RE:RE:RE:RE:What UpFor CEC to bring online 1,237 BOPD, $10 million, and an additional $31 million to increase production a further 2,990 BOPD. Money they do not have.
- The first stage of commercial development is at Sawn Lake Central (where Andora is operator with a 75% working interest) to reactivate the existing SAGD facility and wellpair and drill of an additional wellpair. On a 100% working interest basis, the estimated cost is $10 million and forecast production is 1,237 BOPD. A further expansion is forecast in year three with the drilling of three more wellpairs plus facilities work, which are estimated on a 100% working interest basis, at a capital cost of $31 million to increase production to 2,990 BOPD. Regulatory approval for the Sawn Lake commercial operation to 3200 BOPD was received in December 2017.
- Thus far, WCS for 2023 is $52.85, not $87.81 as per 2023 prediction. Seems to me they will not bring online Sawn Lake unless there is a significant price increase of WCS. They do not have the $10 million to bring online the startup production, let alone the $31 million to increase phase two production. No production equals no revenue. Jeff will have to pull a rabbit out of a hat type deal just like VLE did x 2. The Thailand VLE newcomer scooped two remarkable deals right out from under Jeff's nose. Haven't found any new information with regards to the yet again Thai auction 2023. Who knows even if it will occur this year. IMO, Canasia will have to get a VLE type deal to get some production (revenue) to bring online SL production. With CEC share price at a mere 20 cents, raising funds would dilute existing shareholders to a large degree. That leaves taking on debt and we all know how taboo that is here. With the interest rate increases we have seen this past year that would be a bad idea. So its dilution, debt, or a VLE rabbit out of a hat Thai deal. The status quo isn't an option. Again, this is only IMHO.
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For risked resources and values, the evaluation assigned an 85% chance of development for Sawn Lake. |
| 2 | Resources assessed at forecast crude oil reference prices and costs. |
| 3 | Bitumen production is forecast to commence in 2023. |
| 4 | The reference prices for heavy oil per barrel (Western Canada Select "WCS" 20.5 API in Canadian dollars)
are $87.81 for 2023, $74.99 for 2024, $76.49 for 2025, $78.02 for 2026, $79.58 for 2027, $81.18 for 2028,
$82.80 for 2029 and increase at 2% per year thereafter. |
| 5 | Bitumen revenue per barrel for these resources is $23.31 less than the associated WCS reference price in
2023 and the differential increases approximately 1.5% per year. |
| 6 | The reference prices for natural gas (AECO-C Spot price per MMBTU in Canadian dollars) are $4.29 for
2023, $3.02 for 2024, $3.08 for 2025, $3.14 for 2026, $3.21 for 2027, $3.27 for 2028, $3.34 for 2029 and
increase at 2% per year thereafter. |