Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd ANSBF

RE: Ainsworth & lumber

[J3X]

While lumber and OSB prices in recent years have typically directionally moved the same, largely due to overall housing data, the magnitudes of the moves can be drastically different. For instance, in 2003 the year-over-year average OSB price was up over 80% while lumber was up less than 5%. And if you look in a larger historical context, average annual lumber and OSB prices have moved in opposite directions, for instance in each of 1996, 1997, 1998, 2002, and 2008. While overall housing data will always be the big dial-mover for these prices, the supply-demand pictures of lumber and OSB can be totally different, with lots of small sawmills on the one hand and fewer big, expensive osb facilities on the other. This explains why as housing data has improved of late, the traditional lumber - OSB spread has gone from $100 or so in recent years to practically nothing. Lumber has done well but OSB is on fire.