Connacher Oil & Gas Ltd CLLZF

RE: CLL share price

[strzelin]

Sorry the previouse post did not work.Let see if this one will.

JUREK

"My SP forecast is based on technical view.A jump over the 4.5 can bring us to the early top reached in 2006 , although there could be some resistance also at the 5 to 5.25 range."/sharky

Totally agree with your technical resistance levels at $4.5 and $5.25.I would suggest that $5.25 is strong resistance as well.In 2006 CLL had two placement of common shares ( Feb and Sep) for the total of 15 mln shares at $5.25.As always this will generate strong selling.

Putting the technical on the side predicting the CLL SP IMO is next to impossible on the short and long term. I think that the only way CLL will move above $4.5 is recommendations from financial institutions.
Even successful POD1 operation (large oil flow) will not do it with out the backup from the brokerage houses.

In the next two months Cll has to come up with $80 to $100 mln.$35 mln they had at the end of Q2 is gone with successful commissioning of the POD1.Winter CAPEX will cost $50 -$70mln.

As I posted about the Q3 financial low NG prices and refining margins are not helping to generate free cash.Warming the POD1 reservoir will cost $3 to $5 mln.Also the $19.5 mln of first Oilsnad Loan installment is due in end of this year(2007)according to the loan schedule.

Getting new loans will be very difficult and management has no much choice.Cash in PDP shares ,issuing new common or convertible shares.This will keep the cap on CLL SP unless institutions will get the good deal and start to promote the stock.

UTS has similar problem. They were hoping to do major issue above $6.Additional weakens may come from the oil price.Oil prices traditionally peak on average the 3rd week of Oct and then decline until
Nov-Jan(9 times out of 10 in last 10 years).

Like I previously posted investors and the institutions are back to Oilsands stocks after the Sep 19 sell off . Most of the Oilsand stocks recover the loses and some of them are much higher. Smart money understand that increase in Royalties rates will have only modest effect .The one report I read had the CLL FNASV declining only by 5% if New Royalties are fully implemented.

Stock gain/loss since Sep19 to Oct12
BQI 0% Oilsand Quest
SU 0% Suncor
Energy
OPC -0.5% OPTI Canada
PBG +24% Petrobank Energy
ECA -2%
Encana
PXX +10% Pearl Exploration and Production
BTE.UN +2% Baytex INCOME
TRUST (BITUMEN PRODUCER)
COS.UN +0.1% Canadian Oilsands
Two under performing stocks:
CLL -7% Connacher Oil
UTS -6% UTS energy

Realistically I think that we may go well above $5.25 in May 2008 when Q1/2008
report good cash flow from POD1 and the investor will see what netback can
be generated from this reservoir.

JUREK