Read if you need a boost! I found this commentary on ceo site and thought it was very well said and worth a post over here.
enjoy!
Biotech675 Valuation and possible near term scenarios The way I see it now, at 0.63 cents, this play is pretty well completely de risked. Ofcourse there is manipulation, just like everywhere else on the CSE. At the end of the day, the fundamentals are there, keep conviction in your trade and remember nothing goes straight up. I’m sitting very comfortable with just under 200,000 shares at 0.62 avg. We’ve heard the following now re safetest from the presentation yesterday: -NDAs active ATM. This tells us it’s not a question of if they have interest, it’s a question of how much. -Ramping up production capabilities adding an ADDITIONAL 5,000,000 per month capacity. Why do this if you don’t have the interest? Management has a history of staying quiet and over delivering as well. -CGO noted clearly that they needed to secure production capabilities prior to accepting sales as if they had them in the bag. He also noted that although 5,000,000 was a big step, they’re looking to secure further production capacity due to the demand experienced so far. -CGO also hinted at government interest in the presentation. -Online E-commerce store being develop to deal directly with consumers -First mover advantage in Brazil 200M population -FDA EAU approval -CEO personally funded the company with a $10,000,000 secure note -Tightly held by insiders, very tight float -It’s a priority to uplist quickly, they have a near term target of 300M NAV or a sp of $4.11. Valuation: We’ve established the NAV currently sits at 75M or $1.00 sp. -At the end of 2017, this ran to $4.25 on hype alone with the crypto boom. We are possibly heading into another crypto bull market which could have a large effect on hype with the SP -No orders are received, safetest flops and revenues increase over times to previous levels from their other investments which were suppressed due to Covid. (Highly unlikely and completely derisked at this SP IMHO) -They get 1M per month in sales contracts. This translates to 120M-240M per year in rev. We’ve established VST owns 20% of them but the way everything is structured, they look to get closer to 40% net. Call it $2-$5 per test for an easy calculation(depending on the margin and final cost between $10-$20 per test retail). This translates to 24M-60M in earnings for VST. At a conservative 7X multiple (not basing on NAV due to the high likelihood of a buyout) you’re looking at an addition of 168M-420M to the Mcap. Add that to the 75M current NAV and it puts you at around $3.30-$6.75 possible SP. Now this is all spec at this point, it could go many different directions with all they have in the pipeline. I’ll personally feel better once they get to $1.00 first, but when contracts are announced, all bets are off. This is trading just like SONA in the early stages, people are grossly underestimating the potential here, not just with safetest, but with everything else in the pipeline. Here is the presentation for anyone who wants to fact check: https://www.webcaster4.com/Webcast/Page/2019/37201