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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd ANSBF

GREY:ANSBF - Post Discussion

Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd > What are price possibilities
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Post by louel on Mar 19, 2013 3:08pm

What are price possibilities

I had mentioned the high price reached $35 and it could in the end get there again.  There was comments of pumping. 

  Thanks to an inbox.  (A true thank you I appreciated your input)  I found ANS had done a reverse split and that is how it actually reached the mentioned high.      Very true.   When a security splits either way, up or down. The value of the company does not change.  Nor do the value of your holdings.  The only difference is that either value is just spread over a larger or smaller amount of shares.  If you have $1000 in $20 bills you hold 50 pieces of paper.  Or if you have 10 bills worth  $100 each you still have the same value of $1000.   That is also how it is with shares and company valuation. 

With what I've just mentioned in mind. I did a research comparison.  Oct 13 2009,  Exerpt from news release.

"Norbord a troubled wood panel manufacturer controlled by Brookfield Asset Management, said Tuesday it plans a reverse stock split that will reduce the number of shares outstanding.

Norbord’s shareholders will receive one consolidated share for every 10 they hold prior to the transaction, effective Oct. 16. 

Norbord said it will continue to list its shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They closed Friday, ahead of the holiday weekend, at $1.62. There were about 432 million common shares outstanding. That will be reduced to about 43.2 million after the reverse stock split, which was authorized at a shareholder meeting in April."

    The transaction instantly inflated the share price 10 fold.  As I held NBD shares.  I remember posting on the NBD board at the time it would not in the long I considered it a good thing in the face of adversity of other posters.  There were comments the share price would crash again, it was a scam, who do they think their fooling.  You know how it goes.      The new price for NBD initially climbed a bit to around 19 to 20 dollars . then it succumbed to economic pressures and ended up near seven dollars. 

As the economy began to turn NBD bottomed and turned upward again.   Would it ever see that unimaginable impossible inflated $17  top again ?     Well today it was not at $17 or even the $19 high.   It is  $37 and still within a macro uptrend after pulling back from a high of $38.93 just two days ago.

    Do I believe it is possible for ANS to hit its reverse split high ?  I don't see why not,     We are backed,  majority owned,  and management guided by the same Brookfield Management.     We manufacture the same products for the same market which is just getting started.    Have the ability to share technology as NBD is a sister company under the same umbrella.     And ANS has the ability to increase production far beyond that of 2005.   Even if we don't reach those highs.  I'm betting share price will be a lot higher than what it is today   That is my honest opinion.

Comment by fibonnaci on Mar 19, 2013 3:37pm
you are preaching to the choir..... i agree with you 100%   its rediculous how people have come on here and talked about valuation of ainsworth and then mention other wood/osb stocks, like their stuff dont stink too!!! lol   regardless of the name, every single wood/lumber/osb took it in the buttt from early 2000s till now, whether it was reverse splits, share issuance, closings ...more  
Comment by louel on Mar 19, 2013 4:00pm
I know what you mean. I said around $3.30 I would like to see a pullback to add in the dip but it never happened.  I picked up a few more anyways.  In hind site it should have been a lot more.
Comment by mapmaker on Mar 20, 2013 12:37am
There is no reason to sell. OSB prices are staying at $430. ANS debt is under control. Housing starts are up. But it looks like everyone is taking a bit of profit (including myself) at the $4 mark judging by the 2M trades + per day. the chart is slowly ekking up as the sellers dry up and ANS will be on another run. My next sell point would be $6.50 and i bet alot of people are thinking ...more  
Comment by dosperros on Mar 20, 2013 6:12am
Hi team,   Price possibilities.  You mostly nailed it.  Steady creep up.  I disagree on the $6.50 until we get it legitimized by analysts and cashflows though, but it will come.   What shocked me was how bang on The Street is for Q1.  I'm long, so no big deal, but I hadn't scrutinized for some time.  Mr. Quinn at RBC notes the following:   Q1:   ...more  
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