Post by
Thethruthhurts on Nov 14, 2014 10:30am
More spin.....
I feel like I'm watching the part in the Wizard of Oz when fantasy and reality merge. The travelers look behind the curtain and reveal the true nature of the befuddled operator of the "wizard" machine. Mark Anderson plays the part well of the wizard -- and he has a lion, scarecrow and more than a few tin men around him. So Drainage has not performed well since they fired Ray Wilcock. If you are in a price war find someone that can manage it. Mr Redman has been in his position for a while and clearly cannot manage the challenges of the market for this product line. So revenue wise the company is trending correctly in Q3 but doesn't make up the ground lost to the "bad weather" of Q1. This is a common trend for precast companies where the second half of the year is revenue rich as goods produced are sent to the jobsite. However you can be sure that Armtec's competitors are outstripping sales and deliveries in Q3 and enjoying better numbers. Remember that in 2013 things for Armtec were trending down and things were promised to get better for 2014. Clearly not the case. More spin with the definition of the Gap Measures taken but I still don't see any good news with Earnings from operation numbers nor the EBITDA line -- again trend is going the wrong way after a bad year in 2013. And what will happen if we get bad weather in Canada in Q1???? #nomorepolarvortex The increase in value of the Engineered Precast backlog sounds positive but my guess it more likely reflects the impact of increases in raw material costs which have pushed up the value of the backlog. The number to compare is tonnage volume to see if its a real value increase for the company. Theses guys will never reveal tonnage as it can lead to clues about market share and their is no way they would ever want us to know that! The Wall job is a bright light. Traditionally margins are good on the sound wall product however the scale of the job makes it unlikely that the material was sole sourced and not subject to a highly competitive bid process. Durisol wall is no longer patten protected and competition has been making in roads in Canada into the sound wall business. Margins will be tight here for sure. Through all this we see no announcements of cut backs or of restraint. No one will ditch the Concord palace for the homey digs of good old Guelph. Bring in some talent to help you deal with market trends that your current leaders can't handle and get rid of the cast of figure head managers that do little to ad value to the bottom line. One Key point here is that this company has been starved for CapEx for 5 years now. The assets are old and far from state of the art. Armtec's competition is investing in production improvements and efficiencies. Armtec cannot afford CapEx. This is where the competition pulls away and creates an industry "gap measure" that Armtec won't be able to close. Great idea here -- Rome is burning. Put the fiddle down and run the company properly with vision and leadership. And stop telling us its only getting better because history says its only gotten worse. #Armtec @Armtec