Connacher Oil & Gas Ltd CLLZF

RE: cll - bvi (comparison before takeover)

[strzelin]

Good effort in your analysis. Just like to make some correction to your numbers. 1.CLL has 238 (fully diluted)mln shares ,20% more then you posted (198mln) 2.Esteimated by CLL management average POD1 production in 2008 will be 7200 bbl/day. 10000bbl/day production is expected in Q3/2008 not in the Q1 as you suggest. Just imagine the logistics of 10 tracks(250bbl) x 4 loads each per day to Suncor or Enbridge terminal . Hopefully planed $500 mln spending for 2008 (more shares to be issue) will include the pipeline. Expcted $65 mln cash flow from POD1 in 2008 will not cover the $500 mln CAPEX. If I can ask you the question.... Is your $15 target price in 2007 base on NAVPS model or EV/Oil flow or projected 2007/2008 cash flow per share. Could you please give us some indication if you can. For examle RJ (NAV model) has $4.9 target. My cash flow model for 2008 ernings has $5.2 target(basd on 270mln FD shares). Thanks,Jurek