Answer to a Yahoo Question on AMRS Share Price I thought this would be helpful for everyone but is in response to Jan R.'s question about "I need AMRS to reach $25 to become a millionaire. Will this happen one day? Yay or Nay?"
My response:
One day, I think the odds are in your favor.
Of the three analysts that provide updated Price Targets after the Q3 2021 earnings call (that I am aware of, there may be more) here are their "12-month Price Targets":
Roth Capital - $15
HSBC - $16
H.C. Wainright - $30
If have reviewed both the HSBC and HC Wainright reports, and its interesting to see the differences on the financial forecasts:
HCW (although a higher price target) has significantly lower forecasts:
Q4' 2021 =. $57.8MM
2022 Revenues = $341,045
2024 Positive EBITDA
While HSBC has conversely, significantly higher forecasts:
Q4' 2021 =$72MM
2022 Revenues = $466MM
2022 Positive EBITDA
My own research (based on order volumes) seems to indicate Q4 will likely come in at between $60MM - $70MM.
It's important to note that the company has guided to:
Q4 2021 Revenues = $53MM to $93MM (a wide range, in large part due to uncertainty of the supply chain)
2022 revenues = $500MM
Positive EBITDA achieved sometime in 2022 (most likely they meant in Q4 2022)
In large part, both analysts (and the market) are holding the company to a "show me first" attitude before they place any further trust in their guidance. I have worked through the numbers and, assuming no further supply chain disruptions, and assuming the company is accurate in some of its "new acquisitions" revenues and non-Consumer Products guidance, I believe the $500MM is very achievable. However, that said, it would be prudent to put some discount to that estimate (like the Analysts have)
The big elephant in the room is the IBRX/AMRS JV and associated trials. If that comes out with positive results early in the year (e.g., Q1 or Q2 of 2022), than that will be a big windfall in cash flows which will easily have them blow through their $500MM forecast (since management has indicated that none of the vaccine related efforts are included in the guidance). With 1 Billion doses planned, and $7/dose in revenues and $2/dose of COGS and assuming some SG&A/Distribution costs....management has stated that it would be "several hundreds of millions of dollars to us in financial contribution for the JV in 2022.". That alone could accelerate your path to $25/share (not just because of one COVID trial, but also because of what it means for opening the doors to other related applications in the same vertical).
So, if I were a betting man, I would personally place a $15/share price target in the next 12 months (assuming no positive vaccine results), but if the results do come in strong from the clinical trials, you just may very well see the $25 price target hit in that same timeframe.
Hope that helps and Happy Holidays and Happy Investing!