Price Potential?Hey bigops (great handle), nice to hear from you. Thanks for the comment. Happy to respond. IMO the money question is a highly scalable answer dependent on IF questions, their future outcomes and the timeline being considered.
I’ve followed AMI over the years and cashed nicely on its share spike a decade ago. Back then the market was frothy over the potential seen with Athabasca’s Firebag deposit to serve the energy industry.
Today’s far better alternative is AMI’s 100% interest in the Prosvita (Duvernay) sand deposit which is closely situated to frac activity. With suitable frac specs and proximity it should offer industry the right product at the right price. Shell has examined this sand, determined its suitability, and entered a 5-year offtake agreement with AMI, to commence once Prosvita is operational.
- So, IF AMI receives AB approval to operate Prosvita, and can establish an 800K- 1M tonne annual operation as intended, it has 30M tonnes of resources to serve the frac industry which is seeing actual and forecast sand demand recovering strongly. Should be a home run for AMI, by providing premium local sand without high transport cost.
A little further behind the development path is AMI’s 100% interest in the Montney sand deposit, very well situated to service future LNG silica sand needs.
- AMI indicates that Prosvita sand could also be railed in for LNG, although Montney proximity would be preferable to reduce landed cost through limited transportation.
- Again, IF AMI were to receive AB approval and able to operate Montney, this should be a huge win for AMI.
I was delighted to see that the high quality Firebag sand deposit has found filtration use by an Oil Sand operator.
- IF this and other alternative uses presents a repeatable scenario with attractive margins, Firebag offers a very significant sand supply. Great to see this high quality sand, conveniently accessible and easily extractable, is now being sold.
Stateside, the US Wisconsin JV is projected to produce a very impressive ROI, even at 50% nameplate capacity (2M T capacity, 1M T forecast).
- IF the JV realizes their projected margin on 1M T annually to serve the energy industry, this looks to be a perennial winner. IF the company is successful in its diversification plan to extend its Wisconsin sales to include the solar, construction and environmental remediation markets, so much the better, possibly very much so.
With an operating foothold now in the USA, what potential might exist for AMI to further partner with its BOD power member, JM? JM has 15M shares, ~20% interest in AMI. Conceivable that JM might want to lever his upside potential with AMI shares through expanded joint-business development? JM’s successful international broad-based track record through multiple industry cycles speaks for itself.
- IF future business development could jointly involve AMI and JM, what might that look like and potentially generate?
RockChain is super exciting! A mid-stream market maker with positive market disruption potential. Already it's showing growing market penetration with increasing demand for its current services. Its recent revenue growth and market coverage is substantial. Through “canoe procurement” it appears to now have its platform services accessible across Canada. Plus, AMI is in the process of expanding the roster of services that RockChain will be able to offer. AMI is very bullish on RockChain and will hire to strongly accelerate further national sales.
Has been likened by some industry users as a baby Amazon.
- How big might Rock baby grow?
- AMI’s forecast for the purchasing power potential with RockChain within Canada is dramatic. Successful expansion within USA? Their forecast is mind blowing.
Could current USA interest become future widespread adoption?
The above does not even much consider their historic Aggregates base operations, and the increasingly successful impact and growth potential of its TerraShift Engineering division, the upside potential of both which should not be discounted. Also, a public company with share currency and interest in making future accretive acquisitions. TerraShift stands as a great example.
So bigops, what do I feel might the future share price become? Seems very much dependent on whether AMI hits singles, a home run, or a grand slam. Near term positive news of actual operating results coupled with further positive announcement to support future results, might itself accomplish the price range you mention, as the market has again become interested.
Over a longer timeline, with successful execution, add another digit to precede the current pennies decimal. The size of the prize awaits time, execution and the number of variables coming to fruition. Any and all are free to disagree. That's what makes a market.
This is AMI 2.0. This current cast has already been there/done that. Collectively, I see an excellent brain trust with broad and highly relevant skills and experience to lead with great oversight. Combine that with a talented and ambitious CEO, Officers, management and support team. Both BOD and management have bigtime skin in the game with significant share ownership and unexercised options. Major financial motivation to see AMI succeed, along with the pride of leading this enterprise from its recent ashes to its high ceiling potential.
I very, very much like what I see here. A company with a current low cap, exciting physical and IP assets, audacious aspirations, and a Top-Down Seasoned Team with proven histories.I’ve built up a solid position which I now intend to hold longterm to allow for some maturity of potential.
All the best bigops. I’ve enjoyed reading your comments. Good luck with your investments.
JMO GLTA