RE: Elbow River Elbow River Q3 results usually are very strong. Management own forecast is that Elbow River will contribute up to 70% funds to the AVF dividends.
If the oil by train trend continue Elbow River easily can generated over 20 million cash flow or ~$0.40/sh .
If you apply very conservative 5 X cash flow multiples Elbow River can be worth at list $2 per share. In addition Elbow have no long term debt and only $14 million drown (as of end of Q2) on their revolving loan at 4.6% interest. With multiples X 7.5 you have a $3 per share for Elbow River.
The third quarter is expected to be very solid.with results similar to the same quarter of 2011 due to continued strong forecast demand for crude by rail. Crude oil is now expected to be Elbow River’s largest product sales segment passing butane as the traditional sales leader.
The third quarter of 2012 will also mark Elbow River’s initial physical asset ownership with an investment in a rail handling facility in north-west Alberta. The facility will enable Elbow River to initially ship an additional 2,000 Bbls/d of heavy crude in late third quarter with the ability to expand to handle up to 10,000 Bbls/d if demand continues and rail cars can be sourced.