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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum AvenEx Energy Corp AVNDF

GREY:AVNDF - Post Discussion

AvenEx Energy Corp > Merger may be only option...
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Post by MikeC16 on Feb 12, 2013 2:28pm

Merger may be only option...

If you are in a position such as I am, holding over 6000 shares at an average of 4.31$, this merger may be our only hope if Avenex wishes to continue on without Elbow River.  Obviously this was our crown jewel and the only reason to hold Avf the last while.  I have been in since the Avenir days.

The only good side of this is I also hold PKI, at $12.04, so I will still get my piece of Elbow River either way.

I am voting in favour (actually already have) and hoping for a pop and a sale so I can reinvest in something worth owning and recoup some of my loss.

Definitely not holding, obviously share holder happiness is not a priority here any longer .......

Comment by Kingscourt on Feb 12, 2013 6:13pm
Congrats on your Parkland Mike. Bloomberg had a pretty solid article on them yesterday. https://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-11/parkland-top-riskless-return-on-record-oil-gap-corporate-canada.html  Maybe we should have kept Elbow River, sold off the rest of the assets and approached Parkland for a merger. I agree with your comments and hope you are right so that I may do the same. I ...more  
Comment by Joe454 on Feb 12, 2013 6:29pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by Kingscourt on Feb 12, 2013 7:08pm
On the contrary Joe. If we simply accept the fact we will never change anything and just move on, we will indeed never change anything. I have appreciated your optimism throughout these debates, but taking two companies that couldn't afford to pay a dividend and mashing them together with another company that was having trouble paying its dividend, in my humble opinion, does not produce a ...more  
Comment by Joe454 on Feb 12, 2013 8:10pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by pennydredful on Feb 12, 2013 11:09pm
Many  have  followed your advice  and  voted  with their  feet  , the  smell  is so bad, resulting  in sharp  price  declines  for all.
Comment by Kingscourt on Feb 13, 2013 1:24am
Joe, you are correct on the 35% - 40% dividend pay out ratio, but with the $80 to $90 million expected 12 month capital expenditures, this results in a 100%-115% overall payout ratio. In plain english this translates to a 0 - negative 15% profit, making it impossible for dividend increases, share buy backs, debt repayment, wise acquisitions (all attributes of a good company) and furthermore ...more  
Comment by Joe454 on Feb 13, 2013 9:11am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by Kingscourt on Feb 13, 2013 10:02am
Love the optimism Joe. I hope you turn out to be right. In the meantime, I'm off to buy a toaster! ;)
Comment by pwalk140 on Feb 13, 2013 10:31am
Kingscourt, you really need to do your research before making such a comment...history speaks for itself. "while leaving the management from the smaller, more poorly run company at the helm"
Comment by rad10 on Feb 13, 2013 11:26am
Kingscourt is bang on Pwalk - It is the fluffers that are short on facts and long on fearmongering................  (Paying Pace and Charger for non completion after a failed merger vote - is a classic example of fearmongering fluff)   How much return on investment has there been since the Charger IPO - my brief look suggested  > 80% capital erosion.
Comment by pwalk140 on Feb 13, 2013 11:37am
The Charger management team has extensive experience running a dividend paying entity, Provident Energy Trust. Provident shareholders realized a ~210% total return (including cash distributions of ~$1.9 billion) during Tom Buchanan’s ~9 year tenure as President and CEO of Provident (S&P/TSX returned ~90% over the same period). This team grew Provident from its origin in 1993 as Founders Energy ...more  
Comment by Kingscourt on Feb 13, 2013 11:45am
pwalk, would you mind elaborating? I have been reading up on Buchanan's work at Provedent and see that he stepped down in 2010 before the stock could regain its 2005 levels. I was speaking more directly to his Charger dealings though. It appears as though the stock has done poorly since mid 2010, even after the 2011 merger of Charger, Sirius, and Silverback. I find it interesting that much of ...more  
Comment by pwalk140 on Feb 13, 2013 11:59am
The history on Provident: It was a upstream trust company that later acquired midstream assets and management, a hybrid if you will. With this formula there would be a constant supply of cash flow regardless of the markets. If the markets were down the upstream business would unperform, as would every other, but the midstream business would flourish due to the frac spread, and vise versa when ...more  
Comment by pwalk140 on Feb 13, 2013 12:03pm
As with Charger, Tom and company did not come in until the deal in February 2012, closing March 2012. Due to the gas price and markets at the time they were hoping to raise $140+M but were only able to raise $65M.
Comment by Kingscourt on Feb 13, 2013 12:52pm
Thanks very much for the info. Are you concerned that they didn't anticipate receiving less than half the funding they were hoping for? And if so, what are your concerns moving forward?
Comment by pennydredful on Feb 13, 2013 1:05pm
Charger   tried  shortly  before  this  deal  to  raise   10M   at  about  .30    but   this  was  a  non  starter   as  no buy  interest   existed  .
Comment by pwalk140 on Feb 13, 2013 1:28pm
There's always concern about not raising your expected captial, but with Charger the investment was with the management team. Their hope was for 140M, but that doesn't mean they didn't plan to receive less, it did handcuff them though. Here's the way I see it, good or bad will depend on your view. With the merger you basically get Chargers Management team, the team that ran ...more  
Comment by Kherson on Feb 13, 2013 3:01pm
Interesting: https://www.fiveforhowling.com/2013/2/4/3946874/could-bill-gallacher-save-the-phoenix-coyotes Kherson
Comment by Kingscourt on Feb 13, 2013 5:42pm
Pwalk, your info is much appreciated. I will maintain my reservations about the financials of this merger, however, your confidence and knowledge of this new management is comforting. I am led to believe they have served you well. As far as the Avenex management goes, I won't speak on behalf of other shareholders, but my dissatisfaction stems from their lack of transparency and watching my buy ...more  
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