N00bInvesT0R wrote: Ticker APHA on the Nasdaq. Why not APHA on the TSX?
- Volume is higher on Nasdaq and higher volume = more meaningful price action
- It also happens that today TSX is closed, happy Thanksgiving
All prices will be in USD $ unless I mention otherwise.
Comments before diving in
The trend is your friend, not everyone has to agree or use Technical Analysis but when you look at the big companies that are successful , they are on a Monthly and Weekly Uptrend
What is an Uptrend? Higher Low (HL) + Higher High (HH)
What is a Downtrend? Lower High (LH) + Lower Low (LL)
As long as you keep doing HL, you keep the Uptrend intact.
As long as you keep doing LH, you keep the Downtrend Intact.
Today was a significant day for APHA, the last time it was in a Monthly Uptrend was in 2018 where it hit it's historical all time highs 19.87.
Weekly TimeFrame (1 Candle = 1 Week of Price Action)
Weekly Uptrend, if anyone followed my posts since the beginning, I said that earnings were gonna be the difference maker, to not take the bear break seriously unless there is significant follow up, it was the September 21st week.
Earnings will determine if it's a weekly bull HH fake-out or not
Here's the chart, link : https://www.tradingview.com/x/TEtSIOCb/
Monthly TimeFrame (1 Candle = 1 Month of Price Action)
Not gonna show you all 2017 but gonna show you before + 2018 . After you will see now, what happened today. We are also in a Monthly Uptrend.
6,15 was the top of the pandemic bounce + where we topped out before negative reaction to Q4 202 Earnings. High of the day is 6.44.
Earnings will determine if it's a Monthly bull HH fake-out or not
Link : https://www.tradingview.com/x/q5Th7RZ7/
Daily TimeFrame (1 candle = 1 Day of Price Action)
We are in Daily Uptrend, this chart may not be beautiful but red lines except the first one = HL
Green lines except the first one = HH
When bull action is strong, the same candle can be a HH and HL, so we got confirmation that we repeated the same scenario we had on the October 6th Candle.
Chart link : https://www.tradingview.com/x/CL65idCB/
All you need to know is that anything above 5.44 = Daily HL
Key Supports
Don't want to overwhelm you with charts so we would have to zoom in the Hourly
Timeframe to find out that
- Anything above 6.14 = Hourly Higher Low
If we break 6.14, most likely scenario is Daily Consolidation under way.
- We would then look at 5.74 which is today Low of the day
If we break 5.74, we would then look at
- 5.44 , anything above 5.44 = Daily HL
Key Resistances
- Today High of the day 6.44
If we break 6.44, we are looking to test a key resistance from September 16 2019 week
Conclusion + Protect Profits
Any short that entered on Friday on the Canadian Side is under water and didn't have the option to cover his short position (ouch)
I personally expect a gap up open and a boring/weird day to adjust the Nasdaq and TSX delay
It's a never a bad idea to sell a part of your position, if you entered during the week of September 21st (depending on how well you nailed the bottom) , you are looking at 40 to 55% after less than 3 weeks.
Even if you are a long, protecting profits even if it would imply selling at a loss would still allow you to buy when consolidation happens because unfortunately it's part of the game.
I would be a liar if I tell you that I didn't sell any shares or don't actively manage my position, part of my position is long and the other part is actively managed.
Disclaimer
This post is for educational purposes, I am not a financial advisor or a crystal ball price action fortune teller.
Stick to your strategy, I am not encouraging anyone to do like me, don't want to brag but it took me a lot of practice to get there. The last thing you want to do is wait for someone signal to buy or sell.
Never trust anyone on forums, take decisions based on your Due Diligence and knowledge.
Looking forward to earnings and hopefully you understand more Technical Analysis which is the goal of my educational purposes post.
Thank you for reading, take care