GREY:CAZFF - Post by User
Post by
Whitehellon Nov 14, 2013 11:45pm
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Post# 21908353
Third Quarter updates
Third Quarter updates
Well, i've been looking at it tonight, it's not as good as i was expecting but it's more a problem of timing as i see it... From there 12 wells updates, I think only the lennox and Copperline were producing in the quarter, which make 8-10 wells weren't online during the quarter... as they states : "These increases did not include production from the Madera wells due to delays in bringing them online. In addition to the Madera wells, the wells at Gateway, West Copperline and Jazzmaster should all be contributing to production and revenue streams in the next quarter".
That being said and having high decline well with frac, i'm not that suprise to see prod going only from 223 bopd to 397 (which is still a 78 % increase Q-o-Q). Since most of the updated well are at the testing or producing stage, i think we'll have a much better idea of the capacity of this program. still think we could achieve 1 k at exit target if they can hit average type curve they are hoping for but we'll see...
With the actual fixed cost of 1,4 MM G&A, and the finance cost of app 800 k, they need approximately 3,88 MM$ of revenue to post positive CF pre change in non-cash working item. At 95 $ per barrels, this would mean around 450 bopd. So I think we will have a pretty good idea once all is operational...
As a Shareholder, i just hope they post a PR once all or most of the wells are operational to give us an actual flow rate and not wait until Next march for YE report to keep us inform...
Later
white