https://www.pv-tech.cn/news/Jin_Hao_TOPCon_will_be_mainstream_in_the_next_three_to_five_year?
(Google Translated).
Jinko CTO Jin Hao: TOPCon will be mainstream in the next three to five years
September 19, 2023 Author: Xi Xia
(PV-Tech News) On September 13, 2023, the second phase of the "Pujiang Night Talk" photovoltaic past, present and future forum event hosted by JinkoSolar was successfully held on the banks of the Huangpu River in Shanghai.
Big names gathered at the event, and more than 20 industry experts including authoritative experts and professors in the photovoltaic field, TOPCon industry figures, chief analysts of Dianxin, photovoltaic industry analysts, and chief engineers of the Electric Power Design Institute gathered together to discuss the development of the photovoltaic industry and the latest technology in the industry. , industrial ecological chain and industry future prospects and other topics launched a wonderful collision of views and exchanges. The new and cutting-edge views of the big names play a positive role in promoting the deepening of market understanding of innovative technologies and the advanced development of the photovoltaic industry.
In line with the logic of technological development, TOPCon will continue to improve in the future
In the context of the dual-carbon era, photovoltaics, as the main force in carbon neutrality, has attracted much attention from various industries. In recent years, as P-type PERC cells have gradually approached the theoretical efficiency development limit, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a new iteration cycle of new and old technologies. N-type TOPCon cells have become a new technology route that the industry focuses on and hotly discusses due to their higher conversion efficiency. At the same time, the continuous technological breakthroughs of enterprises in the field have pushed the industry to open a new era of N-type applications. At the forum, Song Fengbing, Vice President of Quality and Products of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., Jia Rui, Director of the New Energy and Optoelectronics Laboratory of the Institute of Microelectronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and other industry experts conducted an overview discussion focusing on the rise and current development status of China's photovoltaic industry.
When talking about the development logic of the industry, Jia Rui said that no matter in the past, present or future, if photovoltaic technology needs to develop, the efficiency will become higher and lower, the cost will get lower and the reliability will get better and better. Impossible logic and principles.
He also said that since the development of the industry, the crystalline silicon technology route has shown the characteristics of blooming. However, judging from the current mainstream TOPCon and heterojunction, the corresponding physical logic behind them is the same, that is, they are all passivated contacts. In the future, several technologies Development involves both reference and integration, as well as differences. In addition, from the perspective of industry development trends, TOPCon will definitely dominate the future, and the market space is much larger than that of several other technologies. In the future, the industry will make concerted efforts to break through the double-sided TOPCon technology, and implement the application of oxide film technology on the TOPCon technology platform. The future development space of TOPCon is quite promising.
Sun Baoquan put forward a consistent view on this, saying that currently, TOPCon technology is only used for one side. Will the double-sided technology increase the theoretical efficiency to 28.7%, or will it be achieved faster and help the industry realize it? There are still many scientific problems that need to be solved ahead of time. However, I believe that with friends from the business community and scientists, the application of more innovative technologies at TOPCon will definitely be accelerated.
In the next two to three years, Jinko’s TOPCon technology mass production efficiency is expected to exceed 27%
Throughout the development path of the photovoltaic industry, technological innovation has always been the key driver for the upgrading and development of the industry. In this era where technology is king, N-type TOPCon technology is becoming a key layout direction in the market with its series of excellent features such as low attenuation, low power temperature coefficient, high efficiency, and high bifacial ratio. In turn, how to further promote N-type technology to reduce costs and increase efficiency has become a hot topic in the industry.
In this regard, senior leaders such as Jin Hao, CTO of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., researcher at the Ningbo Institute of Materials, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and National Distinguished Professor Ge Ziyi conducted in-depth discussions on the current development trends and current development bottlenecks of N-type TOPCon technology. Among them, Jin Hao said that JinkoSolar, as the first company in the industry to build an N-type TOPCon production route, firmly chose the N-type route because of its two major advantages: "high conversion efficiency, low-cost industrialization and production equipment support". TOPCon technology serves as the main layout direction. And through production optimization and material optimization, next-generation technology reserves will be simultaneously carried out, and new technologies will be combined to achieve upgrades. In the next three years or so, a mass production conversion efficiency of 27%-27.5% will be achieved.
