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American Bonanza Gold Corp ABGFF



GREY:ABGFF - Post by User

Comment by staolinon Feb 07, 2012 2:42pm
236 Views
Post# 19501075

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: News Update fu

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: News Update fu

Why would I be upset about the 'dismal'  performance? The market makes little to no sense. You try and hop onto whatever you think will outperform the market or make a significant move. Obviously this hasn't made the significant move we hoped it would on news. It doesn't signify bad performance. 

What makes you think I am less than positive on this? That 82c NPV was derived from a chart published by the company and based on 1800/oz. I'd say it is reasonable once they get production up to 45,000oz/yr. The rate in the NR is a 26,000 oz/yr rate. They were running the mill at 80% capacity, with a slightly low recovery % and processing low grade ore. Adding 20% more through the mill at a 10g/t grade (34% higher than the test batch) will give 61% greater output and put them at 42,000oz/yr output prediction.  If grade is higher (10.4 g/t in resource report) then they will be at 44,000. With an increase in recovery they can hit the projected 46,000/yr.

In a few months they should be reaching that output and they should start getting drill results. If gold prices don't crash and the drilling shows potential to expand the resource then I think 82c and a 140~ market cap is a reasonable expectation, with a lot of assumptions about the broader market.

I don't think this is performing bad at all but I wish it would have got to my sell point on this release so I could have taken advantage of other potential movers. But this still hasn't moved and I think it  will so I'll wait for it. Might be wrong. If so, oh well.

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