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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Aphria Inc. APHA

Aphria, which is headquartered in Ontario, produces and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis. The company operates through retail and wholesale channels in Canada and internationally. Aphria is a main distributor of medical cannabis to Germany and has operations in over 10 countries outside of Canada. However, it does not have exposure to the U.S. CBD or THC markets due to the constraints... see more

NDAQ:APHA - Post Discussion

Aphria Inc. > Q1-Q2 2021 Cashflow positive?
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Post by N00bInvesT0R on Sep 26, 2020 1:01pm

Q1-Q2 2021 Cashflow positive?

If you are curious about the Q4 performance alone meaning the 3 months covered by Q4 (because Q4 they condense all the year performance), click on the Q4 MD&A 2020 :

https://aphriainc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/3a.-aphria-Q4-2020-management-discussion-and-analysis-v2.pdf

Now go on page 33 and notice it says :  " The company's income statement for the three months ended May 31 2020 which means it isolates Q4 performance.

That's what I meant at the start of my post, when they release Q4, it's the company's income  statement for the year ended May 31 2020 if you open the Q4 income statements which is a different document on Aphria's website

Anyways, if you want to have a good idea of what would Q1 2020 look like,  take the comprehensive loss (97,263) and remove the 63,791 Impairment that is not recurrent.

That brings you to a comprehensive loss of 33.472 M

Page 36 you have the fully diluted shares 289,507 M (I rounded up)

So 33.472/ 289.507 = 0.115 so let's round it to -0.12 Earning per share.

Page 17 they talk about the Aleafia Settlement and judging by the last sentence of that paragraph I assume that this also impacted Q4 which is also  a non recurrent cost.

Page 15 and 16 they talk about Jamaica, Columbia and Lesotho that are part of that 64M impairment, and from my understanding they are also cutting the spediings over there temporarily.

Unfortunately the Virus added 2M cost to the supply chain (1M for Germany and 1M For  Canada)  page 15 also.

Page 35  Capital and intangible assets expanditures that I expectt also to not be recurrent.

Yes I'm a LONG shareholder so yes I'm buyest I want the share price to go up but with the cannabis sales going up according to June and July (August not out yet) on top of Aphria halting international Capex spending with Aphria Diamond ramped up, I think that all the headwinds are here to see a profit Q1 or Q2 2021

Here are my favorite parts of  Q4 2020 earnings call , will start with the link :

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/07/29/aphria-inc-apha-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript.aspx

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Owen Bennett -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Hey, how are you doing? A couple of questions, please. Just first of all, you've had a number of GMP approvals through now. And you mentioned the continued spend on the German cultivation. Could you just maybe talk about your expectations for the EU, Germany, specifically over the next 12 months and when that German cultivation comes online? And then, secondly, you spoke about possibly being in the market for attractive distressed assets.

Just wondering what would you class as an attractive distressed asset, a bit more clarity around that. Thank you very much.

Carl Merton -- Chief Financial Officer

OK. Thanks, Owen. I'll handle the first part of the question, and Irwin will take the second. The EU GMP certifications that we received in the last couple of quarters are a big opportunity for us.

We see the ability to supplement the German market with export sales in Q2. As we've now secured all of the external permits necessary, we're just waiting for the one from Health Canada to make our first shipment. We expect the first sale to happen just at the end of Q1, early Q2. We're also looking at using our Canadian operations, as we talked about earlier, to enter into the Colombian market with that product on an interim basis based on all the changes that were happening in COVID.

The cost structure that we've been seeing coming out of our Canadian cultivation operations put them very close to the ability to -- sorry, the cost structure inside of the Colombian market. And so we see that as a positive way to avoid what was supposed to be a short-term capex spend.

 

Andrew Carter -- Stifel Financial Corp. -- Analyst

Yeah. Kind of a timeline for free cash flow generation. I know you're not giving guidance, but kind of anything we should think about on that side, positive free cash flow, obviously.

 

Carl Merton -- Chief Financial Officer

So getting to positive free cash flow is really a function of the capex spend. And now that we see the huge changes we've made there, you'll see that capex spend decrease over the first couple of quarters, and we should easily be into free cash flow by the back half of the year.

