The economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are ill prepared for the coming population boom.
War, terrorism, repression and poverty are all common features in much of today’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA). How are the region’s demographics changing in the next few decades? And what is the prognosis for improved living conditions?
It is difficult to look at the UN 2015 report and believe that the future will play out as outlined by the numbers. Even under the UN’s ‘medium variant’, which assumes a steady decline in total fertility ratios (TFR = average children per woman), the projected population growth would add significant stress on nations that are ill prepared to feed, educate and provide the needed jobs of the future.
Note in the first table that TFRs have been falling for decades and are expected to continue trending towards the 2.1 replacement level, or indeed lower in many cases. Except for Egypt, the North African countries are already near replacement and will dip lower by 2050. And all the Western Asia countries, with the notable exception of Iraq, will be near or below replacement by 2050.
(click to enlarge.)
Yet between now and 2050, the MENA population will still grow significantly. Every country will have more people by 2050 than today. Lebanon stands out as the sole exception but this is explained by the fact that its population recently ...
/www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/16/01/6139886/mena-economies-trouble-ahead alt='MENA' Economies: Trouble Ahead?>Full story available on Benzinga.com
More...