Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd ANSBF

High volume trades

[ahs]

Many big trades today, 6 times the normal volume.  Pushed price from $2.85 to $3.00.  Wish I knew what it all meant.

https://www.financialpost.com/markets/data/market-block_trades.html

Quarter end should be Dec. 31, results published about 60 days later (March 8).  This is according to previous reporting.

[estebancaballo]

sixty days later would be more like March 2.......

[mapmaker]

they have the conference call right after the reults. The results will be out end of the day on the 7th and then the conference call on the 8th. Thats the way it usually happens. I wouldnt get too excited though. Q4 will be close to Q3 for numbers plus with the rights offering, it may not look that amazing. benchmark for q3 was $312, q4 will be ~$333. The big step up will be q1

[ahs]

Good analysis.  Does that take into account the dive of the C$?  That could add 5% to the OSB price if it continues throught Q1.

[estebancaballo]

Thanks for the cogent analysis M. What do you think the impact of the rights offering will be on the Q4? My guess is that it will be a wash as it is a non-cash item right? I am not too clear on this and would appreciate your input. The Globeinvestor website lists the estimated earnings per share as .12, I think. (The site is down now and I can't check.) That is a big improvement over the same

[louel]

Share float has doubled      But then the price of OSB has put the company clearly in the black with demand growing allowing full production for current operations.  The company now has less debt to service  I don't see that as being anything but good  Demand is growing such that Canfor is anticipating re=starting it's Alberta OSB plant in a

[estebancaballo]

Right and the doubling of the float is a was as the money was used to pay down debt......equity/share should remain constant if this was done right.

[estebancaballo]

Typo: was = wash

[mapmaker]

kinda, sort of in my opinion. I used my own book value formula for ANS before the rights and got a realistic book value of $1.76, and after the rights including the money raised and got $1.36. so a 23% reduction because of the rights. Definately not a wash. But we, ANS investors, all got a great deal because of it. Why this quarterly might turn out very good is that the analyst`s

[estebancaballo]

Given your track record, I'm glad to be on the same side of this investment as you, M! Thanks for the info.......so it would seem that they diluted somewhat more than I expected to get the money - on the plus side they did reduce lending costs and that should increase profitability, n'est-ce pas? Hard to know how the market will react to a beat such as the one that you describe but in my

[thedave2006]

good action longs since the upgrade and ahead of earnings.  all signs point to a good quarter.  lumber prices have had a great ride up, then a usual dip and now poised for higher pricing of which will lead to a better and better bottom line for many players in the sector, including ainsworth.   cheers, dave.

[specboy2011]

ANS on fire..Wish I would have waited for today to sell half instead of friday to convert to WEF shares.But ANS will take out old highs this week now for sure

[fibonnaci]

for sure..... i wonder where ainsworth would be if the overall market was decent today? i was concerned the property scare in china last night would have a trickle down effect on the lumber/osb names but it had the opposite affect which is a very very bullish sign   ainsworth shares have shrugged off the rights issue and are ready to break out to multi year highs.... all we need is a