Post by
mrmomo on Jan 18, 2024 8:54am
The Good, Bad & REDiculous......
Regarding the news release & update the company just released yesterday........These are my thoughts on this, and as always, you can take them to the bank as a good assessment of their current situation OR you can dismiss outright as you please. THe CHOICE is your to make! Enjoy!
The GOOD........I'll skip this for now, for "good" reason as there's not much to say, But what little there's to say MEANS alot.
The BAD........Well, thhis will be the core of the discussion, right here. As most of what there is to say fits into this section unfortunately. First off, we'll be VERY frank & honest here! These fools at Birch were screwed if they did and totally screwed if they did not. What does this mean? It means that when it came to cutting that REDiculous dividend, THAT should have NEVER been, they were F* either way. And that's the honest truth! And they have only themselves to blame for this mess!
Cut......and all the retail & institutional investors who've been hanging on for all this time SOLELY for the crazzzy divy all flee to greener pastures. Don't cut, and the whole market including the professional shorts & borkers were gonna penalize the company to no end UNTIL they took the appropriate actions by cutting that crazzzy divvy. And round & round we go? Dizzy yet? You bet! So their solution? Do a half a** job by meeting half way trying to please half the folks and pissing off the other hal. The result? Nobody's really happy and everyone's upset & frustrated thinking about dumping the stock. Deja vu? And visions of Budweiser anyone? You bet!
This was really the MAIN point of contention here and the rest in that 100 page report is irrelevent & falls into our next eound of discussion.....THe REDiculous, because that's what it really is, and there are NO other words to desribe it than that! Personally, i was dearly hoping that they would NOT cut because that would have been indicative of smart mgmt & a brighter future for s/h, especially those long term dedicated ones who've been holding for years for ages (which 'im glad i'm not ONE btw as i'm here for only one reason!). But it wasn't meant to be!
The REDICULOUS.......Well, after reading that 100 page doctoral thesis, which in my mind read from something out of the 10 commandments, you can only really make one soild, decent & aboslute conclusion here. These guys are totally lost & crazy and things are only gonna get worse for s/h because of it f. Why? Well, if you read between the lines, this 100 point doctoral thesis is basically a grandiose justification of WHY they should carry on as is & keep their very lucrative cushy jobs. Their reasoning here, by carefully & intenttly detailing each point is THEM telling us that were here to stay and this is why. That's really the jist of this overly long update....
If these guys, meaning Birch mgmt & bod, had ANY common sense, and sense of both empathy & sympathy for the plight of their investors, they would have taken the route that should have been taken long ago. Which is call it quits and sellout. BUT NO, they've gone totally in the opposite direction and have battened down the hatches & circled the wagons by doubling & tripling down on their crazzzy reasoning & objectives. They are here to STAY and they want ot make sure you guys know it & get it.....and that's that!
In the end, i would have HOPED this would have turned out differently, not to potentially turn into another Pipestone or Painted Pony III, because after this 100 point doctoral thesis update, this is where it's heading unfortunately. The only difference between Pipestone & Birch is the MO of mgmt, but the end will be the same.
As for the The GOOD, which i had mentioned earlier, if there are ANY good points to take away from this report. There is......but just one. And it was a good one, for a short period while it lasted IF things would have turn out differently. What is it? It's the fact they are/were UNHEDGED for the future. But unfortunately for Birch, and bascially everyone else in the Canadian O&G patch, this was short lived, not meant to be, and TRUMP's return to form basically trashed the whole idea & scene regarding this "potential' outcome. Drill baby drill it is......8)
Conclusion? The most obvious one, at least for me anyways, i made the wrong bet and will pay for it. As you all know, i took a very modest, small position HOPING Birch mgmt would smarten up, see the light & things would turn out differently. And with this 100 point REDiculous thesis, it's pretty obvious thats NOT going to happen and they are here to stay and will go down with the ship if they have to if it comes to that......once again! They are NOT selling out to anyone anyime soon and they made sure they got the point across and you understood that!
So my losses here, and yes they will be losses for now until i decide what to do & when to GTHO, will be very minimal compared to most. I came in at about $6.50 and i'm pretty confident i can get out with minimal damage or none at all before gthe S really hits the fan! For most, this will NOT be the case, unless your DCA is well below $6. So most will loss BIG here in the end, when Trump takes office .....again......and the sector gets crushed......again.
How will the stock react today? Not sure. In normal times, this should take a 10% to 15 % haircut after a cut like that, BUT it's not certain it will because A LOT of that has alreay been factored & built into the stock, with a dramatic drop of 30% in the last few months. So how much more does it really have to drop? Personally, i don't see this dropping lower than $5 and at the worst, with current energy pricing and market condition, at the worst should hang around that area, give or take a few pennies.
Remember folks, now that a cut has been made, this will be a seasaw battle between those passive investors fleeing for geener pastures and the company insiders & value /baragin hunters supprting the stock.......So who really knows where this will eventually settle down? It will definitely needva few days, maybe up to a week to see where the market will RE-VALUE this. For me, i'll be looking for a good oppotunity to GTHO, hopefuly some dead cat bounce or short lived upward push from this announcement can provide that, but that remains ot be seen Y& not guaranteed.
That's ALL for now, i hope some of what i said helps you out in your own investment decisions and gives you a clearer picture of what's really going on here.......later folks...
GLTA