Antrim Energy Inc. ATGYF

RE: The big picture, P10 will go to P50 in 2010

[Bigbadoil]

Good points Big John.Especially the point that AEN only needs enough reserves to make an economic project so they can finance it. As i have been posting on the other BB, it is tough to equate this independent report with Canadian reserve reporting (AEN will have to do this by March 31st. Last year AEN reported 2P reserves at Causeway of 12.3 mmstb (from East Causeway drilling) People are confusing the P50 reserves of this RPF report with P2 reserves defined under National Instrument 150 (Canadian standards) P50 assumes a 50% probability of the stated reserves being there, whereas P2 reserves are definded as having btw a 40% and 80% probablity of the stated reserves being there. Therefore the number to equate will lie btw the p50 and p10 of the RPF report!! Also they are using a low recoverable factor (28%)50% recovery for Jurassic fields in the N. Sea under water injection is the norm. We also do not know the parameters that where used, so in many ways we are whistling the dark! The analysts are just taking the numbers and doing their re-jigs on the numbers. We have already taken the 50% hit in the SP. so it is old news! My point is are they comparing Apples with Apples? On approval of the ,alot of those P2 reserves will go to P1 (Proven), which by definition have a 90% probabiliy of being there. Production is what counts and will mitigate an upgrading of reserves. Still will be getting 15000-20000 BOPD. Every new well drilled will change the reserves too. Most oilfields are upgraded over their history. The RPF report does not include Kerloch, Fyne and Dandy or Argentina. Bigbadun'