Africa Oil Corp. AOIFF

Namibia's offshore oil discoveries estimated at 11 bln

[EGF30]

Interesting to see just how much AOI will keep slowly creeping up a little bit at a time leading into Total's upcoming investor days. 

It was also no doubt by design to throw out some preliminary numbers well ahead of time to help keep the lid semi-on before the complete results are released.

I have an unmistakable feeling that Venus success will be what will be looked back upon as the transformational moment for this company. 

The exact same unmistakable feeling I have with the newly formed CPKC as it is only now at the begginging of what will be looked back upon as the most important and transformational moment in it's 142 year history. 

Once all of the 25 captial infrastrucutre improvements are completed in 2025, the flood gates of new business will be wide open.

Those that listened to me and bought CP 21 years ago have all made out like bandits. Those that listen to me today and buy CP while it is still on sale will also make out like bandits over the next two decades.   

Only 3 more sleeps until my next buy.      


GLTA.   
               

Namibia's offshore oil discoveries estimated at 11 bln barrels - NAMCOR | Reuters

[Lonegaurdian19]

Not to throw water on the fire, but it is important to know that the info leaked and leaked early is usually from non-specialists. IE the lowest paid folks tend to leak info. so the driller leaks and says "yup we found oil" that's all and great, if a geologist leaks "yeah 100 meters of pay" then later you find out it's 100 meters of heavy in a shi@@y trap. Welp you

[EGF30]

Agreed and 100% right definitely a bit guilty of putting the cart before the horse here as talk is always cheap and proof is always in the pudding.     It’s true my recent excitement is largely based on what I have seen reported and industry buzz surrounding the Venus discovery for the past year or so. With public comments made by Total’s CEO of a ‘big oil column’ and comments from

[Lonegaurdian19]

I am excited as well. It is important to note that in the entire world there are at best 15 companies that can handle or stomach buying out Impacts interest. Does that mean anything? Time will tell, the valuation is subject to those with a budget and future projections of oil prices. A prime example is Total who is all in on Namibia (which is great) but they also found a fair amount of oil in

[tdon1229]

Report is that Impact is looking to exit Venus development by sale of its 20%, as it doesn't have the capital to develop the find.  Waiting on results of additional appraisal activity. Look for AOI to take a its investment share of the sale, or perhaps a small share in the project development.

[firstworld]

They can selling to RU and CN to scare the global minority losing parties away then they take the rest and invest $20B in infrastructure and mobilization in 2 years since RU and CN have zero materials or labor shortages.  Massive cashflow in 36 maths.

[Lonegaurdian19]

@ a net 6% indirect via Impact I disagree. AOI will need the dividend from Impact once the sale is finalized. it will create a buffer, so say, they get $450 million after taxes. That's about what you want to carry on your books. AOI's life line is Prime, without it game over. Prime just over levered again, around $500 net to AOI. If it's going to be a cash cow, you'd wait

[Lonegaurdian19]

The good news is if they get $450 million in cash on the books your looking at a future PE of about 2, industry standard is about 7. Nigeria offshore is considered very safe and you'll have majors who will no longer look at AOI over their shoulders like a bookie saying "are you good for these monies" once Nigeria is pumped via the infill and new wells it will meet production goals

[Suppe11]

Well...after the Niger+Gabun coup d'ats the words "country x there is safe" sounds a bit like a stretch. The risk btw. is not, that they can't pump any oil, but a new tax regime. I doubt that the 11b bbl number is insider info. They talked about Totals+Shells finds...not probable to have sources in both and connect them. Anyway it's a downgrade, in the enthusiastic beginning

[firstworld]

NOC and Super Majors demand bank guarantees from allmpartners on all projects incl vendors. AOI will be no exception and they know that and willmhave to save up a lot of cash hnkess willing to massively dilute and / or borrow at 14%. With Prime dictating divs and not paying out a lot thanks to its massive debt load could be in for a long wait

[tdon1229]

Further to the Impact situation re Venus, thiis just in today re Shell's appraisal well spud on the Jonker discovery just next door... Shell spuds critical Orange basin appraisal well on 2.5 billion barrel oil find | Upstream Online