In addition to reducing costs through innovative technologies by improving mass production efficiency, improving technology is the only way to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In this regard, Ge Ziyi said that the current perovskite and crystalline silicon stack has achieved an efficiency of 33.7%. He is very optimistic about the lamination application of N-type TOPCon and perovskite, which is the mainstream technology route in the future. With the support of existing equipment, it is expected to further reduce component costs. Regarding the development of TOPCon and perovskite stacking technology, the further improvement of TOPCon cell voltage, the upgrade of passivation contacts, the improvement of voltage contribution, the optimization of perovskite stability and large-area uniformity, and the crystallization of TOPCon sub-cells Control is the direction of future efforts of the industry
Upstream and downstream supply links are gathering strength to accelerate large-scale mass production at TOPCon
As N technology matures, the industry is accelerating the large-scale mass production of N-type new technologies and products. However, to promote new technologies and accelerate the realization of large-scale mass production, it is inseparable from the coordinated linkage between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. In this regard, during the Pujiang Night Talk live conversation, TOPCon industry figures such as Jin Hao, CTO of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., Zhou Guangda, General Manager & CTO of Hangzhou Foster Applied Materials Co., Ltd. also analyzed and analyzed the current situation of the N-type industrial chain layout. comminicate.
Jin Hao said that with the large-scale expansion of TOPCon in the industry, various companies will gradually differentiate into more differentiated route plans to promote the accelerated implementation of future technologies. More companies deploying TOPCon will bring about a virtuous cycle of improving efficiency and reducing costs. As an enterprise with integrated advantages, JinkoSolar has leading advantages in improving the quality and supply of raw materials and the coordination between various links and components. It is estimated that JinkoSolar will still lead the industry dynamically for about half a year in the future.
After seeing that technical problems continue to be overcome and the supply chain continues to improve and mature, the big names at the event held unanimous positive views on the coverage and application of N-type TOPCon in the terminal market. Yu Hanbo, head of JinkoSolar solutions, said that the value of N-type high efficiency is about 6-8 cents, which brings investors a prominent advantage in saving initial investment costs.
In addition, the premium value brought by the increase in N-type power generation is about 2 cents. With an N/P difference of 25-30 watts, the N-type can bring users a premium of 2-2.5 cents per watt. Jinko is firmly committed to the comprehensive layout of N-type TOPCon technology, products, and production capacity, hoping to deliver such value to customers. Currently, the highest premium that Type N can sell is 1 cent, and the value has not yet been reflected, but we firmly believe that with strong production capacity, the story of Type N, the premium of Type N, and the value brought by Type N will definitely be better.
Li Na, chief design engineer of the Northwest Electric Power Design Institute of the China Electric Power Engineering Consulting Group, said that when Jinko, a leader in the global photovoltaic industry, first proposed mass production of TOPCon in 2021, the design institute found that TOPCon was in terms of revenue and technology through calculations of existing project scenarios at the time. Performance is ideal. At present, as the technology continues to mature, the industry’s feedback and recognition of N-type TOPCon is becoming increasingly clear.
PV InfoLink senior analyst Zhao Xiang said that after experiencing the successful mass production of TOPCon in 2022, led by JinkoSolar, TOPCon’s production capacity planning far exceeded expectations, and it is expected that TOPCon’s effective production capacity will exceed PERC in the first half of next year. In the first half of this year, TOPCon module shipments reached approximately 29GW, and the full-year volume is expected to reach 110GW, corresponding to a market share of approximately 25%. Looking forward to 2024, it is expected that the overall shipment proportion of TOPCon next year will very likely exceed 60%, or even higher.
(Editor: Xi Xia)