Irwin Simon -- Chief Executive Officer

And also was building inventory as part of Aphria Diamond and capex, so we should absolutely see positive free cash flow.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Now I  know that is the word of management but honestly when you do your Due Diligence and read the Q4 MD&A (you should do beyond that if you are a new investor) you see that there is convergence to those claims and not divergence.

This is the perfect recipe, adult-use cannabis sector growing where Aphria is #1 and reduction of expenses.  Profits are possible if Revenus -  Expenses > 0

Which is possible when you see Revenus growing and expenses decreasing.

I would just like to say that I'm sharing my Due Diligence for educational purposes to help people understand why it's important to do it and ignore opinions.

Opinion based on facts = Thank you for your Due Diligence

Opinion based on emotions = Trash, please stop posting

Yes I wish I had a Crystal ball and only bought Aphria at the virus lows so I could already be up 100%. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that but valuable lessons were learned in my case, like scaling in for example.

Only reason I'm still holding and didn't give up is because the company is improving and near profitability.

Look at our competitors, Canopy Growth had 5B in cash and is down to less than 1B and is not even Ebidta positive on top of losing market share where it matters the most, recreational sales or adult-use whatever you wanna call it. Halted constructions,fired many employees, and closed facilities.

Then you have Aurora Cannabis, Diluted shareholders like crazy 1B outstanding shares, to then hide their sins in a 1-12  reverse split. They are down to 163M cash only and burned 150M last quarter, so basically they are 2 quarters away from bankruptcy unless they dilute shareholders again (even after halting constructions, closing facilities, and firing many employees).

So again, look what our competitors achived in 2020 versus Aphria, it's hard to say that a competent CEO and management team doesn't make the difference.

At the AGM vote according to numbers, not with your emotions because you expected to buy Aphria at the perfect price and become rich overnight. Vote with your brain not your heart.

I will stay transparent with the board, if cash flow positive doesn't happen by Q2 2021 then I will admit that I was wrong despite my due diligence, the best thing someone can do is admit they are wrong and move on to next investment.

My Ideal scenario is to see the share trade between 8 and 10$ to sell somewhere in that range right after Q1 since U.S.A elections are likely to impact the stock market and I believe that APHA is strongly correlated with the S&P 500. Like you heard me say, when S&P 500 goes down, it is most likely that APHA is going  down. Unfortunately when S&P 500 goes up it is not likely that APHA is going up also.

Thanks for reading if you made it that far and have a nice week-end

Comment by Steve0123 on Sep 26, 2020 1:13pm
Very good post and appreciated. Thanks N00b, enjoy your weekend!!  Cheers
Comment by Daredevil1964 on Sep 26, 2020 3:35pm
The settlement between Aleafia and Aphria was an June 25, 2020. 1.7 million shares to equal 10 million and another 15.5 million in cash.  https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/06/25/2053490/0/en/Aleafia-Health-Inc-and-Emblem-Cannabis-Corporation-Announce-Settlement-of-Claim.html TORONTO, June 25, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aleafia Health Inc. (TSX: AH) (OTC: ALEAF) (“Aleafia Health” ...more  
Comment by Daredevil1964 on Sep 26, 2020 3:41pm
Unortunatly Q4 ended ended May 31 of 2020. The Aleafia transaction will have a bearing on the upcoming quarter, Exactly how is anyone's guess. How Aphria, and where Aphria includes the settlement is key. Revenue will not be affected but, the EPS certainly could be.
Comment by CentreIce24 on Sep 26, 2020 5:10pm
Hey DD64 From the Aphria's MD&A in July Aleafia  Settlement Subsequent  to  year-end,  we  entered  into  a  settlement  agreement  with  Aleafia  Health  Inc. (“Aleafia”)  with  respect  to  the settlement of  the  arbitration  relating  to  the  Supply  Agreement ...more  
Comment by gottahunch on Sep 26, 2020 5:19pm
Thanks @CentreIce24 for that
Comment by CaneIsAbel on Sep 26, 2020 5:09pm
That was an amazing post by noobinvester. Dam I you're right DareDevil. It may be on the next quarter which is a huge drag right now on my mood. They took a 99 million loss 64 million do to non recurring writedowns. There was few other supply chain issues but I always assumed the balance was the Emblem deal that brought us to the 100 mill loss.  
Comment by Ventura2020 on Sep 27, 2020 12:35pm
Once again, thank you for the good read, putting together this post and your due diligence research, N00b! Have a great weekend! V
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