercussions for many other markets, including gold.
If the euro declines that significantly, breaking below its 2017 low, and at the same time – based on the previous chart – gold declines more than the euro, gold would likely truly plunge in terms of the USD. Of course that’s not the only factor that points to this outcome, but it’s something that confirms
other, even more important factors.
The full version of this analysis isn’t just about gold in euro terms though. There, we cover the immediate action in gold, silver and the miners in light of the USD Index twists and turns. Plus, we feature a little known sign that gold’s low volume just flashed, and show you its reliability. And of course, you’ll also find there the key factors at play and the targets of our promising short position. We encourage you to join our subscribers and reap the rewards.
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Thank you.
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care
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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.