darkest before dawnARF witnesses the fire sale today. That is the typical surender of investors. i have finished my accumulation of 30000 shares today.Here is why i am so confident:
ARF complains in q1 to q3 financials about two major factor affecting the results: high commodities price and the weather. Both of them are right. Here are the charts:
Industrial Product Price Index
Raw Materials Price Index,
as for the weather, we all know the record cold winter 2014.
But ladies anf gentlemen:look at the charts,:start in q3, all of the prices are falling. It takes 3 to 6 months tfor the prices o fall through. And now raw matirals' falling are accelerating, oil under 69, copper under 2.85.
How about weather:
Environment Canada pridicts we will have shorter and warm winter(BNN nov 1st news)
So headwind have changed to tailwind.
Two more factors are favorable to ARF
1, 70 million soundwall contract increase the revenue to estimate 514 m for 2015 and the revenue will begin to be seen form now on.
2, ARF forcast the q3 EBITDA 16 to 18 milliom, only came out with 14 m. So i assume some works are delayed. If thay can make up in q4 half of what was lost in q3, that will be good enough.
If, under such four favorable circumanctances., Management stil can make money in 2015, shareholders then should let the monkey to run the business. I can say anything more.