RE:REVIEWVery rational balanced approach as always whatdoiknow... I'd like to add a few points to ponder whatdoiknow123 wrote: Thought I might start off this week with a few thoughts if anyone is interested as I have been mulling over recent events and some recent posts and board activity. These are purely my own reflections with no knowledge other than that gleaned by reading, interpreting and also trying to read between the lines of information available in public. I am neither trying to ramp or de-ramp ( depending on your own interpretation of my thoughts ) so take or leave it at face value:
1. SHARE PRICE: it seems obvious to me that this share is being played by traders, shorters, vultures( bashers) and possibly a few pumpers. Possibly..!!! When I first came onto this board thats all there were until a few of us started to bring reality to the board just as you've done. We have being seeing wild swings in the SP on relatively low volumes and will possibly continue to do so until definate news is released. We have seen several new posters ( mostly negative) appear all of a sudden trying to " help" us with our analysis, out of the goodness of their hearts. Contrary to many of their posts I do not believe that there is any known negative out there yet as, if there were, we would be seeing much bigger volumes and a big sell-off. They are clearly trying to influence and I ,personally, will not be influenced as I have a shareholding that I am comfortable with and will be neither buying nor selling until thing . Everyone has to do as they deem best, the only advice I would give is to make your own decision based on knowledge, DD and personal circumstances but do avoid beeing inluenced of frightened by the scare stories posted by some dubious characters.
2. FDA, HC, Saudi and other approvals.
Momoney wrote:
this test will NOT be cleared for home use with the data that has been supplied to the FDA.. at best it will be available through your doctors appointment.. makes that 15 minutes rather a mute point really.. the sensitivity and specificity were too low to pass the "home use" barrier of entry..
There may be some truth in part of what he says.I personally also do not think that they will have gone for the Non- Prescription Approval as it is difficult to get, they probably didn´t have enough time to prepare for it and it is not necessary for them at this stage of their development. I believe that they will probably have applied for, and will almost certainly be granted, the same Approval as has been given to the Abbott. Would that mean that they would be limited to the same uses as Abbott or as Momoney suggests only through a doctors´ appointment? NOT AT ALL. True I should have made it clearer that it would be administered through a facility with trained staff as you noted..
This Approval in the USA would allow sales by Prescription to all doctors but also to all Organisations (Rockefeller, Gates etc.) Schools, Workplaces etc.etc. where the use would be supervised by trained staff and under medical guidance even at a distance.
The Abbott test would not really be suitable for such screening uses because at present it has no evidence of effectiveness in Asymptomatic patients whereas Sona does and it would be up to these users to decide when it would be of use and in which circumstances.
Outside of USA it would be up to each Regulatory Body to decide what they allow. We have already seen that SaudiVax think it appropriate for their regional Screening Programme and I feel that others will likely follow suit giving the Sona test a massive market.
3. SAUDIVAX. The more I look at this arrangement the more intriguing I find it. Let´s look at their involvement:
a. They were involved in the testing programme for FDA Approval submission,
b. They have produced their own releases on the results and have given even more detail than Sona, listing Asymptomatic results etc.
c. They are now responsible for setting up manufacturing facilities locally
d. They are also now responsible for submission for Saudi Approval
e. They may in fact have a position in SONA and its to their own benefit to promote the company they have shares in... thus a biased approach... although SONA's data does warrant a positive stance IMHO. $1000/sh or even $100 is a stretch as you well know..!
It is clear that it would be sensible to use their well-known influence and contacts with the Saudi Authorities which make them ideal to help Sona pursue their goals but is the above an indication that they may be taking an even more important role. I wonder (and it is only a thought) whether their very active ongoing role , more active certainly than a simple clinical test partnership) might just be the indication of a possible licensing partner in the offing with SAUDIVAX completely responsible for the MIDDLE EAST/ FAR EAST allowing SONA to concentrate on the Rest of the World?
We already know from the SaudiVax mission statement of their intention, with the help of the Saudi Government to control the KSA, GCC and OIC markets. We know of the control and hegemony of KSA over the other Organisations and their desire to consolidate their role as leaders of the Muslim World. What better way than to help them through this crisis?
If this is the case, and it is only a hunch, then that would be fantastic news for Sona. The OIC has a population of more than 1.8 Billion.
4. VACCINE
we may get a vaccine in the coming months but, if so, it will be rushed and many, if not most, will refuse to take it. It seems as if the Oxford trial is the most advance but ask yourself why the manufacturers insist that the British Government gives tham a cast-iron binding agreement that the Company will not be liable for any damages in the event of subsequent side-effects. If it is deemed safe why do they need that assurance?
In any event the advent of a vaccine will not affect the need for mass screening and mass testing for some 12-18 months or longer. Do you think Abbott are building 2 new manufacturing plants for fun?
Anyhow I think that many interesting updates are in the offing for Sona and personally see a significant upside in the SP if even only part of it comes to fruition. There will likely be some improvements on the test in the coming months and if the whole package comes together then who knows what the SP will be.