RE:QuestionsI don’t expect you will get full answers either from CSPG or WWR, however I will give you my opinions.
Is it realistic in terms of its assumptions?
There are two different sets of assumptions. Those about the Coosa deposit are sound, or sound enough at this point. The deposit has both advantages and disadvantages, however they add up to a marginal deposit which doesn’t appear able to competitively supply conventional graphite products to the market. That leaves it will a single internal “buyer”, not an insignificant risk.
The second set of assumptions relates to value added processing. The engineers who completed the PEA are no experts on this subject, instead they relied on CSPG for guidance and CSPG has been tight-lipped, presumably for competitive reasons. CSPG has said that this involves clorination to oxidize deleterious minerals. That’s a known process and seems to work; however details remain lean.
The weakest assumptions I detect are that the market for CSPG’s specialty technology product will persist over the 27 year life of the mine, or even until year 7 when expansion to a properly-sized project is proposed. Hundreds of millions are being spent to develop new battery chemistries, and a new winner will certainly emerge. That and the fact that market graphite is readily available for less than what Cossa will produce, at least near-term.
If not, how should the assumptions have been revised?
Hindsight is 20-20, however I believe that Westwater can now focus on the value-added segment. That makes all the money and does not require completion of a NI43-101-type feasibility study. Instead it can be presented for financing to regular bankers with a regular Business Plan. The $20MM required to front mine construction could instead be spent to procure market graphite compatible with clorination. I know of absolutely no reason why Coosa graphite concentrate would be uniquely amenable to this process, but can understand why CSPG would posture it so.
Have things gotten better since late 2015, or worse, and in what ways?
In 2015 analysts expected Tesla to come calling on graphite juniors. So far it hasn’t. Also since 2015, Syrah Resources has placed its super-mega graphite mine into production. There are other large deposits in Mozambique and Madagascar. The graphite flood is poised to begin.
I don’t know what Westwater will do, or even what it should do. I do see that it has raised a lot of money (it has to, it’s been burning $1MM/mo), something CSPG could never do (it’s burn rate was high as well, that’s why the $2MM loan was needed).
Ann Marie and Tyler stay on; both are good promoters and know where Don kept his files. With Westwater, it’s a different horse on a less strictly regulated market. They will present a story and will have a larger audience to address, without the restrictions of NI43-101 and the TSX.v.. Superbowl instead of Grey Cup. They're coming in as the Browns, so just reaching the playoffs, or talking up their potential to do so, could be a win.