RE:RE:RE:KeyBlizzy420 wrote: This has been the best week since getting the license and the stock moving up 129% off those 3.5 cent lows. A lot of vindication in doubling down over and over again and watching that average share price drop while second guessing myself to whether this would all work out. Now a week later I am more than half way back to my break even point and considering my first SPR purchase was at 85 cents, it is quite an accomplishment. This has been a wild story and now we have suffered through the hard times to get to where we are today. We have been patient and we are starting to be rewarded. With 360,00kg of pot harvested during Croptober we should really start seeing price compression in the oils sector and the wholesale flower market. This benefits $proutly if they need to purchase biomass to create the Infuz2o it should be at a friendly price.
As for the comments on Cresco, I do not share ALL of the thoughts that SUM does. He is right about the Canadian LP's. They had their day and only a few players will emerge as big players in that market, but there is room for more than the big 3, especially if the US opens up imports of Cannabis. Why would the Canadian companies go so crazy with MASSIVE grow ops unless the doors to the US will be opened and they want to be positioned for that day. Still the big LP's are not a great investment and Canopy which is the cream of the crop is WAY over valued based on any traditional metric.
The US however might be on the precibus of Canada in 2017. the euphoria that will come to their market should mirror the hype in Canada. The problem in Canada was all the debt coming due at a conspicuously similar time frame. Fall of 2020 (right now) is when a lot of the Convertible Debentures we are so fond of have come due for more than just Sprout. This killed the market, the raises, the short tactics and all of that good stuff destroyed the Cannabis market and a lot of the retail investors in the process. This is set to happen with many cannabis companies in the US in 2023. The run of US cannabis companies in 2021 and early into 2022 will be very lucrative to be a part of, but if it is filled with acquisitions and and insane company valuations then any investor needs to get that money off the table before it all falls apart in mid 2023. BUT who wants to miss that run of insane prices? I know I don't! I am well positioned to take a ride on a few of them and get out while the going is good.
When I realized that all the LP's in Canada were doomed I started moving some money into the US and a lot of that money landed in $proutly. I was fortunate to get out with some profits, but my realization was that technology will lead the cannabis conversion from the black market to the licensed market. There needs to be something unique about a billion dollar company and since I can grow my own weed in the backyard I don't think there is any special about an LP.
My suggestion is to ride the US hype train and the uplistings of big companies like TRUL, GTII, Cresco, Curaleaf etc to the US stock exchanges. Once the US retail market can invest in their own companies that stuff is going to jump off!!
$proutly will outperform all of them in the longterm, but if you have other money to diversify that portfolio, the US pot market is going to be a fun ride for the next 12 - 18 months.
I agree with you Blitz. For now, there is room for more than just three major LPs in Canada. The legal Canadian markets have presented early born Canadian companies with the opportunities to network and establish branches abroad making investors a killing! However, this was short lived. Overvalued, over extended and over regulated sums up the Canadian LP companies of today.
Unfortunately, a lot of the progress made at home and abroad have been pulled back and or cancelled out right. In 2020 we witnessed LPs closing farms, sale lease backs, and out right bankruptcy along with multiple partnerships in Australia, EU, and Africa, which at the time, seemed to be a golden ticket, fall short and die. Some even before even getting started. Millions wasted.
The smaller Canadian companies that do not have backing from conglomerates are not at the top of their game at the moment. Even those that do are like you said, not accurately valued. But, companies like Canopy with ties to Constellation and Acreage, still over valued or not, are here to stay and will not want to share any part of an already shabby Canadian market with Cresco and the likes. These large co are waiting for the smaller Canadian companies to finally die off. The bigger companies do not even want to buy them out let alone share with Americans.
When the US federally legalizes cannabis, it will not be shipping cannabis from Canada. At least not long term. Sure there will be LP company partnerships and perhaps some trade agreements for the cheap overly produced cannabis Canada has vaulted.
But, the hard working, or should I say over worked and under paid farmers of America will convert those crops to cannabis very quickly. They will do it to make America great again and to also receive the incentives the government, Monsanto, Dowdupont and others will offer. It just happened with hemp. Wait till the “good stuff” is legalized. Corn/wheat doesn’t pay the bills like cannabis will, the move has already been made. Hemp crops convert quite easily to Marijuana crops.
My point. Cresco is doing great at the moment. They look healthy at $10 and performing well in the US. Unfortunately, Origin House is not going to propel them to a top tier Canadian LP. Also, when federal legalization occurs, the products they sell will be overly produced. They need a new edibles/technological game plan to survive long term.
My theory, American LPs will be much stronger than Canadian ones over time and many partnerships and mergers will take place. You are absolutely right, a lot of money will be made. Just like the intro of Canadian legalization. I suspect it will be much better with the loser government regs and allowed to flourish. Hence, stiffer competition and not all co will survive. Just my thoughts.