https://www.pv-tech.cn/editors_blog/2021hjt10gw_q4perc? (Google translated)
By the end of 2021, the scale of HJT's expansion will exceed 10GW, and the cost will be equal to PERC in Q4
With the advent of the "parity" era of photovoltaic power generation, the photovoltaic industry chain technology innovation is active. Based on the advantages of HJT heterojunction in photovoltaic conversion efficiency and unit power generation throughout the life cycle, more and more companies have Join this highly efficient technical track.
Recently, Tongwei, Canadian Solar, Huasheng, Akcome and other HJT projects have officially launched equipment bidding, and HJT bidding seems to have entered the 10GW level. With the full investment of many equipment and material manufacturers and the investment of new and old capital, the HJT heterojunction circuit is expected to usher in accelerated expansion this year and next.
According to incomplete statistics, the total planned production capacity of HJT at home and abroad has exceeded 60GW, and there are different layouts for new and old cell manufacturers in this field. Among them, the 5GW photovoltaic high-efficiency cell (heterojunction) plan announced by Mingyang Smart in May, the 1.2GW heterojunction technology investment in Diamond Glass, and the 500MW mass production line of Anhui Huasheng are particularly interesting. These new players are beginning to show Demonstrate strong confidence in HJT heterojunction products.
Due to the lighter historical burdens of new companies and the strong assists from equipment manufacturers such as Maiwei, Jinchen, Ideal, and Junshi, the entry speed is relatively fast. On the other hand, among traditional cell manufacturers, leading companies basically have technical reserves and related layouts, such as Tongwei Jintang’s 1GW mass production line, Canadian Solar’s 250MW production line plan, Dongfang Risheng’s pilot line, JA Solar, and Trina Solar. Light energy and others have also begun to shift from cautious attention to cautious exploration.
According to the statistics of Solarzoom's new energy think tank, as of now, the global HJT heterojunction cell production capacity is 5.26 GW, of which overseas production capacity is about 1.64 GW, domestic production capacity is 3.62 GW, and among the actual production capacity of 3.62 GW, only 1.75GW production capacity is produced. The rest of the production line is the production capacity of the pilot line. Although the number is not high, considering the rise of HJT, it is a pretty good result.
Anhui Huasheng New Energy is a relatively fast new company in the HJT field this year. Recently, Huasheng New Energy CTO Wang Wenjing said at the "2021 HJT Heterojunction Commercialization Mass Production Summit": "Heterojunction batteries will enter In the 10GW era, this cycle is very close. I estimate that by the end of the year, at least the order for construction this year should be about 6GW, and 10GW next year should be a high probability event."
Wang Wenjing said that before 2021, the scale of HJT production will be about 3GW, and the increase in production in 2021 will be almost 3GW. Huasheng's 2GW production capacity will also be realized next year. I estimate that the industry will increase the scale of 4GW on the basis of 6GW next year. It is possible, so the industry will have a total production capacity of at least 10GW in 2022.
The chairman of Maiwei shares, Zhou Jian, is more optimistic about the forecast of HJT's capacity expansion. He predicts that by the end of 2021, the scale of HJT's expansion will reach 10GW, or even 15GW.
It is understood that, since the introduction of microcrystals in the recent period, the laboratory efficiency has reached a new level, reaching 24.8%, and after optimization, it has reached 25.1%.
"With the introduction of microcrystalline, HJT and Topcon will open a relatively large gap. Under the microcrystalline technology, we have made rapid progress. Now the laboratory can reach an average efficiency of 25.3%. Starting from 2022, the entire HJT will enter the micro We plan to let everyone see the 25% mass production efficiency of Maiwei in the client at the beginning of 2022. By the end of 2022, the goal is to achieve 25.5% of HJT microcrystals and 26% by 2023." Zhou Jian said.
According to calculations by third-party organizations, if HJT’s new capacity from 2021-2024 is 10GW, 40GW, 60GW, and 100GW, and the average investment per GW is 450 million yuan, 400 million yuan, 350 million yuan, and 300 million yuan, then 2021- In 2024, the HJT equipment market will be 4.5 billion yuan, 16 billion yuan, 21 billion yuan, and 30 billion yuan, respectively. The cumulative equipment market scale in 4 years will exceed 70 billion yuan.
The technological dividends of monocrystalline silicon wafers and PERC batteries are still vivid, and how many people have been eye-catching. How can the next huge potential market not attract people to enter the market?
King Kong Glass, known for its production of fire-resistant glass, has recently become a new entrant to HJT heterojunction. The company has launched a 1.2GW heterojunction photovoltaic project. The production line is expected to reach production in 2023. It is not ruled out that further increase in production capacity on the existing basis possibility.
Yan Chunlai, general manager of King Kong Glass, is confident in the company’s layout. He said: “Where can we go to mass production if we want to achieve the goal of 25% conversion efficiency in early 2022? We can only go to our King Kong mass production, so I am more I have confidence. After mass production, we will set the conversion efficiency to 25%."
It is reported that Maiwei is the equipment supplier of King Kong Glass’s 1.2GW heterojunction battery assembly line. This is the first GW-level delivery of the entire line of Maiwei HJT equipment, and it is also the company’s HJT3.0 equipment. The first order.
Yan Chunlai, general manager of King Kong Glass, is confident in the company’s layout. He said: “Where can we go to mass production if we want to achieve the goal of 25% conversion efficiency in early 2022? We can only go to our King Kong mass production, so I am more I have confidence. After mass production, we will set the conversion efficiency to 25%."
It is reported that Maiwei is the equipment supplier of King Kong Glass’s 1.2GW heterojunction battery assembly line. This is the first GW-level delivery of the entire line of Maiwei HJT equipment, and it is also the company’s HJT3.0 equipment. The first order.
With the localization of equipment, the reduction of the cost of silver paste and target materials, and the enhancement of conversion efficiency brought about by the "increasing efficiency + cost reduction" benefits, 2022 will be regarded as the year of HJT rapid outbreak by the companies on this track. Once the scale effect is opened, the cost reduction channel of HJT batteries will be further opened.
Compared with the current total cost of PERC batteries, which is about 0.7 yuan/W excluding tax, HJT batteries still have a lot of room for cost reduction. Regarding this much criticized HJT cost, Liu Chang, the founder of SOLARZOOM Guangchu Yijia, said that this is not a problem.
He said that HJT can obtain a sales premium of 0.30 yuan/W higher than PERC modules. In the near future, HJT modules will bring more than 0.20 yuan/W after the low silver consumption and the maturity of silicon wafer technology. Profit.
Ma Yiwei, head of CSP Yijia New Energy Think Tank, is even more radical, saying that from the perspective of a "silicon wafer + battery + component integrated enterprise", the fourth quarter of 2021 will achieve HJT production costs and PERC production costs equal. , And HJT products are about 1.5% more efficient than PERC. Compared with PERC’s full life cycle power generation per watt, HJT products have an advantage of up to 3-12%. Compared with PERC, the revised cost advantage of up to 0.3 yuan/W will be in Q4 this year. The production line becomes a reality.
(Editor in charge: Xiao Bei)