Alaris Royalty Corp ALARF

Under valued

[gvixid]

After the latest partner was added in November we rose to $19, then over the next 6 weeks we dropped back to 16-17 for no material reason. Stock is trading at book value, which corresponds to 9x earnings. Ridiculously undervalued by any metric compared to its peers. We need multiple expansion to rise back to normal levels, but market still won't buy the story after 3 years in the penalty box. Management has cleaned up the dirty files and is adding solid partners that are accretive to revenue. Balance sheet is the best it has been in years. Something doesn't add up

[rickkulesza]

Bad deals, I don’t think so, but does the market ?

[SunsetGrill]

No material reason?? - The markets just had their worst qrt since the world was coming apart in 2008. The markets dont need a reason; but if they did it would have been "world wide selling". Look around - this is not the only stock at book and 9x earnings. The market is not going to go to AD first;  they will be going to faster growth names in a turnaround (energy and financials are

[Capharnaum]

Canadian stocks in general are really cheap (especially financials). As to the growth part, I have to disagree with you... Alaris at this point has a better growth profile since they have room to improve results by another 10% in the coming year. That's not even accounting for extra $ they may get back (that was written down previously). Alaris also has built-in organic growth in their

[SunsetGrill]

Dude - they have a >90% payout ratio. You dont think that makes a few managers a bit nervous (he ll  it makes me nervous). One thing goes wrong and Kaboom. Please dont say you think AD is a sleep at night holding over a bank (which increases divy yr after yr by as much as 10%) AD divy increase They better get growing or they are in big trouble

[Capharnaum]

If you don't like Alaris, maybe you should just move on... Alaris pays most of its earnings in dividends, that's what they do. That's why their yield is 9%+ and not 4.5%. Hence their payout is high (imagine that... it's why they created Alaris). Just like I posted, they have a better growth profile from built-in collar growths to their deals, extra profit on exits, etc. You may

[SunsetGrill]

Whatever - Thanks for the lesson on a ROYALTY co. and BTW their historic ratio is below 80% and Mr Kings ideal is about 60%. I guess you have not read my numerous posts on this company in the past. Let me ask you this... If there largest partner went bankrupt tomorrow - what would happen to the stock? AND what would happen to the divy??

[SunsetGrill]

Also : You must not have missed the part where i stated i averaged down in Dec @ 16.50. Oh ya and if you knew anything about my other posts at all you would know i have owned this since it went public. Keep trying though

[MrEvilx]

Its definitely undervalued .. but then again there are reasons for this.. payout ratio is high .. there is fear of recession in the markets and AD is not the stock you want to own during recession. Recession can wipe out many private businesses, who just happen to be Alaris's customers.   It pays steady divvy, own it as long as you like the divvy, stock price rise might not

[mickeymouse]

Good response - payout ratio is at 90% and will be lower after the resets at the start of this year which are projected to average a +4%.  For posters that don't follow this company closely it is good to have someone who posts facts as opposed to others whose goal is to try to whip up negative sentiment for their short  position or to gain a better entry point. Thought maybe the

[gvixid]

Good point - jan 1 resets will lower the payout by a few points. I think the market didn't like the div increase; management was trying to make a point, but it seems they should have waites until it was down around 80%, which is when King said he would raise the div. We need anothrr significant contribution along with 1-2 quarters of solid results confirming that none of the partners are in

[Capharnaum]

I believe they raised the dividend for two reasons: 1- They wanted to stay on the dividend aristocrats list. Probably generates interest in the stock (and keeps it on the ETF?... I'm not certain) 2- Imo, they believe that the extra BCC contributions will both come in this year, along with some money back that's been written off, so with that and the resets they will likely sit around 80%

[SunsetGrill]

Out today @ 17.49 on the small avg. down position i took in Dec. @ 16.50 as i mentioned earlier last week.  So Caph (or Dickey "I'll never post here again" Mouse"  Seriously?? 80%. Put you pen to paper again.  You think Mr Kings history is one of "if we get the money owing us" and IF "BCC does deploy there other 2/3 monies ". That is no way to

[Capharnaum]

Glad to see you're out. You really should put your money in BNS and leave Alaris alone. Alaris does have about another $140M (CAD) to invest at the moment. Money written off and owed was already recuperated in 2018 (but it's so easy to ridicule?), they should get some more back in 2019. BCC will deploy the rest of the capital, at least another tranche in 2019 if you believe anything

[SunsetGrill]

Am I missing something with you two? AD is my largest holding and i trade around it when it gets ridiculously cheap (keeping my core position throughout). I have complete faith in Mr King and a recovery to 80% or below. Whats your problem exactly?? We will see what the ratio is next qtr. (it will still be well above 90%). Oh and BTW they CUT the divy in 2009. Are you saying they did great due

[mickeymouse]

Estimated payout ratio for 2019 is 89.1% from the financials but that is prior to any more deployment of capital - is that close to flirting with 100%? - still see "gross investment" is estimated at 90million CDN for 2019 by Scotia analyst - but then again he was way off in his estimate for capital deployment in 2018. Current share price around 21.30 - so if one had sold at 17.49 two

[rickkulesza]

I sold 35% today,   21.3 or so So guaranteed to go way up ! but  risk management says sell.. still 8 percent of my portfolio.  These are good people, they are smart and work hard, thank you alaris management  i believe fmv is aprox 23 dollars Glta

[Strohs16]

I have sold some as well within the last week and sold some today.  Left some moeney on the table with the great run up today however I had my own target share prices that were hit so alls well. I still own 800 shares but did hold as many as 2400, which I held all the way down and then in and out on the way back Up again. i sold out mostly at break even .... the amount I held previously was

[TickerTwit]

The actual payout ratio has another small helper for Q4 -- the USD was riding a little higher than the run-rate assumption of 1.32. This might be worth ~1% off. .

[mickeymouse]

Everyone has their own investing strategy - some are traders and some buy and hold for dividends - whatever works. What doesn't work is when immature people come on here to puff out their chest and brag about their trades and then make condescending remarks about other people and how they invest - do you know anyone like that Sunset Grill? This was posted on January 4th - the resets for the