Stocks and oil were crashing and the price of gold was rallying last week. The financial markets went full risk-off following corona virus scare. This week we will have some quite important releases including Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs report, but will the economic data move markets more than virus news? Let’s take a look at the details.
The week behind
Last week’s economic data releases have been overshadowed by the ongoing
corona virus crisis. The
gold price rallied and the stock market basically crashed. And series of economic data releases in the U.S. didn’t help much. Tuesday’s
CB Consumer Confidence was slightly worse than expected, However, in the following days the data releases were actually better than expected or in line with expectations. Overall, financial markets went full risk-off last week and the most important news was about COVID-19 virus and its potential global impact.
The week ahead
What about the coming week? The financial markets will await Friday’s U.S.
Nonfarm Payrolls number release. It is supposed to be the most important economic data release of the week. Then there will be ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing
PMI numbers releases on Monday and Wednesday. On Wednesday, we will also get the
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The currency traders will await this week’s economic data releases from Australia and Canada. Last but not least, the coming week will be very important for the oil market. Let’s take a look at key highlights:
- Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls along with Unemployment Rate will be the most important economic data releases this week.
- On Monday we will get the ISM Manufacturing PMI and on Wednesday the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released.
- Wednesday’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number will be the first look at U.S. jobs market condition in February, before the mentioned Friday’s monthly jobs data release.
- This week we will also have some quite important economic data releases from Australia and Canada.
- Oil traders will surely await Thursday’s-Friday’s OPEC Meetings.
You will find this week’s the key news releases below (EST time zone). For your convenience, we broken them down per market to which they are particularly important, so that you know what to pay extra attention to, if you have or plan to have positions in one of them. Moreover, we put the particularly important news in bold. This kind of news is what is more likely to trigger volatile movements. The news that are not in bold usually don’t result in bigger intraday moves, so unless one is engaging in a particularly active form of
day trading, it might be best to focus on the news that we put in bold. Of course, you are free to use the below indications as you see fit. As far as we are concerned, we are usually not engaging in any day trading during days with “bold” events on a given market. However, in case of more medium-term trades, we usually choose to be aware of the increased intraday volatility, but not change the currently opened position.
Our Market News Report consists of two different time-related perspectives. The investors’ perspective is only suitable for the long-term investments. The single economic data releases rarely cause major outlook changes. Hence, we will only see a handful of bold markings every week. On the other hand, the traders’ perspective is for traders and day-traders, because the assets’ prices are likely to react on a single piece of economic data. So, there will be a lot more bold markings on potentially market-moving news every week.
Investors’ Perspective
Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks
Monday, March 2
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 3
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, March 4
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday, March 6
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Crude Oil
Monday, March 2
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 3
- 4:30 p.m. U.S. - API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, March 4
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 10:30 a.m. U.S. - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, March 5
Friday, March 6
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
- All Day - OPEC-JMMC Meetings
Stock Markets
Monday, March 2
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 3
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, March 4
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday, March 6
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
EUR/USD
Monday, March 2
- 3:55 a.m. Eurozone - German Final Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 3
- 5:00 a.m. Eurozone - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Wednesday, March 4
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 1:30 p.m. Eurozone - German Buba President Weidmann Speech
Friday, March 6
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD/JPY
Friday, March 6
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
GBP/USD
Monday, March 2
- 4:30 a.m. U.K. - Final Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday, March 4
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thursday, March 5
- 12:00 p.m. U.K. - BOE Governor Carney Speech
Friday, March 6
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD/CAD
Monday, March 2
- 9:30 a.m. Canada - Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 3
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, March 4
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 a.m. Canada - Overnight Rate, BOC Rate Statement
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. - Beige Book
Thursday, March 5
- 12:45 p.m. Canada - BOC Governor Poloz Speech
Friday, March 6
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance
- 10:00 a.m. Canada - Ivey PMI
AUD/USD
Monday, March 2
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - Building Approvals m/m, Current Account
- 10:30 p.m. Australia - Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement
Tuesday, March 3
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - GDP q/q
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, March 4
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thursday, March 5
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - Retail Sales m/m
Friday, March 6
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Summing up, if you’re an investor and not a trader, you should pay extra attention to
Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs data release. The late-week OPEC Meetings will be important for the oil traders. Plus, there will be series of important economic news releases from Australia and Canada.
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Thank you.
Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care
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