Markets and Presidential Elections HistoryForbes - Dan Clifton of Strategas Research Partners
August 18, 2020 In the last 100 years, every president who averted a recession during this period was reelected. Only one, Calvin Coolidge, went on to win reelection when there was a reccesion in the two years leading up to the election.
His research also shows how stock market performance leading up to an election has also been a major indicator of the outcome. The performance of the S&P 500 in the three months before votes are cast has predicted 87% of elections since 1928 and 100% since 1984. When returns were positive, the incumbent party wins. If the index suffered losses in the three-month window, the incumbent loses.
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