Active Control Technology Inc ATIVF

RE: Does anybody see any downside ...

[mikerosoft666]

I see the only down side is that they do not get any sales over the next month or so.  But what you have to remember and research is,  in 2007 when they were first awaiting MSHA approvals they were sitting on $20 Million worth of PO's.  Now they don't have half of that because the PO's would have expired out awaiting MSHA approval.

With the approval behind us,  I expect that whoever made the $20 Million worth of decisions would still be interested and I'm waiting to hear those and more come back.  We are all guessing and imagining where things are going to land.  I feel like I am sitting at the BlackJack table with 2 cards in front of me making up 11 and trying to decide whether to double down or hold the position.  But if a 10 drops I'm sure going to be glad of that double.

We don't know what card will be next but if it is the Sales Card then we are going to be glad we are holding.  If it isn't, I don't think ACT share price drops like a rock but you could see it trickle down a ways.

The thing is this company seems to be adept at pacing the news well.  I feel we could see Sales news this week or next... maybe it will be longer and maybe share price will drift.  The exciting part is that there is money on the side that would like to play with these guys because there isn't a lot of risk here  -  but that money is waiting to see sales too  -  once that happens we should see really interesting days.

Part of testing done at MSHA will be how robust the network is  ( AS WELL AS EXPLOSION PROOF ).  They would set down some nodes and walk around unplugging 1 or 2 emulating a cave in and see if they route properly and keep a comm link open.  As far as I can tell there is a double edge safety factor here. 

1.   Cave-in occurs and they can still communicate with the minor(s) involved and can be told exactly how far down the tunnel they are.  So after some dead reckoning on the surface,  a hole can be started very quickly that will get right to their location. 

2.   Cave-in occurs and the network is completely inoperable.  But the system registered where they last were as a reference point.  Perhaps they are in touch with the surface frequently and the surface knows they were 20 ft. down the new L-2 Hallway doing some drilling or whatever which allows the surface some pretty dead reckoning on where they are right this minute. 

Don't forget that mostly what survival means to a lot of the trapped miners is water and air right away.  They can lay there for a day or two with superficial injuries and survive those as long as they can breathe and don't dehydrate.  If they can communicate while they are trapped,  then this system was worth it's weight in gold to the families and miners who can keep each others spirits up while rescue operations are underway. 

The value add resales partnerships going seem to be competitive with the other solution(s) that get discussed here and we have no way of knowing what they mean to ACT financially - or if they are just aiding the motivation to buy our product. 

I'm not sure on a technical level what is better about us.  McWhirter seems to tout that we have "built a better mouse-trap" and that we should see our fair share of the business that will fall out of the Miners Act deadline over the next month or so or year or so. 

We just don't know how much that is and we just don't know when China will start and put in enhanced safety equipment into their coal-mines.  The canaries are getting really tired over there and some are not waiting for an accident,  they are just plain committing suicide.

So it's all a gamble.  Vassa thinks it's all a pump... was shorting the stock and is now going long until July  (really that is NOT LONG...  that is an introduction).  None of what Vassa is saying sounds well thought out or objective,  negative or otherwise,  so I can't figure his angle at all or evaluate his negative viewpoint - no disrespect intended.  Others are exuberant and saying GO ACT GO !!!  which again is nothing to evaluate on.  Some are saying that we will start landing orders merely because they really really really want us to land orders.  Pretty tough to decide based on that.

One of our friends here has been dropping some very good TA on me and I wish he would share it with the board but I think there are so many varied opinions on TA he just isn't interested in debating and hassling with anyone... so I alone have been getting the benefit of his wisdom.  Even this pullback hasn't scared him off.  He has event points and trigger points and doesn't speculate on what the stock MIGHT DO,  just what it IS DOING.  He is still holding strong.

Personally,  I've seen this story before where the prospects were wildly exciting.  But I have never seen the snare factor before where there was forward anticipation based on the technology being good,  as well as a tail wind such as the Miners Act.  All companies that sell similar (whether inferior or superior to us) have to benefit in the near term because of MSHA requiring significant improvements in mine safety as it pertains to underground mining.  WE HAVE TO SEE business heading our way.  This makes me optimistic about our prospects over the next few months.

Sorry for the long-windedness but I just didn't want to say   GO ACT GO !!!  as an investment thesis.

DISCLOSURE: 

I know absolutely nothing about what takes place in a mine disaster rescue operation.  I have assumed everything that I have stated.  You may want to do some research on mine disasters and what priorities ACT will help them with or if "NOT WORKING" is an option as touted by Vassa.  Maybe some of the "miner" investors that read here could talk about their experience in the field and whether or not there is specific risks to ActiveMine not proving itself in a disaster.

Either way,  keep doing research,  keep asking questions here,  keep waying the answers carefully with what makes sense to you.